full Trends Scottish national 16th April 2011

The Coral Scottish Grand National takes place at Ayr on Saturday 16th April at 3.25  the ground is good . It is a grade 3 handicap chase, run over 4M ½F. With Paul Nicholls Neptunes Collonges, the majority of the runners this year could be racing from out of the handicap, though this does not necessarily preclude them from winning it.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 0-2-10

7yo: 1-10-38

8yo: 4-8-59

9yo: 1-4-42

10yo: 3-3-50

11yo: 1-3-40

Horses aged 8 to 10 have won 8 of the last 10 from approximately 63% of the total runners, however 7yos have filled 11 of 40 places from just less than 16% of the total runners.

In 2009 Hello Bud became the first horse aged over 10 to won the race since 1996. Horses aged 11+ have only made the frame 4 times from 40 runners in the past decade.

Breeding

Irish Bred: 5-20-132

French Bred: 3-6-57

British Bred: 2-3-39

American Bred: 0-1-6

Other: 0-0-5

No strong trends on breeding.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 11-7 to 11-13: 1-2-20

Horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6: 1-3-16

Horses carrying 10-6 to 10-13: 2-9-65

Horses carrying 10-0 to 10-5: 3-15-105

Horses carrying 9-13 or less: 3-1-33

There is no massive significant trend on the weights though 8 of the last 9 winners carried 10-9 or less.

Top Weight: 0751P0P2PP (1-1-10)

Horses racing from out of the handicap: 2-8-82

Horses carrying a penalty have gained 2 wins and 2 places from 8 runners, the other 4 all fell or unseated.

Official Ratings

Horses rated 144+: 1-9-36

Horses rated 132-143: 7-14-131

Horses rated 131 or below: 2-7-72

9 of 10 winners were officially rated 143 or lower (have deleted them from the VFB Print out)

The only winner rated higher than 143 was Grey Abbey, whose next 4 runs were wins in 3 grade 2 chases and a 5th in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners finished in the first 6 last time (3 won) Have scratched them from print out

7 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out

8 of 10 winners won a chase worth 15K+ (2 exceptions placed in 58K Grade 3 Chase)

10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or above chase

10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times that season

9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (exception was 2nd on only run over 3M+)

9 of 10 winners had run in at least 10 chases

10 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 16 handicap chases

9 of 10 winners had run in past 60 days

5 of 10 winners had won at Ayr (3 of other 5 having first course start)

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had first career start in a bumper or hurdles race (exception ran in a non-thoroughbred race in France)

Aintree Festival

In the last 10 years 38 horses who ran in the Aintree Grand National then ran in this race, none were successful and only 1 made the frame

2 of 10 winners ran in a handicap chase at Aintree Festival, finishing 51

Other Races

Previous season's winner (Merigo): 64 (0-1-2)

Grimthorpe chase winner (Always Right): U13 (1-1-3)

NH Chase Challenge Cup winner (Chicago Grey): 7P34P (0-2-5)

Summer National winner (Ouzbeck): 2P (0-1-2)

Midlands National winner (Minella Four Star): 7 (0-0-1)

Raceodds Handicap Chase winner (Blazing Bailey): PP (0-0-2)

3 of 10 winners ran in that season's Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 237

2 of 10 winners ran in the Somerset National last time, finishing 31

2 of 10 winners ran in Grimthorpe H'cap Chase last time, finishing 16

2 of 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival, both pulled up.

Trainers

Ferdy Murphy (2-1-11) has trained the winner twice in past 6 years.

Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-7), Andrew Parker (1-0-2) and Howard Johnson (1-0-3) are the only other trainers with entrants who have won it since 2001.

Paul Nicholls (0-4-21) has saddled several fancied runners in the past 10 years, yet he has not won the race and only gained 4 places.

Jeremy Scott (0-2-2) has trained Gone To Lunch to finish 2nd for the past 2 seasons.

Lucinda Russell (0-2-8) and Sue Smith (0-2-11) has also had a couple placed runners in past 10 years.

Price

9 of 10 winners went off 12/1 or bigger

This race has thrown up plenty of shocks recently with 5 of the last 10 winners going off at 18/1 or bigger, including a 66/1 shot winning in 2008.

Favourite (0-4-13) has not won the race since 2000 and show a level stakes loss of 10.00 over the past 10 renewals.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 7 to 10

·         Carrying 10-9 or less

·         Officially rated 143 or lower

·         Finished in the first 6 last time and posted their highest RPR

·         Won over 3M+

·         Won a class 3 or better chase worth £15K+

·         Run at least 10 times over fences

·         Run 3 to 6 times this season

·         Course winner (or having first start at Ayr)

·         Had first career start in a bumper or hurdles race

·         Bypassed Cheltenham and Aintree this season

·         Finished in first 7 in this season’s Hennessy Gold Cup

·         Ran in the Grimthorpe or Somerset National last time

·         Trained by Ferdy Murphy

·         Priced 12/1 or above

The stand out horse on the stats is Always Right rated 142 carrying 10-00 has won a chase worth 29K it fell on its only visit here falls short on only having 7 runs over fences has won on the ground and last time at Doncaster in Grimthorpe chase by 15l which means he can be rated higher than todays figure.

Saying all that I cannot let Ferdy Murphy horses Poker De Sivola go without a mention it won so well at cheltenham last year and the yard os coming back to form is one of the most Experienced chasers in the line up the problem is he ran well at cheltenham and they took him there again this year - but i did not see him asked at any stage unlike the year before I think that this is his target and Ferdy is as crafty as they come in placing animals

 Good luck will be dutching these two - have to give you Pams fancy as an outsider with big place chances - has gone for No Panic who ran so well for a long time at chelt before giving best and ran into a place last year at 40/1 and despite the Trends she is taking a chance on Merigo who won it last year and ran a similar race in preparation at doncaster this year  

 Good luck guys let me know what your on

 Bob

Result a really good race The presence of the 168-rated Neptune Collonges in topweight meant that only a quarter of the field were able to race off their correct handicap marks. It still looked a competitive edition of this historic marathon chase. It was run at a solid pace and only a handful were still in contention facing up to the final four fences.

One of the few in the handicap proper was BESHABAR, who produced a fine staying performance. Forcing the pace from an early stage, he jumped well all the way and kept finding for pressure, although he was all out in the end as the second and third close on him. A rangy chaser who stayed the 4m well when runner-up to Chicago Grey in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham, he is old for a novice at nine but has a relatively low mileage and he looks just the type for the Grand National next spring. His campaign will be geared towards that race.

Last year´s winner Merigo was 15lb higher this time round as he was racing from 12lb out of the weights. He failed to make the cut at Aintree, but this provided a very suitable alternative and he ran a big race, always chasing the pace. His tendency to jump out to his right cost him ground two out and he looked held in third landing over the last, but stayed on well to go down fighting. There is no reason why he should not be competitive in races like this again next season, although Aintree will not be on the agenda.

Always Right has made big strides this term since switching from hunter chases and beat Lothian Falcon and Merigo when taking the Grimthorpe at Doncaster latest. Racing from 12lb higher, being 3lb wrong, he made stealthy progress and loomed up as a big threat, but walked through the second-last and and was always just being held from there. He stayed this longer trip well.

There was a big gap back to Lothian Falcon, who weakened before the home straight but kept going for fourth. Now at the veteran stage but clearly still in fine heart, he was over a stone higher than at Doncaster, and wasn´t fitted with the cheekpieces he wore there.

1 Beshabar 15/2
2 Merigo 20/1
3 Always Right 15/2

4 Lothian Falcon 33/1