The Guinness Kerry National Handicap Chase takes place tomorrow Wednesday 14th September and is the highlight of the 7-day Listowel Festival. It is a 3 mile Grade A handicap chase that has been won by some useful chasers in the past, including subsequent Grand National winner, Monty’s Pass, in 2002.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-0-1
6yo: 2-1-14
7yo: 3-6-32
8yo: 2-8-49
9yo: 3-10-47
10yo+: 0-4-28
Not a whole lot to choose between the horses aged 6 to 9 who have landed the last 10 runnings.
No horse aged 10 or over has won the race in the last 10 years from 28 runners (16.4% of total runners).
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 6-9-56
Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 4-20-115
Horses carrying 10-10+ have won 4 of the last 6, including the first 3 home in past 2 renewals, and in the 2 other runnings since 2004 there was just one runner carrying 10-10+, both top weights carrying 11-10.
Top Weight: 6F731F0565 (1-1-10)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 126 or more: 8-17-85
Horses rated 125 or less: 2-12-86
Horses officially rated 126 or higher have won 8 of the last 10 from approximately 50% of the total runners.
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners won or placed on last start (2 of 3 exceptions unplaced over hurdles)
7 of 10 winners (last 7) had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
9 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers
8 of 10 winners had gained 2 to 4 previous wins over fences
10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 3F or further
7 of 10 winners had won a chase worth 12K+
9 of 10 winners had contested a graded chase
7 of 10 winners had won or placed at a previous Listowel Festival (2 of 3 exceptions had never run at Listowel before)
5 of 10 winners had their previous start over hurdles
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Alfa Beat): 76165 (1-0-5) 7 yr old carrying 11-03 ridden by Geraghty Ran respectable race over hurdles last time at Galway,
Galway Plate winner (Blazing tempo): B3 (0-1-2)
Perfect Pint Beginners Chase winner (Daffern Seal): 26 (0-1-2)
www.themalton.com Chase winner (Psycho): 9F (0-0-2)
McSweeney Arms Hcap Chase winner (Bideford Legend): 0F90F (0-0-5)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Galway Plate, finishing 8665
2 of 10 winners ran in Leopardstown's Paddy Power Chase, finishing 70
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Munster National, finishing 34
5 of 10 winners ran in a chase at Cheltenham Festival, finishing 54404
Trainers
Willie Mullins (2-1-11) has won the race twice in the last 6 years as has Eric McNamara (2-1-7) who trained Ponmeoath to win it in 2007 and 2008.
Michael Hourigan (1-5-9) has seen 6 of his 9 runners make the frame while Tony Martin (1-1-5) saddled the 1st and 3rd in 2009 and the 5th in 2010.
Charles Byrnes (1-0-2) is the only other trainer with an entrant this year to have won it since 2001.
British–trained runners (0-1-13) have gained 0 wins and just 1 place from 13 runners in past 10 runnings.
Jockeys
Ruby Walsh (4-0-8) has a super record in this race in the past 10 years, winning 4 of the last 7 renewals.
Barry Geraghty (2-2-7) has gained 2 wins and 2 places from his 7 rides in this since 2001 while Paddy Flood (2-0-4) won the race twice on Ponmeoath in 07 & 08.
Price
8 of 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 10/1
7 of the 10 winners came from the first 5 in the betting and no winner has gone off bigger than 14/1.
Favourites (1-5-11) gained their first win in the race for over 10 years in 2009. Level stakes loss of 5.00.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 6 to 9
· Carrying 10-10 or more
· Officially rated 126 or higher
· Won or placed last time out (in last 50 days)
· Ran over hurdles last time out
· Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
· Second or third season chaser
· Won over 2M 3F+
· Won a chase worth 12K+
· Won or placed at a previous Listowel Festival
· Ran in a chase at the 2011 Cheltenham Festival
· First 6 in Galway Plate and/or Munster National
· Trained by W Mullins, M Hourigan, E McNamara or A J Martin
· Ridden by Ruby Walsh or Barry Geraghty
· Priced between 4/1 to 10/1 (first 5 in the betting)
I blogged the winner of this race last year and Martin has won it many times - the stats are solid for the race and the ground will be soft so of the 18 current runners there are too many to have a strong fancy for over night so will return to this topic in the morning
Result --1 Alfa Beat 20/1 last years winner and Barry Geraghty
2 Bideford Legend 4/1 Fav
3 Lenabane 9/1
4 Blazing Tempo 6/1
A fine performance by ALFA BEAT who emulated Packed Home(1964 and 1965), Pearl Of Montreal (1971 and 1973) and Ponmeoath (2007 and 2008) by winning this for the second time.
Last year´s success, the culmination of a splendid sequence of wins for Charles Byrnes, was achieved off a mark of 137, and it is greatly to the credit of his new trainer, for whom his first two races had been over hurdles at Roscommon and Galway in July, that he has improved further to score off 148 this time. It is almost precisely 15 months since he embarked on his winning roll for Byrnes, off a mark of 92 at Roscommon. That amounts to an incredible 56lb improvement, exactly four stone.
Given a positive ride by Barry Geraghty, he was sent him to the front when the front-running Fosters Cross blundered his chance away at the fifth-last. He saw out the trip really well, just as he had done for the same rider last year. His long-term objective is the Grand National.
There was a touch of irony in that runner-up Bideford Legend is trained by Byrnes to whom he was transferred from the Paul Flynn yard at the end of last year. Running off a mark 17lb higher than when successful at Killarney in May,with two runs over hurdles in between, he responded well to pressure without ever looking like getting to the winner.
Sharpened by a run in a Galway conditions event late last month, Lenabane ran a promising race. He was quite lightly campaigned last season, but on this evidence should be able to add to the single novice win that he recorded two seasons ago.The combination of soft ground and a 12lb rise in the ratings made things difficult for Galway Plate heroine Blazing Tempo, and she was certainly not disgraced, taking fourth place, only a neck behind the third, and best of a Willie Mullins-trained trio.-
Result --1 Alfa Beat 20/1 last years winner and Barry Geraghty
2 Bideford Legend 4/1 Fav
3 Lenabane 9/1
4 Blazing Tempo 6/1
A fine performance by ALFA BEAT who emulated Packed Home(1964 and 1965), Pearl Of Montreal (1971 and 1973) and Ponmeoath (2007 and 2008) by winning this for the second time.
Last year´s success, the culmination of a splendid sequence of wins for Charles Byrnes, was achieved off a mark of 137, and it is greatly to the credit of his new trainer, for whom his first two races had been over hurdles at Roscommon and Galway in July, that he has improved further to score off 148 this time. It is almost precisely 15 months since he embarked on his winning roll for Byrnes, off a mark of 92 at Roscommon. That amounts to an incredible 56lb improvement, exactly four stone.
Given a positive ride by Barry Geraghty, he was sent him to the front when the front-running Fosters Cross blundered his chance away at the fifth-last. He saw out the trip really well, just as he had done for the same rider last year. His long-term objective is the Grand National.
There was a touch of irony in that runner-up Bideford Legend is trained by Byrnes to whom he was transferred from the Paul Flynn yard at the end of last year. Running off a mark 17lb higher than when successful at Killarney in May,with two runs over hurdles in between, he responded well to pressure without ever looking like getting to the winner.
Sharpened by a run in a Galway conditions event late last month, Lenabane ran a promising race. He was quite lightly campaigned last season, but on this evidence should be able to add to the single novice win that he recorded two seasons ago.The combination of soft ground and a 12lb rise in the ratings made things difficult for Galway Plate heroine Blazing Tempo, and she was certainly not disgraced, taking fourth place, only a neck behind the third, and best of a Willie Mullins-trained trio.-
3 comments:
Just a quick thought should have posted above - take a good long hard look at lenaban in this - is a genuine 3mile chaser who ran Ballyholland very close last time out with ScotsIrish third..soon tracked leaders, moderate 3rd approaching 2 out, soon closed, chased winner from before straight, soon closed and challenged, every chance and kept on well without matching winner closing stages now that was a decent race against the galway plate winner who seems to need no better that good/soft ground and had it that day but Lenaban holds a lot of the stats is relatively fresh horse 3rd season chaser who loves cut and at 9 is in off a lovely weight in this race
Dont Have much time today and away for a few days so will try and get the ten year stats up for the weekend Ayr Gold Cup
am staying with Lenabane each way for the Kerry National as posted yesterday think that form stands up well in the ground forecast yielding with a small bet on Muirhead in running
Third will have to do ran a very decent race into the money and a brilliant win from Alpha beat
1 Alfa Beat 20/1
2 Bideford Legend 4/1 Fav
3 Lenabane 9/1
4 Blazing Tempo 6/1
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