Monday, 25 April 2011

Irish Grand National 25th April 2011

Irish Grand National Day at Fairyhouse  The race happens much later than usual this year, which means there’s a greater gap between it and its Aintree equivalent, and that could mean we see a few more runners make the journey over.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
·         Irish or French bred
·         Aged 6 to 9 (ideally 7 or 8)
·         Carrying 10-8 or less
·         Officially rated 125 to 136
·         Won over 3M+
·         Run at least twice this season & run in the past 50 days
·         Won at a right-handed track
·         Run in 6 to 13 chases (winning 2 to 4)
·         Contested no more than 9 handicap chases
·         Won a class 2 or higher chase worth 19K+
·         Ran in this season’s Paddy Power Handicap Chase
·         Finished in first 4 in last season’s Hugh McMahon Novice Chase
·         Had first run in a bumper/hurdle/point to point
·         Trained in Great Britain
·         Trained by D T Hughes, A J Martin, O McKiernan or M Hourigan

Price
It has been a race for outsiders recently with 5 of the last 7 winners being sent off between 20/1 and 33/1.
Favourites (0-2-12) have gained no wins and just 2 places in the past 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 10.00.

Love this race for calling up big price winners  and am going for a trend we have seen so much this year in a horse coming here with the right credentials that has been hurdling to keep its handicap mark down

 that horse is Caim Hill - Previous season's Hugh McMahon Chase winner has had three runs over hdles this year 2 wins over right handed tracks and value in its first handicap at 136 which it has already achieved over 3miles on good ground and 23k on soft - Won five bumper/hurdle races in a row earlier in career; and chases  around this time last year shaping with promise at Gowran latest; been nibbled at in market  blinkers tried first time.
 Bob

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