The Ayr Gold Cup, Saturday 17th September

 I will try and access from another machine Saturday morning for my thoughts on this race

The Ayr Gold Cup, which takes place on the Saturday 17th September, is the most valuable sprint handicap run in Europe. Run over 6 furlongs, it has been dominated in recent years by Dandy Nicholls. Horses that don’t make the cut for this run in the Silver Cup earlier on Saturday and the Bronze Cup on Friday, both races can often provide clues as to the best place to be drawn.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 1-2-34

4yo: 4-7-76

5yo: 3-11-64

6yo+: 2-7-42

7yo+: 0-3-47

Horses aged between 4 and 6 have won 9 of the last 10, though that age group has represented almost 70% of the total runners.

Horses aged 7 or older have not won the race since 1993 and only 3 of their 47 representatives in the last 10 years have made the frame.

Weights

Horses carrying 9-6 or over: 1-5-29

Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-5: 4-12-76

Horses carrying 8-6 to 8-13: 4-10-129

Horses carrying 8-5 or less: 0-2-19

5 of the last 6 winners carried over 9-0 with the one exception being a horse allotted 9-1 with a 5lb claimer. The first 4 home in past 2 years all carried 9-2 or more.

Horses carrying a penalty: 1-6-26

Top weight: 0003009200370 (0-3-13)

Official Ratings

Horses rated 101 or higher: 1-12-75

Horses rated 90 to 100: 9-17-174

Horses rated 89 or less: 0-1-14

In recent years the trend has been towards higher rated horses. The last 6 winners were all rated 97 or higher and 21 of 24 placed horses in the past 6 years were rated 97+.

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners ran in a class 3 or better last time out

8 of 10 winners had run in past 30 days (2 exceptions ran in past 50 days)

10 of 10 winners had run at least 4 times that season

8 of 10 winners gained 0 or 1 win that season (6 hadn't won)

8 of 10 winners had won over at 6F (2 exceptions won over 7F)

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won a class 3 or better

7 of 10 winners had run in a listed or group race

9 of 10 winners had last run at Haydock, Goodwood or Doncaster

8 of 10 winners (last 8) had won a race with 14+ runners in it

Other Races

Al Rayan Handicap winner (Pastoral Player): 683440 (0-3-6)

Great St Wilfrid winner (Pepper Lane): 40720 (0-2-5)

Symphony Group Stakes winner (Secret Asset): 2 (0-1-1)

Mobile at Bet365 Stakes winner (Secret Asset): 00 (0-0-2)

Gosforth Park Cup winner (Ancient Cross): 00 (0-0-2)

Bet On Wimbledon At totesport H'cap winner (Parisian Pyramid): 800

Northern Sprint Handicap winner (Edinburgh Knight): 905 (0-0-3)

Bet On Live Tennis At totesport H'cap winner (Norville): 800 (0-0-3)

5 of 10 winners ran in the Stewards Cup, finishing 00000

3 of 10 winners ran in the Great St Wilfrid, finishing 004

2 of 10 winners ran in Portland Handicap last time, finishing 40

2 of 10 winners ran in the Wokingham Handicap, finishing 00

2 of 10 winners ran in the Scottish Stewards Cup, finishing 40

Trainers

Dandy Nicholls (5-5-46) has won 5 of the last 10 runnings of this race (including 2 of the last 3) although he has saddled almost 17.5% of the total runners.

Richard Fahey (1-3-15) and Kevin Ryan (1-2-18) have also both saddled the winner and multiple places in the past 10 years.

Clive Cox (1-0-7) is the only other trainer with an entrant to have saddled the winner since 2001.

Three trainers who have struggled in this race are David Barron (0-1-13), Tim Easterby (0-0-7) and Jim Goldie (0-0-15).

Irish-trained-runners (0-2-4) have gained 2 places from 4 runners.

Draw

Horses drawn 1 to 9: 3-11-90

Horses drawn 10 to 18: 4-12-90

Horses drawn 19 or higher: 3-7-83

The winners have come from all over the track. The best option is to view the races run over the sprint course on Thursday and Friday to source clues about the draw.

On the 4 occasions the ground has been on the soft side of good, all 4 winners came from the top or bottom 8 stalls. However on good or firmer 4 of the 6 winners came from the middle.

Price

9 of 10 winners (last 6) were priced between 10/1 and 20/1

There has been no winner priced shorter than 10/1 in last 10 years. The longest priced winner in past 10 years has been 33/1 (2004).

Favourites (0-1-11) have a shocking record in this race having failed to win any of the last 10 and only finding 3 places, level stakes loss of 10.00.

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 4 to 6

·         Carrying 9-0 to 9-6

·         Officially rated 97 or higher

·         Has run at least 4 times this season

·         Won no more than once in 2011 (ideally no wins this year)

·         Ran in a class 3 or better in past 30 days

·         Had last run at Haydock, Goodwood or Doncaster

·         Won at class 3 level or higher

·         Won over 6F or 7F

·         Contested the Stewards Cup and/or Great St Wilfrid in 2011

·         Trained by Dandy Nicholls

·         Priced between 10/1 and 20/1

 good luck all -