The Scottish Champion Hurdle 16th April 11

The Scottish Champion Hurdle takes place at Ayr on Saturday, 16th April,  at 2.50 Unlike its Cheltenham equivalent, the Scottish Champion Hurdle is a handicap, which means less classy hurdlers are given a chance to taste glory in the race, and lower rated horses have fared better in the past 10 years.

Below we take a look at the trends for past 10 runnings:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 0-1-4

5yo: 1-9-22

6yo: 4-3-22

7yo: 3-4-26

8yo: 0-0-8

9yo: 2-0-10

10yo+: 1-1-9

7 of 10 winners were aged 6 or 7, though that age group has represented approximately 47.5% of the total runners.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 2-7-41

Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 8-11-60

Horses carrying lower weights are strongly favoured. All 19 horses attempting to carry 11-0+ in this since 2001 have been beaten, and only 3 have been placed.

Top Weight: 6UP3UF897946F (0-0-13) has a shocking record in this.

Official Ratings

Horses rated 142 or higher: 2-5-38

Horses rated 141 or lower: 8-13-65

In the last 4 years all 12 placed finishers were officially rated 141 or lower.

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times since August 1st

9 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days

9 of 10 winners were 1st, 2nd or 3rd season hurdles

9 of 10 winners had 5 to 16 previous hurdles starts

7 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap hurdles

10 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicap hurdles

7 of 10 winners were rated 80+ on the flat (3 exceptions were all bumper winners)

6 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or higher hurdle, however 4 of the last 5 had won at no better than class 3, the trend is swinging towards less exposed hurdlers

Other Races

Defending Scottish Champion Hurdler (Overturn): 4 (0-0-1)

The great Sea Pigeon is only horse to ever win back to back runnings.

Swinton Handicap Hurdle winner (Eradicate): 1 (1-0-1)

Ladbrokes Greatwood Handicap Hurdle winner (Via Galilei): 2 (0-1-1)

Elite Hurdle winner (Nearby): 6 (0-0-1)

Scottish County Hurdle winner (Hunterview): F4 (0-0-2)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Swinton Hurdle, finishing 140

2 of 10 winners ran in the Imperial Cup, finishing 00

2 of 10 winners ran in the County Hurdle, finishing 32

2 of 10 winners ran in the Greatwood Hurdle, finishing F0

2 of 10 winners ran in Silver Cross H'cap Hurdle last time, finishing 01

2 of 10 winners ran in John Smith's H'cap Hurdle last time, finishing 23

Trainers

Philip Hobbs (2-0-6) has trained the winner twice in the last 10 years.

Donald McCain (1-0-2) trained Overturn to win the race last year, while Michael Scudamore (0-1-1) trained Gloucester to finish runner-up. Both horses are entered again this year.

Paul Nicholls (0-5-11) has seen 5 of his 11 runners make the frame but he has only won the race once, in 1999 with Fadalko.

Price

6 of 10 winners came from the first 2 in the betting

No very strong trends on prices for this race.

Favourites (3-5-11) have fared alright, gaining 3 wins and 5 places, showing a level stakes return of 0.00.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 6 or 7

·         Carrying 10-9 or less

·         Officially rated 141 or lower

·         1st, 2nd or 3rd season hurdler

·         Run in 7 or fewer handicap hurdles (winning no more than 3)

·         Officially rated 80+ on the flat (or won a bumper)

·         Has run in past 35 days

·         Finished in first 4 in County and/or Swinton Hurdle

·         Finished in first 3 in a h’cap hurdle at Aintree Festival last time

·         trained by Philip Hobbs

 am watching for the 9 yr old Cockney Trucker Johnson has dropped onto this one off 10-04 it is a very good horse in its own right its 9 yr old stat bucks the trends but in other respects has it in him on 8 of the counts -- the Run of Gary Moore Horses makes me think the best of Via Galilei is yet to come and he also fits the trends well --  

Good luck

 Bob