Genders
Fillies (0-3-7) have gained 3 places from 7 runners (2 of 3 placed finishers had won a group 1 & other was an unbeaten group winner)
Breeding
8 of 10 winners were by a sire with stamina index of 10.9F to 11.6F
8 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that finished in first 2 in the Epsom or French Derby’s
5 of 10 winners were by Sadler’s Wells or by a son of Sadler’s Wells or out of a Sadler’s Wells mare
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) were out of a mare by Diesis
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had run 4 or 5 times that season
6 of 10 winners won last time out
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out
10 of 10 winners ran in the past 60 days
10 of 10 winners posted a career high RPR on last 2 runs (8 last time)
10 of 10 winners won their maiden over 7F+
8 of 10 winners had won over 1M 3F to 1M 4F (both exceptions placed in the Voltigeur)
8 of 10 winner had won a group race (2 exceptions were 2nd in a group 2)
Great Voltigeur winner (Sea Moon): 1315136 (3-2-7)
Gordon Stakes winner (Namibian): 334211 (2-3-6)
Bahrain Trophy winner (Masked Marvel): 23 (0-2-2)
Yorkshire Oaks winner (Blue Bunting): 2 (0-1-1)
Geoffrey Freer Stakes winner (Census): 3 (0-1-1)
Lingfield Derby Trial winner (Dordogne): 340 (0-1-3)
Queen's Vase winner (Namibian): 742 (0-1-3)
Irish Oaks winner (Blue Bunting): 4 (0-0-1)
King George V Stakes winner (Brown Panther): 08 (0-0-2)
Cocked Hat Stakes winner (Masked Marvel): 06 (0-0-2)
Highest placed finisher from King Edward VII: 162231141 (4-3-9)
Highest placed finisher from Voltigeur: 1311531036 (4-3-10)
Highest placed finisher from Gordon Stakes: 233421018 (2-4-9)
6 of 10 winners ran in Great Voltigeur last time, finishing 132112
3 of 10 winners ran in Gordon Stakes last time, finishing 113
6 of 10 winners ran in King Edward VII, finishing 423222
4 of 10 winners ran in the Derby, finishing 0274
3 of 10 winners ran in Irish Derby, finishing 442
2 of 10 winners ran in French Derby, finishing 50
2 of 10 winners ran in Grand Prix de Paris, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in the Dante, finishing 22
Trainers
Aidan O’Brien (3-4-26) has won 3 of the last 10 renewals but saddled a whopping 26 runners (over a quarter of the total runners). His first string has a record of 3-3-10.
John Gosden (2-0-3) has won 2 of the last 4 runnings.
Michael Stoute (1-2-12) finally gained his first win in this race in 2008 with Conduit.
Mark Johnston (0-2-3) has seen 2 of his 3 runners make the places.
Price
No strong trends on prices, the last 2 winners have gone off 12/1 & 14/1 but they have been the only 2 winners priced above 8/1 in past 15 years.
Favourites (5-4-11) have won 5 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 1.16.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· By a sire with stamina index of 10.9F to 11.6F
· Related to Sadler’s Wells or Diesis
· Sire finished in first 2 in Epsom/French Derby
· Run 4 or 5 times this season
· Finished in first 3 last time out (ideally won)
· Posted a career high RPR in last 2 outings
· Ran in past 60 days
· Won a group race over 1M 3F to 1M 4F
· Finished in first 3 in Great Voltigeur or Gordon Stakes last time
· Finished in first 4 in King Edward VII or Irish Derby
· Trained by Aidan O’Brien or John Gosden
Conclusion -- not a great breeding card and this makes it more difficult so we have to go on more recent form - derby does not hold many clues apart from the Gosden animal Masked Marvel who prob found the derby came too soon only finishing 8th is well bred for the distance if not in the pink and is an improver no doubt about it - Blue Bunting has the form and Frankie to get her home but the form looks to be the Voltegier Stakes and the possible revival of
Seville upped in Distance today -
Finished second in the Dante the Irish Derby and the Grand Prix de Paris, and was 8lb clear on BHA figures running against Sea Moon. He came there to show narrowly ahead, but couldn´t quicken up for pressure as the winner pulled right away from him and lost second spot too late on. Deposed as Leger favourite, he is obviously a high-class colt who is crying out for this extra distance Resulttttttttttttttt A good edition of the year´s final classic, judged on recent runnings anyway, that very much revolved around Sea Moon, who looked a star in the making at York. Memories of Rewilding, who had also been impressive in the Voltiguer and came here as a short-price favourite before flopping, were fresh in the memory, though, and for all that he ran well, looking unfortunate not to claim second, it´s probable his latest victory had just taken the edge off of him.
It´s hard to remember a St Leger run at such a strong gallop, leading to a track record despite there being a headwind in the straight, and the market principals were wisely ridden under restraint.
John Gosden, bidding for a fourth win in the race, and third in five years following last season´s triumph with Arctic Cosmos, relied on MASKED MARVEL, who´d been put aside specifically for the race since gaining a narrow verdict over Census in the Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket early in July, and the son of Montjeu ran out an impressive winner in thecircumstances. William Buick rode a fine race, being more than happy to sit midfield, ahead of the market leaders, and whilst others were under pressure trying to make their move rounding the final bend, he was sitting relatively motionless, creeping nearer and nearer to the lead. Considering the headwind, it was a good decision not to commit too soon, but once he did, the response was impressive and the pair were never in any danger from over 1f out. He´d been a bit hit-and-miss up until this point, albeit his Derby eighth at a relatively early stage was a fair effort, and John Gosden deserves all the credit for given him the time he so clearly needed to reach a peak. As a grandson of a German St Leger winner, by a sire who´s an influence for stamina, it was surprising some questioned whether he´d stay (interestingly Gosden said afterwards he´d pegged him as a St Leger horse before he´d even run), but there´s little doubt he´s got the pace, and certainly the ability, to prove as effective back at 1m4f, and it´ll be fascinating to see which route he takes, for the remainder of this season and next, with the stable also housing King George winner Nathaniel.
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