Its not just me either the track has some Peculiarities that's for sure but form is almost ignored this year and winners have been hard to find for me and looking at the results most other punters as well.
Decent races today so am hoping for better things but drawing my horns in never the less.
in the opener I like the chances of Jukebox Jury a lot its a smashing horse that will give its running likes the track has the speed and likes the track going and distance drawn 1 is a disadvantage but he scorched home last time and that has to have him right for this.
2.35 has some difficult types to weigh up over this mile will take my chances with Questioning who has pace and dropping back in distance is favoured over a quite motley crew
3.10 and a decent race - have been told to watch the betting on Dettori mount Man Of Action currently 40/1 its a nutter that has already been gelded since joining the yard but reports are its calmed down and stopped trying to mount all and sundry gets excited in the Visor but they are using it for the second time (as much to stop it tuning its head for a snack out of other runners) have looked at the stats for the race and found that its draw is all wrong in 20 ( 9 of 10 winners were drawn in the bottom 6 stalls) 9 of 10 winners came from the first 5 in the betting
Only one winner has gone off bigger than 12/1 in past 10 years. against those odds it seems forlorn but have taken some place odds on betfair and hoping to trade out if the money comes because of one more nugget - Saeed Bin Suroor’s (1-1-2) two runners in past 10 years have finished 1st and 2nd.
here are the stats - Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 3 to 5
· Carrying a penalty Green Destiny - Namecheck
· Officially rated 100 or higher Green Destiny Riggins Cai Shen The Rectifier Dance and Dance
· Finished in first 5 in a class 3 or higher in the last 30 days
· Won over 1M or 1M 1F
· Run in 12 or fewer handicaps
· Won or placed in a race worth 18K+
· Won a class 2 or higher
· Contested a listed or group race
· Trained by Roger Charlton or Saeed Bin Suroor
· Drawn 1 to 6
· Tends to race prominently
· From first 5 in the betting
To Be Honest this is too hot to go anywhere but down - the Prob fav Green Destiny has all the stats bar one Favourites (2-3-10) have won 2 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 1.00 over the past 10 years.- so its an each way bet for me with Namecheck and the aforementioned Man of Destiny
3.45 another nightmare to sort out because of tjhe ground though Hannon Yard insist the huge Harbour Watch will handle the g/frm ground he says "He is one of the best that we have got" (and they have won the last three of this race) if hes right then its a done deal
but finding one to follow him home leads me to Milshakes ride on Saigon - a half-brother to multiple sprint winner Tabaret, had beaten an odds-on shot on his debut on fast ground. He raced on the outside of his field here and came through with the runner-up, then managed to overcome interference from that rival to edge ahead near the finish. He still looked inexperienced and may have more to offer.
Good luck Guys
have a great days punting
Bob
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