The Ladbrokes Portland handicap 2.35 100911

The Ladbrokes Portland is the big handicap on the Saturday card of the Leger meeting at Doncaster. Run over 5F 140 yards it is always an enthralling cavalry charge that has thrown up some memorable finishes in the past decade.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 0-4-34

4yo: 2-11-53

5yo: 4-5-43

6yo: 0-6-35

7yo+: 4-6-49

Older horses hold a marginal advantage with those aged 7+ winning 4 of the last 9.

Since 2001 there have been 34 runners aged 3, all have been beaten with only 4 making the frame.

Weights

Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-5-43

Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 5-14-94

Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 4-11-82

Horses carrying 8-0 to 8-6: 0-0-5

9 of 10 winners (last 6) carried between 8-12 and 9-6.

Top Weight: 530969206407 (0-3-12)

Official Ratings

Horses rated 101 or more: 0-5-33

Horses rated 91 to 100: 10-18-139

Horses rated 90 or less: 0-7-42

10 of 10 winners were officially rated between 91 and 100

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had run at least 4 times that year

6 of 10 winners won or placed last time out (all 4 exceptions were unplaced in Great St Wilfrid)

10 of 10 winners ran in a class 3 or better last time out

10 of 10 winners had run in past 35 days

10 of 10 winners had won a race with 14+ runners in it

9 of 10 winners had won over 5F (exception hadn't run over 5F)

9 of 10 winners had won over 6F

8 of 9 winners trained in Britain had won at class 2 level or above(exception had won a class 3 & finished 2nd in a class 2) (Irish trained winner had won a 60-100 handicap)

9 of 10 winners had won a race worth 13K+

5 of 10 winners had contested a group race

8 of 10 winners had last start at Ripon, Goodwood or Sandown

Other Races

Gosford Park Cup winner (Ancient Cross): 1000 (1-0-4)

Stellar Group handicap winner (Doctor Parkes): 0307 (0-1-4)

Shegar Cup Dash winner (Dungannon): 70 (0-0-2)

tyregiant.com Stakes winner (York Glory): 00 (0-0-2)

Scottish Sprint Cup winner (Burning Thread): 00 (0-0-2)

Betfred Be Friendly Handicap winner (Zero Money): 689 (0-0-3)

6 of 10 winners ran in the Great St Wilfrid, finishing 869008

5 of 10 winners ran in the Stewards Cup, finishing 02065 (1 ran in Stewards Sprint, finishing 1st)

4 of 10 winners ran in Al Rayan H'cap at Newmarket, finishing 8006

3 of 10 winners ran in Bank Holiday Stakes (Handicap), finishing 131

3 of 10 winners ran in the Scottish Stewards Cup, finishing 484

3 of 10 winners ran in the Epsom Dash, finishing 964

2 of 10 winners ran in the Northern Sprint Cup, finishing 08

2 of 10 winners ran in the Rockingham handicap, finishing 55

2 of 10 winners ran in the Skybet Dash, finishing 80

2 of 10 winners ran in the Gosford Sprint Cup, finishing 51

Trainers

Kevin Ryan (3-4-20) won the race with Halmahera in 02, 03 & 04 and he also saddled the 2nd and 4th in each of the last 2 renewals.

Clive Cox (1-1-5), David Marnane (1-0-1), Tim Etherington (1-0-3) and David Barron (1-0-3) have all trained the winner once in the past 10 years.

Willie Muir (0-2-2) saddled Texas Gold to be placed in the race twice while Michael Jarvis (0-2-2) has had 2 different runners in this since 2000, both placed.

Dandy Nicholls (0-2-27) has a poor record in the race having found just 2 places from 27 representatives.

Racing Style

8 of 10 winners (last 7) were held up in midfield or rear

The race is usually run at a fierce gallop and horses that are played late often do best.

Draw (excluding 2006 when run at York)

Horses drawn 1 to 7: 2-7-63

Horses drawn 8 to 14: 2-11-63

Horses drawn 15 or higher: 5-9-69

Horses drawn 15 or higher have won 5 of last 9 runnings at Doncaster.

Price

8 of 10 winners were priced between 11/1 and 20/1

Favourites (2-1-11) have a fair record in this race having won 2 of the last 10 (including last year) and giving a level stakes profit of 2.00.

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 4 or older

·         Carrying 8-12 to 9-6

·         Officially rated 91 to 100

·         Run at least 4 times in 2011

·         Won or placed last time (or unplaced in Great St Wilfrid)

·         Ran in last 35 days in a class 3 or better

·         Won at class 2 level or higher

·         Won over 5F and 6F

·         Won a handicap with 14+ runners

·         Ran in the Great St Wilfrid and/or Stewards Cup/Sprint

·         Drawn in 15 or higher is favourable

·         Hold-up horses favoured

·         Trained by Kevin Ryan

·         Priced between 11/1 and 20/1


Nightmare race to be sure but fun for all that am siding with the 4 yr old Nocturnal Affair as the each way fancy in this -- well drawn and has won over a distance further can front run or be held up has a decent draw ran a blinder last time at Cork behind Roicede who came out again giving Amore Propre a race for the 32k group 1 flying five stakes is priced very attractively at 14/1 


 RESULTTTTTTTTTTTTTT A typically open running of this historic sprint handicap. There was plenty of pace in the race and the time was just under a second inside the standard. The main bulk of the field raced towards the stands´ side, with a pair in isolation near to the far rail. There was a bunch finish and those drawn high emerged on top, with five of the first six home coming from stalls 15 or higher.

Irish-based trainer David Marnane won this two years ago with Santo Padre and doubled up thanks to NOCTURNAL AFFAIR. The gelding, a Group 3 winner for Greg Ennion in his native South Africa, had run well on his debut for the Marnane yard at Cork and was relatively unexposed at sprint distances. He broke awkwardly from the stalls, but soon raced strongly tracking the pace and found sufficient after easing to the front entering the last furlong.
The winner should prove competitive in Listed and Group 3 races and his South African record suggests he will not mind some ease in the ground.