The Bet365 Gold Cup (formerly the Whitbread Gold Cup), which takes place at Sandown on Saturday 23rd April, is a grade 3 handicap chase run over 3 miles 5½ furlongs and it signals the end of the British national hunt season. It is always a hugely competitive race
The Racing calendar has started to become cruel for this race and entries dont look sparkling to tell the truth
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-2-10
7yo: 2-7-23
8yo: 3-7-41
9yo: 1-2-36
10yo: 1-4-39
11yo: 2-5-20
12yo+: 0-1-9
Horses aged 6 to 8: 6-16-74
Horses aged 9+: 4-12-104
Younger horses have held the call in this, with 6 of 10 winners being aged 6 to 8 from less than 42% of the total runners.
Of the 4 winners aged 9+, 3 had won a grade 2 or 3 chase previously and the other had won the Grade B Troytown Chase and was runner-up in the Irish Grand National on previous start.
Breeding
Irish bred: 5-5-85
French bred: 3-19-59
British bred: 1-4-27
USA bred: 1-0-4
Other: 0-0-3
Over past 7 years French breds have a record of 3-16-42, which compares well to horses bred in all other countries, combined record of 4-3-77. Fred bred horses have filled 22 of 29 places since 2004 and they represented only 35.3% of the total runners.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 11-0 or more: 2-7-49
Horses carrying 10-6 to 10-13: 4-10-46
Horses carrying 10-0 to 10-5: 4-6-59
Horses carrying 9-13 or less: 0-5-24
Horses carrying 10-0 to 10-13 have won 8 of the last 10 from approximately 59% of the total runners.
Top Weight: 507PF030P4 (0-2-10)
Both horses allotted top weight to have made the frame were ridden by 7lb claimers
Official Ratings
Horses rated 146 or higher: 2-6-33
Horses rated 132 to 145: 8-16-110
Horses rated 131 or lower: 0-6-35
8 of 10 winners were officially rated 132 to 145, though they have represented approximately 62% of the total runners.
Horses racing from out of the handicap: 2-5-41
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 on last completed chase start
8 of 10 winners had their last chase start in a graded contest (2 exceptions ran in class 2 chase worth 30K+)
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days
10 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times that season
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M 1F+
8 of 10 winners had run in 9 or fewer handicap chases (both exceptions finished 4th in previous year's race)
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases
6 of 10 winners were first or second season chasers
3 of 10 winners contested a novice chase that season
9 of 10 winners won a race worth 20K+
7 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded race
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Church Island): 54659 (0-0-5)
Badger Ales Trophy winner (Meanus Dandy): P (0-0-1)
Classic Chase winner (West End Rocker): 00 (0-0-2)
2 of 10 winners ran in Scottish National last time, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in Aintree Grand National last time, both unseating
2 of 10 winners ran in Stewart Family H'cap Chase, finishing 3P
2 of 10 winners ran in Racing Post Chase, finishing 57
2 of 3 novice winners ran in Scilly Isles Novice Chase, finishing 35
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in the Charlie Hall finishing 34
6 of 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival (2 Stewart Family H'cap Chase, 1 4M NH Novice Chase, 1 Ryanair, 1 Arkle & 1 World Hurdle)
8 of 10 winners had their last start in a Cheltenham chase or in Irish/Scottish/Aintree Grand National (both exceptions ran in a hurdle)
Trainers
Philip Hobbs (2-5-13) trained the winner in 2006 and 2008 and has filled 3 of the 7 places in past 2 years.
Paul Nicholls (2-8-27) won the race twice in the past decade with Ad Hoc (in 01 & 03).
Michael Hourigan (1-0-3) in 2010 and Ferdy Murphy (1-0-3) in 2007 are the only other 2 trainers with entries to have won this in past 10 years.
Irish trained runners (2-1-14) have won 2 of the last 10 runnings from just 8% of the total runners.
Price
7 of 10 winners were priced between 14/1 and 25/1
No strong trends on trends on the prices, though there have been a couple of long-priced winners in past 3 years.
Favourites (0-5-12) have a very poor record gaining no wins in the past 10 year. Level stakes loss of 10.00.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 6 to 8
· Carrying 10-0 to 10-13
· Officially rated 132 to 145
· French bred horses do well
· Had last run at Cheltenham, in a Grand National or over hurdles
· Ran at this season’s Cheltenham Festival
· Run in the past 50 days
· Run at least 3 times this season
· Won over 3M 1F+
· Won a race worth £20,000 or more
· Run in no more than 9 handicap chases (won no more than 2)
· Trained by Philip Hobbs, Paul Nicholls or in Ireland
Think this race will cut up quite a bit and therefore having put up form of previous races will strike them through over Friday and Saturday morning
Bob
No comments:
Post a Comment