good read from NTf and worthy of a look guys - email from Ben

The first ever NTF Q&A session guest - Racing UK/Ch4 commentator and presenter Richard Hoiles

I'm pleased to announce that the first ever NTF Q&A session has now been uploaded to the site.

http://www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk/286/ntf-qa-richard-hoiles/

I hope you all enjoy the maiden installement of the NTF Q&A session.

4.20 newcastle 2miles 280911

Really do think this race will cut up quite a bit yet cannot move away from Jeu De Roseau who won so well over hdles at Sedgefield last time bred from Monjeu

 will be really up for it today and my main bet - dont have time to put up all the reasons 

am out the door before it can bang me bum on the way out


 Result --- They didn´t go much of a pace in this staying handicap with the result that a few took a grip and there wasn´t much covering the first seven at the line.

Considering the steady gallop, Irish challenger HUNTING TOWER did well to win from so far offthe pace and gain his first success on the Flat since July 2007. He has been successful five times over hurdles since that last Flat success so he remains capable under both codes.

First Rock was having his first try in a Flat race on turf having raced in bumpers and on the all-weather up until now. This was a decent effort too, as the way the race was run may not have been ideal, yet he was just about in front 2f from home but couldn´t withstand the winner´s late effort.

Jeu de Roseau, 5lbhigher than when winning over C&D in July and a winner over hurdles at Sedgefield last time, was off the bridle turning for home and the early pace wouldn´t have suited this proven stayer either, but he never gave in and battled all the way to the line.

3.20 Nottingham 280911

 Have been waiting for this run from Saskia´s Dream, after its run at Newmarket 170911 g/frm 1mile  "she was travelling well up the rail when short of room, and she stayed on well once in the clear but never had any chance given the way things panned out". currently 16/1 I expect her to be punted today. Jane Chapple-Hyam is a difficult trainer to get right and she is often punted down to good effect so betting will be watched. Bred From Oasis Dream, who produces decent sprint and middle distance animals, this slight drop in grade from 3 to 4 looks to play well to her mark. Draw is more acceptable today on the predicted good to firm ground and the extra distance will def play to her strengths.
 hopeless run and very disappointing 

distance race 1m6f Ffoss lass 4.20

Interesting field for this race now the going is soft - g/sft in places - the race has only been run once before so stats not available - won last year by Rugell who was carrying 9-9 and returning from a break.
 those of you who endure the blog over a time know I like these races for trading on Betfair as they give ample time to trade and have a preference for horses returning from a break cos the value is in the early exchanges for such horses as stables are more likely to wait till the track for money and only when they in the parade ring does money come from the rest of us punters.

Rastaban is a horse from a line packed with Stamina is a progressive individual and rightly heads the market IMO the going is an unknown really (though Diktat did have some form on it over 1 mile) today goes up in trip and encounters soft ground and not a good price at the moment. have put in a small lay and ready to green early as expect it to be held up
Slight Advantage has a better profile for the ground and distance that for sure -  an improving type, was well supported and turned in a career-best effort at salisbury g/sft 1m6f and has achieved this mark she handles quick ground, her best form has been with give underfoot. BTL will be closer to the prices already up


 lets turn to the animals that have a lay off and at the top is Just Rob who is an out and out stayer with great credentials over a distance and soft ground both flat and NH. not run for 452 days but Ian Williams can get horses out fresh and ready to run. unfortunately this yard are not so forthcoming in their internet news so you have to take its entry today without any quotes from the stable - however the current 22s on betfair doe make it a very interesting trading horse as its the yard that comes late for the price - generally 14/1 this horse can be  a very profitable BTL as the plan must be to bring its stamina in play and will shorten considerably for a nice profit. and green bet.

Oldrik is an old Monkey that runs so well fresh  and is well handicapped to win this in the ground has a touch of class even at this age in this field has achieved this mark after a layoff and again this horse can do it from the front or the back is the original bugger that can simply down tools at the start then pick up with a big run - will ask for a bigger that starting price before the off and a lay late.
 Here Endeth the write up for the only race will be trading on today  with the money all layed out on the highlited animals.


 Result - AND VERY GOOD TRADING RACE INDEED  --Again the action was up the middle of the track in the straight. The winner BECAUSEWECAN, just like when successful at Kempton on his previous start off 4lb lower over 1m4f on Polytrack, was allowed an uncontested lead. He had to go off fast enough to get the lead, but then slowed the pace noticeably before the straight and had his ears pricked, clearly saving plenty. He won´t make great appeal next time unless it´s clear he´ll again get the run of the race.

Oldrik, returning from the best part of a year off, seemed to travel okay but his rider took a while to get serious and he also had to be switched, so this was a creditable effort behind the front-running winner.- PROFIT 

Qahriman, up in trip and faced with testing conditions for the first time, was well enough placed but didn´t convince that he was handing the ground when under pressure. He can be given another chance. 

Just Rob, returning from a 452-day absence, travelled well to a point and retains ability. PROFIT

Rastaban was up intrip after two wins at 1m4f on better ground, the latest off 4lb lower. Evidently these conditions didn´t suit. PROFIT

Slight Advantage has winning from on soft ground but she ran poorly. She found trouble in the straight, but was beaten at the time. John Fahy reported the filly was unsuited by the ground. PROFIT 

Lee Newnes, rider of Lady Of Burgundy, reported his saddle slipped.

Ian Mongan, rider of Nibani, reported the gelding was unsuited by the ground.

QUOTES: Owner Douglas Livingston: "Becausewecan won on heavy ground as a two year old so the going was not a worry and he has done his job well from the front."

    

Most Impressive Daddy Long Legs 240911

There was 3mm of water applied to the final 1m1f after racing on Friday, but it was a bright and breezy day and the ground remained quick.

This prestigious juvenile contest is named after a royal residence in Windsor Great Park and was traditionally staged at nearby Ascot. Following a controversial restructuring of the fixture list the race has been moved to Newmarket, although this isn´t the first time it´s been staged here - the track also played host in 2005 when Ascot was under reconstruction.

It´s a race that has predictably produced plenty of high-class types over the years, and although not long ago it went through a period of being unfashionable, it´s hard to argue with the quality of the last three editions. The 2008 running went to Jukebox Jury (dead-heated in this year´s Irish St Leger) with smart miler Cityscape in second, in 2009 Joshua Tree (Canadian International) had Vale Of York (Breeders´ Cup Juvenile) back in third, and last term Frankel had Treasure Beach (Irish Derby, Secretariat Stakes) behind.

This season´s race, though, looked weak. Again staged on the same weekend as the Beresford Stakes (1m juvenile Group 2 in Ireland), Aidan O´Brien was set to have three runners in both events, and despite this trio coming here with inferior RPRs to a couple of his runners in the Irish contest, the Ballydoyle trainer had the 1-2-3. The action unfolded in much the same way as had been the theme the previous day, with a prominent ride towards the far rail proving advantageous. The time was only 0.17 seconds slower than the Sun Chariot, although that looked modestly run.

This was a fifth win in the race for O´Brien with DADDY LONG LEGS stepping up on the form he showed when only fourth of five in what had looked an ordinary runningof the Champagne Stakes, despite having got a bit warm on his neck. He had Farhaan for company for much of the way, but was still able to dictate a pace to suit and stayed on powerfully, relishing the step up in trip.

Clearly the winner had the run ofthe race and it remains to be seen whether he´s close to the best of his generation at his powerful yard (O´Brien rarely runs his top-notchers in this, though Treasure Beach was third last year), but he impressed physically as having more scope than his two stablemates. His attitude is likeable as well and there should be more to come as he strengthens up. Bookmakers were unimpressed, though, with both Ladbrokes and William Hill leaving him at 33-1 for the Guineas. In the shorter term, considering his US pedigree, it wouldn´t surprise to see him go to the Breeders´ Cup.


 this one has the same profile as Frankel when it won the race last year at Ascot  (and Action of a true daisy cutter) who has a magnificent action floating over the turf, Obviously, , there´s never a guarantee they´ll be able to train on and maintain their brilliance, and he´s got one more run to get out of the way yet, would love to see him run  in either the Dewhurst, which would be the more favourable option given his abundant pace, or the Racing Post Trophy and has to be the top analyser horse for all the classics next year.

Cheveley Park Stakes 24th Sept Newmarket

The Adnams Cheveley Park Stakes is a group 1 for fillies run over 6 furlongs and it takes place at 2.35 Saturday 24th September.  There have been top class winners of this in the past 10 years including Queens Logic, Coronation Stakes winner Indian Ink and 1000 Guineas winners Natagora and Special Duty.

Breeding

10 of 10 winners were born in January, February or March

7 of 10 winners were by a sire with a stamina index of 6.8f to 8.6f

Only 1 of 10 winners was by a sire with a stamina index greater than 10.0f, so fillies with a speedier pedigree are definitely favoured.

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners made their racecourse debut in May, June or July

9 of 10 winners had won at least twice before (exception had won a group 2 & was 2nd in a group 1 on previous start)

8 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions 2nd to a colt in Prix Morny)

8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out

10 of 10 winners had won over 6F

8 of 10 winners had contested a group race (2 exceptions ran in a listed race last time)

8 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race (1 exception had won a sales race worth 136K)

Other races

Lowther Stakes winner (Best Terms): 12163731 (3-3-8)

Queen Mary Stakes winner (Best Terms): 133603 (1-2-6)

Sirenia Stakes winner (Shumoos): 21 (1-1-2)

Cherry Hinton winner (Gamilati): 712 (1-1-3) Take note of Shamooz in that race

Scope Charity Conditions Stakes winner (Best Terms): 130 (1-1-3)

Dick Poole Stakes winner (Sajwah): 5025015 (1-1-7)

John Guest Maiden Fillies' Stakes winner (Hello Glory): 1 (1-0-1)

Marygate Fillies Stakes winner (Miss Work Of Art): 1 (1-0-1)

Princess Margaret Stakes winner (Angels Will Fall): 2988 (0-1-4)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Lowther Stakes, finishing 1121

2 of 2 winners trained in France ran in the Prix Morny, finishing 22

2 of 2 winners trained in France ran in the Robert Papin, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in the Princess Margaret Stakes, finishing 64

2 of 10 winners ran in the Cherry Hinton, finishing 13

Trainers

British-trained runners: 8-16-78

French-trained runners: 2-0-6

Irish-trained runners: 0-2-18

Brian Meehan (2-2-6) has gained 2 wins (40/1 & 12/1) and 2 places from his 6 runners in this since 2001.

Mick Channon (1-3-5) trained the winner in 1999 and 2001 and has seen 4 of his 5 runners in past 10 years make the frame.

Richard Hannon (1-0-5) is the only other trainer with an entrant to have saddled the winner in the past decade.

Clive Brittain (0-2-3) has seen 2 of his 3 representatives make the places while David Wachman (0-1-3) has trained the third twice since 2001.

Price

8 of 10 winners came from first 3 in the betting

8 of the last 10 winners have been priced 11/2 or lower with both exceptions being trained by Brian Meehan.

Favourites (5-4-11) have won 5 of the last 10 and show a level stakes profit of 6.03.

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Born before 31/03/2009

·         Sired by a horse with a stamina index of 6.8 to 8.6

·         Won last time out

·         Won at least twice in 2011

·         Won over 6F

·         Won a group or listed race

·         Finished in first 3 in the Lowther and/or Cherry Hinton

·         Trained by Brian Meehan or Mick Channon

·         First three in the betting

Its hard to look beyond the top of the market and am taking my chances with Shamooz Brian Meehan yard currently 8/1 she has taken the same route to this race as last years winner Hooray who won the kempton AW before coming on to win this - third in the cherry Hinton is decent form has always been aimed at this race and has got her ground she was btn a short head by Best Terms over 5flngs at Ascot but it was a hard race and I think that cost her in the Hinton she has the scope to beat the favourite today - I would not put you off a punt each way on Hello Glory who looks to need this 6flngs and fast ground

The Cheveley Park was this year run a week earlier than usual, being staged in September for the first time since 2006. It´s a race that often fully justifies its top-notch status and has produced the 1,000 Guineas winner three times in the last decade, namely Russian Rhythm (runner-up 2002), Natagora (won 2007) and Special Duty (won 2009). Last season Margot Did, who won this year´s Nunthorpe, finished fifth.

It´s hard to know exactly what to make of this year´s race, but fourth-placed Miss Work Of Art, who´s tough and has run close to 100 on RPRs a few times, helps give the form a solid enough look, and the winner is a high-class juvenile.

Soon after the runners left the stalls there briefly looked set to be a split, with Best Terms leading Angels Will Fall more towards the centre of the course than the others, but the field were as one before long, racing far side. Like the previous day´s racing and this card´s opener, a forward ride near the far rail was helpful and that was the route taken by LIGHTENING PEARL, who was closer to the fence than most.

The winner, supplemented at a cost of £15,000 and a first Group 1 winner for Ger Lyons, paid a compliment of sorts to Maybe, having finished third behind Aidan O´Brien´s unbeaten filly in theGroup 2 Debutante Stakes over 7f two starts ago, although this one improved when dropped back to 6f for a wide-margin Group 3 success next time. She´s bred to get 1m (her dam won a Listed race at the trip) and it might be somewhat coincidental that the her improvement has coincided with a drop in distance, but clearly 6f suits her well and she was a decisive scorer after being well placed. Her low, fluent action suggests the quick ground was also favourable.

Lightening Pearl´s connections have every right to point her towards the Guineas and, while she has to prove she can mix it at this level over further, that´s built into her odds for the first fillies´ Classic with 20-1 being generally available. Her ability to handle this track, especially on quick ground, is an obvious plus. There is apparently an outside chance she will run in the Marcel Boussac which Pearl Bloodstock sponsor.

Sunday Times was well beaten in the Lowther, but prior to that she´d impressed when winning her maiden at Goodwood, so her performance here perhaps wasn´t quite the surprise her odds suggest. She was going on strongly at the finish and deserves extra credit considering the track had been favouring pace. It´s possible she´ll now go for the Bosra Sham Stakes, a C&D fillies´ Listed event in which Peter Chapple-Hyam sent out this one´s sister, Question Times, to finish runner-up last season.

Angels Will Fall had struggled since creating a good impression in the Princess Margaret at Ascot (subsequent Prestige Stakes winner Regal Realm runner-up), but this was more like it. Her performance needs upgrading a touch as she was keen without a great deal of cover for a lot of the way, probably not helped by being draw high and racing wide of the majority of the others early on.

Miss Work Of Art has been busy, most recently finishing a well beaten second in what looked an ordinary running of the Group 3 Firth of Clyde on soft going. Faced with contrasting conditions here, she was under pressure a fair way out butraced close to the helpful far rail and kept on admirably.

Best Terms came into this unbeaten in four starts, including the Queen Mary and Lowther (defied 3lb penalty), but she had the run of the race from the front in the latter. Lacking the scope of some of these, she was much too keen from the start and it was soon apparent she wouldn´t be extending her winning sequence. She was kept apart from the main bunch early, but wouldn´t settle and gradually faded out of it after facing pace pressure. We´ve probably seen the best of this likeable type.

Hello Glory impressed when winning an Ascot maiden before finishing third in the Lowther, but she struggled on this further rise in class.

Lady Gorgeous was well beaten in the Lowther and doesn´t look up to this level even allowing for her finding a bit of trouble late on.

Shumoos lacks size, and, though she somewhat belatedly added to her impressive maiden win when taking a Polytrack Group 3 latest, she was well beaten on her return to turf.
Sajwah responded well to a positive ride to win a Salisbury Listed contest (race won in 2008 by Serious Attitude, who followed up here) on her previous start, and she was again ridden forwardly, but she went lame. It was reported that she broke her pelvis and later she sadly had to be put down. [RW]

QUOTES: Ger Lyons, trainer of Lightening Pearl: "It was a no brainer to supplement her after the way she won the Round Tower. She could be finished for the year and then we will come back her for the Guineas."

Sun Chariot Stakes Saturday 24th 3.10

The Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes takes place at 3.10  24th September at Newmarket Run over a mile for fillies and mares aged 3 or older, it was made a group 1 in 2004 and has been won by some very useful horses including Attraction & Dress To Thrill. Sahpresa has won the last 2 renewals and is looking to become the first horse ever to win the race three times.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 7-7-55

4yo: 2-8-25

5yo: 1-2-12

6yo+: 0-1-2

4 of the 7 winners aged 3 finished in first 3 in the Matron.

Sahpresa has accounted for 2 of the 3 wins for older horses.

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had won a race that season

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out

8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in their last 2 starts

9 of 10 winners had run in the last 40 days

10 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F

7 of 7 winners aged 3 had run 4 to 7 times that season

3 of 3 winners aged 4+ had run 2 to 4 times that season

10 of 10 winners had won listed or group race

6 of 7 winners had won a group race (since it became a group 1)

Other races

Previous season's winner (Sahpresa): 91 (1-0-2)

Oak Tree winner (Chachamaidee): 593 (0-1-3)

Falmouth Stakes winner (Timepiece): 2474 (0-1-4)

Dahlia winner (I'm A Dreamer): 3552 (0-1-4)

Height Of Fashion Stakes winner (Beatrice Aurore): 2 (0-1-1)

Princess Elizabeth Stakes winner (Antara): 3 (0-1-1)

Coral Distaff winner (Nahrain): 54 (0-0-2)

Sceptre Stakes (Alanza): 686 (0-0-3)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Matron Stakes, finishing 1123

3 of 10 winners ran in the Oak Tree Stakes, finishing 355

2 of 10 winners ran in the Falmouth, finishing 23

2 of 10 winners ran in the Windsor Forrest, finishing 18

2 of 10 winners ran in the Brownstown Stakes, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in the Coronation Stakes, finishing 17

2 of 10 winners ran in the Irish 1000 Guineas, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in the English 1000 Guineas, finishing 16

Trainers

British-trained runners: 6-16-80

French-trained runners: 2-2-6

Irish-trained runners: 2-0-7

German-trained runners: 0-0-1

Irish and French trained runners have gained 4 wins and 2 places from 13 runners (approximately 14% of total runners).

Rod Collet (2-1-3) has saddled to win the last 2 runnings of this race, his only other runner in past 10 years was 3rd at 33/1.  

Dermot Weld (1-0-2) trained Dress To Thrill to win this and like his entrant this year (Emulous), Dress To Thrill came here on the back of a win in the Matron Stakes.

Saeed Bin Suroor (1-0-1), Aidan O’Brien and Mick Channon (1-0-4) have also saddled the winner in the past 10 years.

Price

No strong trends on the price though recently longer priced runners have been more prevalent with the last 5 winners going off 12/1, 16/1, 8/1, 16/1 & 9/2.

Favourites (2-3-10) have won 2 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 4.12.

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         First 3 last time out while posting highest RPR

·         Run in the last 40 days

·         A 3yo that ran run 4 to 7 times this season

·         Or a 4yo+ that has run 2 to 4 times this season

·         Won a group race

·         Won over 7F or 8F

·         Finished in first 3 in Matron or Falmouth Stakes

·         Finished in first 5 in Oak Tree Stakes

·         Brownstown Stakes winner

·         Trained in Ireland or France

 Am siding with Together for the race at 9/1 is outstanding value Proved herself among the best of her generation of fillies at this trip but came off second best in Fillies´ Mile last autumn and in the 1,000 Guineas, Irish 1,000 Guineas and Matron Stakes this year but the matron is the race that stands out for me beating Misty For me and by 3l at that this is her race 


A decent renewal of this event, which was elevated to Group 1 status in 2004. Three of the field already had a top-level win against their name, while two more had been second in Group 1 company. Three of last year´s first four were here again, but recent Matron Stakes winner Emulous was a notable absentee.

The early pace was fairly slow, although it picked up after halfway and the race turned into something of a sprint. While the winner produced a dominant performance, her three closest market rivalswere below par.

The race was opened to four-year-olds and above back in 1974 and SAHPRESA became the first mare to win this race three times. She´s also the only horse aged older than four to win it. Everything had gone wrong for her on her trip to the July course for the Falmouth Stakes in which she finished second to Timepiece after sitting too far off the slow pace, but she had shown her mettle with a pair of solid runs in France since.

Christophe Lemaire had the winner closer to the frontthis time and she was never in any danger once quickening up smartly to lead.

Sahpresa is a genuine Group 1 performer although, unlike Immortal Verse and Goldikova, who beat her in the Prix Jacques le Marois last time, she hasn´t beaten the colts at the top level. Her owner is Japanese and she is likely to head to to Kyoto next month for the Grade 1 Mile Championship, in which she was fourth last year and third in 2009. She acts on most types of ground these days.

Chachamaidee has taken her form to a new level since being fitted with a hood, impressing at Goodwood prior to a sound third behind Alanza at Doncaster on her latest start. Ostensibly Sir Henry Cecil´s second string, she was tackling Group 1 company for only the second time. She proved well up to it, held up as usual and taking a bit of a tug before running on nicely, although the French mare was always in control. She is equally effective at 7f and is likely to go for the Challenge Stakes over that trip here in a fortnight.

Strawberrydaiquiri was fourth in this in 2009 and runner-up last year, when trained by Sir Michael Stoute. She had run a pleasing race on her debut for Brian Meehan at Sandown and built on that here, setting a steady initial pace and sticking on for third. This likeable mare is still looking for her first Group 1 win after six tries, one of them in the Dubai Duty Free at Meydan earlier this year, which is the only time she has taken on male opposition.

Fourth last year when sent off favourite, Music Show has not been at her best this season. Equipped with a visor for the first time, she settled well but was caught flat-footed when the tempo lifted and could only stick on at the same pace from there, losing fourth on the line. The 2010 Falmouth Stakesis her only win in her last dozen starts.

I´m A Dreamer has been freshened up since her never-dangerous sixth to Timepiece in the Falmouth. Racing in touch, but still towards the back in a slowly run race, she was staying on well in the final furlong. She deserves the chance she can show what she can do over 1m2f.

The progressive Alanza came here on a four-timer, having beaten Chachamaidee in the Group 3 Sceptre Stakes at Doncaster last time. Supplemented for this, she was held up in last place, perhaps not the place to be, and although she picked up her forward move flattened out as she ended up on the slower ground nearest the fence. She was the least experienced member of this field and it may pay to forgive her this.

Together, who along with Alanza raced nearest to the inside rail, where the ground was more worn, had every chance but was unable to quicken up. She has finished second in four Group 1s, most recently to Emulous at Leopardstown, but has yet to win in seven tries in the top grade. Her stamina only just lasts 1m and she holds a couple of forthcoming entries over shorter trips.

Timepiece pinched the Falmouth Stakes when racing close to a near farcically slow pace, and had run near tothat level when placed in a pair of French Group 1s since, albeit unable to confirm the form with Sahpresa in the first of them. She was well enough positioned tracking the leaders, but dropped away disappointingly once the pace lifted. This ground was perhaps a shade quick for her. [RL]

QUOTES: Rod Collet, trainer of Sahpresa: "We learned a lot in the Falmouth - it was a joke race."

Christophe Lemaire, jockey: ´´She relaxed well and when I asked her she accelerated very well and proved she´s a true Group 1 horse."

The Betfred Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) 240911

The Betfred Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) takes place at Newmarket at 3.50 Saturday 24th September and as always will be a wide open affair with 35 runners going to post. It makes up the first part of the Autumn Double with the Cesarewitch to follow 2 weeks later.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 2-12-73

4yo: 4-8-127

5yo: 1-6-50

6yo+: 3-4-73

Horses aged 3 or 4 have a combined record of 6-20-200

Horses aged 5+ have a combined record of 4-10-123

Younger horses have held a slight advantage in recent years with 3 and 4 year olds winning 6 of the last 9 runnings.

Weights

Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 0-1-26

Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 4-10-73

Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 4-13-132

Horses carrying 8-0 to 8-6: 2-5-78

Horses carrying 7-7 to 7-13: 0-1-10

Top Weight: 305000000000 (0-1-12)

Horses carrying a penalty: 1-6-49

In the past 6 years:

Horses carrying 8-9 or more: 5-13-139

Horses carrying 8-8 or less: 1-6-53

The last 6 winners have carried between 8-7 and 9-3

Official Ratings

Horses rated 103 or higher: 0-6-49

Horses rated 92 to 102: 7-16-180

Horses rated 91 or lower: 3-8-94

5 of last 6 winners were officially rated 97 to 102

Recent/Past Form

7 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time out

8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR of past 12 months last time

6 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher (3 of 4 exceptions were placed in class 2 or higher)

8 of 10 winners had won a race worth 9K or more

8 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 handicap last time (2 exceptions ran in a class 3)

8 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F

9 of 10 winners had won a race with 14+ runners

6 of 10 winners had run in fewer than 10 handicaps

10 of 10 winners had won no more than 4 handicaps

Other Races

Previous season's winner (Credit Swap): 000 (0-0-3)

Zetland Gold Cup winner (Nanton): 41 (1-1-2)

Bet365.com Stakes H'cap winner (Arlequin): 02 (0-1-2)

AgriArgo Challenge H’cap winner (Man Of Action): 0350 (0-1-4)

Silver Bowl winner (Sagramor): 07 (0-0-2)

Turf Tv H'cap winner (Albaqaa): 05 (0-0-2)

DFS Handicap winner (Club Oceanic): 00 (0-0-2)

Ripon Rowels H'cap winner (Stevie Thunder): 00 (0-0-2)

Britannia Stakes winner (Sagramor): 00 (0-0-2)

Telegraph apprentice H'cap winner (Albaqaa): 000 (0-0-3)

Ayrshire Handicap winner (Don't Call Me): 070 (0-0-3)

boylesports.com Handicap winner (Club Oceanic): 008 (0-0-3)

Poker At bet365 Stakes winner (Red Gulch): 9700 (0-0-4)

Poker At bet365.com H'cap winner (Wannabe King): 8500 (0-0-4)

Golf At Goodwood Stakes winner (Circumvent): 000900 (0-0-6)

4 of 10 winners ran in Dubai Duty Free H'cap, finishing 9230

2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in Variety Club Stakes, finishing 45

2 of 10 winners ran in the Spring Mile, finishing 00

Trainers

John Gosden (2-0-7) has won 2 of last 4 runnings of the race.

Hughie Morrison (1-1-3) and David Elsworth (1-1-9) have both saddled the winner and a placed finisher in the past decade.

Other trainers who have won the race since 2001 include James Given (1-0-4), Roger Charlton (1-0-7) and Mark Prescott (1-0-8).

Jim Goldie (0-2-4), Jeremy Noseda (0-2-6) and Mark Johnston (0-2-11) have all saddled a couple of placed finishers in the past 10 years.

Draw

Drawn in bottom 10 stalls: 3-6-100

Horses drawn in the middle: 6-12-123

Horses drawn in top 10 stalls: 1-12-100

High drawn horses have fared by far the worst with only 1 winner coming from the highest 10 stalls since 2001.

Racing Style

7 of 10 winners were held up off the pace

All 3 winners that raced prominently did so on good to firm ground.

Price

No strong trends on the prices. There have been a few big upsets with a 33/1 winner in 2001 and a 100/1 winner in 2004 and the last 3 winners have gone off 25/1, 16/1 & 14/1.

Favourites (2-2-14) have won 2 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 2.00.

Summary

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Carrying 8-7 to 9-3

·         Officially rated 97 to 102

·         Finished in the first 4 in a class 2 handicap last time

·         Posted highest RPR of past 12 months on last start

·         Has won at class 2 level or above (at worst placed in a class 2)

·         Won over 1M 2F

·         Won a race with 14+ runners

·         Run in 9 or fewer handicaps (winning no more than 4)

·         Ran in the Dubai Duty Free Handicap

·         Trained by John Gosden or Hughie Morrison

·         Drawn low to middle

·         Hold-up horses favoured (especially on softer) front runners on g/frm

 this is a nightmare of a race for serious punting that's for sure but who can resist such a cavalry charge ? -First 4 home in the Silver Cambridgeshire were drawn 1-10-3-16 (24 ran), might be some advantage to a low draw.

 That makes me really interested in the each way chances of Circumvent  4yr old carrying 9-06  (33/1) out of the 10 stall - ran off a mark of 107 last year out of stall 35 and that cooked him - is a year to the good and its win last time at Goodwood on g/sft  (that does seem to be its best ground for sure) but has won on faster and the mark of 99 gives him plenty of chances had gone a long time without winning and had come down the weights as a result. Cheekpieces were back on after an experiment with blinkers, and possibly that made the difference as he won with a bit in hand. has decent course form on g/frm ground over 1m2f and ran to 100 that day --and its 5 places if you look around

 Result ---Like the Cheveley Park, a reshuffling of the fixture list saw the Cambridgeshire run a week earlier than usual this season. It was typically competitive, but none of the 3yos (fancied Dare To Dance withdrawn owing to quick ground) came to the fore and itwas dominated by exposed types.

There were three groups through the first furlong or so, but the majority of runners soon merged up the middle before gradually edging towards the stands´ side rail. Three of these stayed towards that side throughout, namely Brick Red, Combat Zoneand Desert Romance. They were all outsiders, but the first named kept on to post a creditable effort on ground was faster than ideal.

Considering how the race unfolded clearly a high draw was favourable and second-placed Stevie Thunder, the only runner from a single-figure stall to finish in the first eight, deserves enormous credit. Bidding for a hat-trick after two wins at 1m (latest off 4lb lower), he was given a prominent ride and gradually made his way towards the near side, though unlike the winner he never got to the rail. Despite that, he stuck on gamely. This was better than when he finished sixth off 3lb lower in the 2009 running, and although his trainer was hoping for a bit of rain, the horse handled the quick ground well.

The well-drawn PRINCE OF JOHANNE soon joined the main group towards the middle, but he was well enough placed to grab the fence when the field edged left in the closing stages and there looked to be an advantage. This isn´t form to get carried away with, but he has a good strike-rate (now 7-22) and has a steadily progressive profile on quick ground, with this undoubtedly a career best. Prior to this, when getting good to firm ground to race, he´d won three of his last four starts, with the sole defeat coming when runner-up to Nanton in the Zetland Gold Cup, and he reversed form with the grey despite being only 1lb better off.

Proponent, only ninth in this on soft ground last year but 3-6 at the course, had been absent since finishing second in the totesport Mile off 3lb lower at Goodwood in July. This was a smart performance in defeat.

Nanton, runner-up in this in 2008 and third in 2009, ran another fine race to fare best of those held up, helped by havingthe stands´ rail to race against from some way out. He could go to Dubai.

Markazzi was always handy and had his chance, but he didn´t quite see it out as well as some. It will be interesting to see if connections persevere with this lightly raced gelding (only his 11th start) and he could be one for next year´s Lincoln.

Circumvent, 1lb well in under the penalty picked up for his recent Goodwood win on easy ground, wasn´t helped by stall 10 but kept on quite well. This was a lot better than when he was only 16th in this last year off 8lb higher.
Shavansky, 7lb higher than when fifth in the 2009 running, was always in a reasonable position from a handy draw and ran well without being up to the task.

The maiden Maali had been going the wrong way, but his trainer has struck form lately and this was a promising effort, with the combination of blinkers and a tongue-tie for the first time seeming to help. He can find easier opportunities and could build on this.

The German-trainedIdeology, whose most recent win came in a Deauville handicap, ran a good race from an unhelpful stall. Held up, he had to wait a while for a run and it was only late on that his jockey went for everything, but the horse´s finishing effort looked to be levelling out near the line.

Nice Style kept on from some way back after a 56-day break, while Questioning hasn´t convinced that he´s straightforward and, with a visor on instead of cheekpieces, was ridden for luck, being held up well off thepace. His position in relation to the leaders wasn´t a problem (Nanton showed closers could get involved), but he continually found trouble in running and was unlucky not to finish a good deal closer. Things will probably betougher from now on seeing as he was 10lb well in and is unlikely to be eased much, if at all, but he looks the type to win a race or two in Dubai.

Arguably even more unlucky was Man Of Action, who was 2lb well in under the penalty picked up for his 1m Doncaster win. He got no run at all, hardly coming off the bridle at any stage, and otherwise would surely have gone close to winning.

Philip Robinson reported Arlequin suffered interference from halfway, while Roayh would have been closer with a better trip but didn´t look unlucky.

The lightly raced Cry Fury was totally unsuited by this speed test and is easily excused. He´s out of a 2m winner and is more of a middle-distance/staying type.

Credit Swap, 7lb higher than when winning this for a different stable last year, had the worst draw of all and the ground was probably quicker than ideal.

Riggins was another who endured a terrible run in the closing stages and is a lot better than he showed.

Charles Hills, the trainer of Maqaraat, reported his colt was unsuited by the ground. [RW]

QUOTES: Tom Tate, trainer of Prince Of Johanne: "Both the race and the fast ground suited him. He has been running well all season, so the form was there, but I thought the handicapper had him."

John Gosden, trainer of Questioning: "He couldn´t get a run and passed about ten horses in the last furlong. He was 10lb well in as well."

Simon Crisford, racing manager to Godolphin: "Man Of Action couldn´t get a run and Frankie said he finished on the bridle. I don´t know if he will run again because he needs fast ground."