The Pegasus Matron stakes for saturday 4th 2.40

The Coolmore Fusaichi Pegasus Matron Stakes is a group 1 race for fillies and mares, run over a mile and is part of the supporting card of Irish Champion Stakes Day at Leopardstown on Saturday 4th September. The race wa run at the Curragh up until 2001 and it was given group 1 status in 2004. It has been won by some very useful horses, such as Soviet Song and Attraction and British raiders have been fairly dominant in the past decade.
Going 

1:51am

Going change

Now good to firm, good in places from good to firm. Have had a bet with a pal that it will be good by the Coolmore Fusaichi Pegasus Matron Stakes (2.40) as it is still lightly raining.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

	W	P	R
3yo	7	10	63
4yo	2	5	17
5yo	1	2	6
6yo+	0	1	3

Since the race became a group 1 in 2004:

3yos: 3-5-31

4yo+: 3-5-18

In the three years that 3yos won this as a group 1 only two of the seven older horses to run in it were priced under 16/1: (Peeress 2nd in 2006, Heaven Sent 2nd in 2009).

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners had won over a mile

9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out (5 won)

10 of 10 winners had won at listed level or above

Since this became a group one 6 of 6 winners had won a group race(4 were group 1 winners)

10 of 10 winners ran in last 45 days

Other Races

Falmouth Stakes winner (Music Show): 12 (1-1-2)

Coronation Stakes winner (Lillie Langtry): 6241 (1-1-4)

1000 Guineas winner: 23 (0-2-2)

Irish 1000 Guineas winner (Bethrah): 2533 (0-2-4)

Derrinstown Stud 1000 Guineas Trial winner (Bethrah): 288 (0-1-3)

Nell Gwynn Stakes winner (Music Show): 6 (0-0-1)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Falmouth, finishing 914

3 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Coronation Stakes, finishing 613

2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Nassau Stakes, finishing 22

2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the 1000 Guineas, finishing 65

2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Epsom Oaks, finishing 54

2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Sandringham Handicap, finishing 11

2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Epsom Oaks, finishing 54

Since this became a group one, 5 of 6 winners had run in the 1000 Guineas as 3yos, finishing 41965

Trainers

British-trained horses: 8-11-30

Irish-trained horses: 2-7-59

British-based trainers have dominated this race, having won 8 of the last 10 and since it became a group 1 they have won 5 of 6 and filled 12 of 16 places.

Jim Bolger (1-1-6) and Dermot Weld (1-1-6) are the only two Irish trainers to have saddled the winner of this race in the past 10 years.

This is one of the very few Irish group 1’s that Aidan O’Brien (0-3-14) has not trained the winner of in the past decade, despite having had 14 runners go to post.

Price

10 of 10 winners were priced 6/1 or below

All 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting, not a race to be looking for an upset.

Favourites (6-3-10) have won 6 of the last 10, including the last 3 and show a level stakes profit of 5.47.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Finished in the first 3 in a group race last time out

·         Ran in last 45 days

·         Won over a mile

·         Won a group race (preferably a group 1)

·         Ran in the 1000 Guineas as a 3yo Gile Na Greine and Music Show 

·         Trained in Britain

·         Priced 6/1 or below


  Selection and bet 
Looks to me if the trend stand up as ever the horse to beat must be the british trained Music show - as there are very few runners the forecast must be a reasonable bet and have coupled with Gile Na Greine - hopeing the ground has eased for this one to get in the frame second and with more ease will rev the forecast anyway - ran a stormer in the Falmouth but the 100gns form on g/sft impressed me the most