The Betfred Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) takes place at Newmarket at 3.50 Saturday 24th September and as always will be a wide open affair with 35 runners going to post. It makes up the first part of the Autumn Double with the Cesarewitch to follow 2 weeks later.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 2-12-73
4yo: 4-8-127
5yo: 1-6-50
6yo+: 3-4-73
Horses aged 3 or 4 have a combined record of 6-20-200
Horses aged 5+ have a combined record of 4-10-123
Younger horses have held a slight advantage in recent years with 3 and 4 year olds winning 6 of the last 9 runnings.
Weights
Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 0-1-26
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 4-10-73
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 4-13-132
Horses carrying 8-0 to 8-6: 2-5-78
Horses carrying 7-7 to 7-13: 0-1-10
Top Weight: 305000000000 (0-1-12)
Horses carrying a penalty: 1-6-49
In the past 6 years:
Horses carrying 8-9 or more: 5-13-139
Horses carrying 8-8 or less: 1-6-53
The last 6 winners have carried between 8-7 and 9-3
Official Ratings
Horses rated 103 or higher: 0-6-49
Horses rated 92 to 102: 7-16-180
Horses rated 91 or lower: 3-8-94
5 of last 6 winners were officially rated 97 to 102
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time out
8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR of past 12 months last time
6 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or higher (3 of 4 exceptions were placed in class 2 or higher)
8 of 10 winners had won a race worth 9K or more
8 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 handicap last time (2 exceptions ran in a class 3)
8 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F
9 of 10 winners had won a race with 14+ runners
6 of 10 winners had run in fewer than 10 handicaps
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 4 handicaps
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Credit Swap): 000 (0-0-3)
Zetland Gold Cup winner (Nanton): 41 (1-1-2)
Bet365.com Stakes H'cap winner (Arlequin): 02 (0-1-2)
AgriArgo Challenge H’cap winner (Man Of Action): 0350 (0-1-4)
Silver Bowl winner (Sagramor): 07 (0-0-2)
Turf Tv H'cap winner (Albaqaa): 05 (0-0-2)
DFS Handicap winner (Club Oceanic): 00 (0-0-2)
Ripon Rowels H'cap winner (Stevie Thunder): 00 (0-0-2)
Britannia Stakes winner (Sagramor): 00 (0-0-2)
Telegraph apprentice H'cap winner (Albaqaa): 000 (0-0-3)
Ayrshire Handicap winner (Don't Call Me): 070 (0-0-3)
boylesports.com Handicap winner (Club Oceanic): 008 (0-0-3)
Poker At bet365 Stakes winner (Red Gulch): 9700 (0-0-4)
Poker At bet365.com H'cap winner (Wannabe King): 8500 (0-0-4)
Golf At Goodwood Stakes winner (Circumvent): 000900 (0-0-6)
4 of 10 winners ran in Dubai Duty Free H'cap, finishing 9230
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in Variety Club Stakes, finishing 45
2 of 10 winners ran in the Spring Mile, finishing 00
Trainers
John Gosden (2-0-7) has won 2 of last 4 runnings of the race.
Hughie Morrison (1-1-3) and David Elsworth (1-1-9) have both saddled the winner and a placed finisher in the past decade.
Other trainers who have won the race since 2001 include James Given (1-0-4), Roger Charlton (1-0-7) and Mark Prescott (1-0-8).
Jim Goldie (0-2-4), Jeremy Noseda (0-2-6) and Mark Johnston (0-2-11) have all saddled a couple of placed finishers in the past 10 years.
Draw
Drawn in bottom 10 stalls: 3-6-100
Horses drawn in the middle: 6-12-123
Horses drawn in top 10 stalls: 1-12-100
High drawn horses have fared by far the worst with only 1 winner coming from the highest 10 stalls since 2001.
Racing Style
7 of 10 winners were held up off the pace
All 3 winners that raced prominently did so on good to firm ground.
Price
No strong trends on the prices. There have been a few big upsets with a 33/1 winner in 2001 and a 100/1 winner in 2004 and the last 3 winners have gone off 25/1, 16/1 & 14/1.
Favourites (2-2-14) have won 2 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 2.00.
Summary
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Carrying 8-7 to 9-3
· Officially rated 97 to 102
· Finished in the first 4 in a class 2 handicap last time
· Posted highest RPR of past 12 months on last start
· Has won at class 2 level or above (at worst placed in a class 2)
· Won over 1M 2F
· Won a race with 14+ runners
· Run in 9 or fewer handicaps (winning no more than 4)
· Ran in the Dubai Duty Free Handicap
· Trained by John Gosden or Hughie Morrison
· Drawn low to middle
· Hold-up horses favoured (especially on softer) front runners on g/frm
this is a nightmare of a race for serious punting that's for sure but who can resist such a cavalry charge ? -First 4 home in the Silver Cambridgeshire were drawn 1-10-3-16 (24 ran), might be some advantage to a low draw.
That makes me really interested in the each way chances of Circumvent 4yr old carrying 9-06 (33/1) out of the 10 stall - ran off a mark of 107 last year out of stall 35 and that cooked him - is a year to the good and its win last time at Goodwood on g/sft (that does seem to be its best ground for sure) but has won on faster and the mark of 99 gives him plenty of chances had gone a long time without winning and had come down the weights as a result. Cheekpieces were back on after an experiment with blinkers, and possibly that made the difference as he won with a bit in hand. has decent course form on g/frm ground over 1m2f and ran to 100 that day --and its 5 places if you look around
Result ---Like the Cheveley Park, a reshuffling of the fixture list saw the Cambridgeshire run a week earlier than usual this season. It was typically competitive, but none of the 3yos (fancied Dare To Dance withdrawn owing to quick ground) came to the fore and itwas dominated by exposed types.
There were three groups through the first furlong or so, but the majority of runners soon merged up the middle before gradually edging towards the stands´ side rail. Three of these stayed towards that side throughout, namely Brick Red, Combat Zoneand Desert Romance. They were all outsiders, but the first named kept on to post a creditable effort on ground was faster than ideal.
Considering how the race unfolded clearly a high draw was favourable and second-placed Stevie Thunder, the only runner from a single-figure stall to finish in the first eight, deserves enormous credit. Bidding for a hat-trick after two wins at 1m (latest off 4lb lower), he was given a prominent ride and gradually made his way towards the near side, though unlike the winner he never got to the rail. Despite that, he stuck on gamely. This was better than when he finished sixth off 3lb lower in the 2009 running, and although his trainer was hoping for a bit of rain, the horse handled the quick ground well.
The well-drawn PRINCE OF JOHANNE soon joined the main group towards the middle, but he was well enough placed to grab the fence when the field edged left in the closing stages and there looked to be an advantage. This isn´t form to get carried away with, but he has a good strike-rate (now 7-22) and has a steadily progressive profile on quick ground, with this undoubtedly a career best. Prior to this, when getting good to firm ground to race, he´d won three of his last four starts, with the sole defeat coming when runner-up to Nanton in the Zetland Gold Cup, and he reversed form with the grey despite being only 1lb better off.
Proponent, only ninth in this on soft ground last year but 3-6 at the course, had been absent since finishing second in the totesport Mile off 3lb lower at Goodwood in July. This was a smart performance in defeat.
Nanton, runner-up in this in 2008 and third in 2009, ran another fine race to fare best of those held up, helped by havingthe stands´ rail to race against from some way out. He could go to Dubai.
Markazzi was always handy and had his chance, but he didn´t quite see it out as well as some. It will be interesting to see if connections persevere with this lightly raced gelding (only his 11th start) and he could be one for next year´s Lincoln.
Circumvent, 1lb well in under the penalty picked up for his recent Goodwood win on easy ground, wasn´t helped by stall 10 but kept on quite well. This was a lot better than when he was only 16th in this last year off 8lb higher.
Shavansky, 7lb higher than when fifth in the 2009 running, was always in a reasonable position from a handy draw and ran well without being up to the task.
The maiden Maali had been going the wrong way, but his trainer has struck form lately and this was a promising effort, with the combination of blinkers and a tongue-tie for the first time seeming to help. He can find easier opportunities and could build on this.
The German-trainedIdeology, whose most recent win came in a Deauville handicap, ran a good race from an unhelpful stall. Held up, he had to wait a while for a run and it was only late on that his jockey went for everything, but the horse´s finishing effort looked to be levelling out near the line.
Nice Style kept on from some way back after a 56-day break, while Questioning hasn´t convinced that he´s straightforward and, with a visor on instead of cheekpieces, was ridden for luck, being held up well off thepace. His position in relation to the leaders wasn´t a problem (Nanton showed closers could get involved), but he continually found trouble in running and was unlucky not to finish a good deal closer. Things will probably betougher from now on seeing as he was 10lb well in and is unlikely to be eased much, if at all, but he looks the type to win a race or two in Dubai.
Arguably even more unlucky was Man Of Action, who was 2lb well in under the penalty picked up for his 1m Doncaster win. He got no run at all, hardly coming off the bridle at any stage, and otherwise would surely have gone close to winning.
Philip Robinson reported Arlequin suffered interference from halfway, while Roayh would have been closer with a better trip but didn´t look unlucky.
The lightly raced Cry Fury was totally unsuited by this speed test and is easily excused. He´s out of a 2m winner and is more of a middle-distance/staying type.
Credit Swap, 7lb higher than when winning this for a different stable last year, had the worst draw of all and the ground was probably quicker than ideal.
Riggins was another who endured a terrible run in the closing stages and is a lot better than he showed.
Charles Hills, the trainer of Maqaraat, reported his colt was unsuited by the ground. [RW]
QUOTES: Tom Tate, trainer of Prince Of Johanne: "Both the race and the fast ground suited him. He has been running well all season, so the form was there, but I thought the handicapper had him."
John Gosden, trainer of Questioning: "He couldn´t get a run and passed about ten horses in the last furlong. He was 10lb well in as well."
Simon Crisford, racing manager to Godolphin: "Man Of Action couldn´t get a run and Frankie said he finished on the bridle. I don´t know if he will run again because he needs fast ground."
There were three groups through the first furlong or so, but the majority of runners soon merged up the middle before gradually edging towards the stands´ side rail. Three of these stayed towards that side throughout, namely Brick Red, Combat Zoneand Desert Romance. They were all outsiders, but the first named kept on to post a creditable effort on ground was faster than ideal.
Considering how the race unfolded clearly a high draw was favourable and second-placed Stevie Thunder, the only runner from a single-figure stall to finish in the first eight, deserves enormous credit. Bidding for a hat-trick after two wins at 1m (latest off 4lb lower), he was given a prominent ride and gradually made his way towards the near side, though unlike the winner he never got to the rail. Despite that, he stuck on gamely. This was better than when he finished sixth off 3lb lower in the 2009 running, and although his trainer was hoping for a bit of rain, the horse handled the quick ground well.
The well-drawn PRINCE OF JOHANNE soon joined the main group towards the middle, but he was well enough placed to grab the fence when the field edged left in the closing stages and there looked to be an advantage. This isn´t form to get carried away with, but he has a good strike-rate (now 7-22) and has a steadily progressive profile on quick ground, with this undoubtedly a career best. Prior to this, when getting good to firm ground to race, he´d won three of his last four starts, with the sole defeat coming when runner-up to Nanton in the Zetland Gold Cup, and he reversed form with the grey despite being only 1lb better off.
Proponent, only ninth in this on soft ground last year but 3-6 at the course, had been absent since finishing second in the totesport Mile off 3lb lower at Goodwood in July. This was a smart performance in defeat.
Nanton, runner-up in this in 2008 and third in 2009, ran another fine race to fare best of those held up, helped by havingthe stands´ rail to race against from some way out. He could go to Dubai.
Markazzi was always handy and had his chance, but he didn´t quite see it out as well as some. It will be interesting to see if connections persevere with this lightly raced gelding (only his 11th start) and he could be one for next year´s Lincoln.
Circumvent, 1lb well in under the penalty picked up for his recent Goodwood win on easy ground, wasn´t helped by stall 10 but kept on quite well. This was a lot better than when he was only 16th in this last year off 8lb higher.
Shavansky, 7lb higher than when fifth in the 2009 running, was always in a reasonable position from a handy draw and ran well without being up to the task.
The maiden Maali had been going the wrong way, but his trainer has struck form lately and this was a promising effort, with the combination of blinkers and a tongue-tie for the first time seeming to help. He can find easier opportunities and could build on this.
The German-trainedIdeology, whose most recent win came in a Deauville handicap, ran a good race from an unhelpful stall. Held up, he had to wait a while for a run and it was only late on that his jockey went for everything, but the horse´s finishing effort looked to be levelling out near the line.
Nice Style kept on from some way back after a 56-day break, while Questioning hasn´t convinced that he´s straightforward and, with a visor on instead of cheekpieces, was ridden for luck, being held up well off thepace. His position in relation to the leaders wasn´t a problem (Nanton showed closers could get involved), but he continually found trouble in running and was unlucky not to finish a good deal closer. Things will probably betougher from now on seeing as he was 10lb well in and is unlikely to be eased much, if at all, but he looks the type to win a race or two in Dubai.
Arguably even more unlucky was Man Of Action, who was 2lb well in under the penalty picked up for his 1m Doncaster win. He got no run at all, hardly coming off the bridle at any stage, and otherwise would surely have gone close to winning.
Philip Robinson reported Arlequin suffered interference from halfway, while Roayh would have been closer with a better trip but didn´t look unlucky.
The lightly raced Cry Fury was totally unsuited by this speed test and is easily excused. He´s out of a 2m winner and is more of a middle-distance/staying type.
Credit Swap, 7lb higher than when winning this for a different stable last year, had the worst draw of all and the ground was probably quicker than ideal.
Riggins was another who endured a terrible run in the closing stages and is a lot better than he showed.
Charles Hills, the trainer of Maqaraat, reported his colt was unsuited by the ground. [RW]
QUOTES: Tom Tate, trainer of Prince Of Johanne: "Both the race and the fast ground suited him. He has been running well all season, so the form was there, but I thought the handicapper had him."
John Gosden, trainer of Questioning: "He couldn´t get a run and passed about ten horses in the last furlong. He was 10lb well in as well."
Simon Crisford, racing manager to Godolphin: "Man Of Action couldn´t get a run and Frankie said he finished on the bridle. I don´t know if he will run again because he needs fast ground."
1 comment:
Well done with the Cambridgeshire winner @ 40/1
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