Saturday 24 September 2011

Cheveley Park Stakes 24th Sept Newmarket


The Adnams Cheveley Park Stakes is a group 1 for fillies run over 6 furlongs and it takes place at 2.35 Saturday 24th September.  There have been top class winners of this in the past 10 years including Queens Logic, Coronation Stakes winner Indian Ink and 1000 Guineas winners Natagora and Special Duty.


Breeding
10 of 10 winners were born in January, February or March
7 of 10 winners were by a sire with a stamina index of 6.8f to 8.6f
Only 1 of 10 winners was by a sire with a stamina index greater than 10.0f, so fillies with a speedier pedigree are definitely favoured.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners made their racecourse debut in May, June or July
9 of 10 winners had won at least twice before (exception had won a group 2 & was 2nd in a group 1 on previous start)
8 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions 2nd to a colt in Prix Morny)
8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out
10 of 10 winners had won over 6F
8 of 10 winners had contested a group race (2 exceptions ran in a listed race last time)
8 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race (1 exception had won a sales race worth 136K)

Other races
Lowther Stakes winner (Best Terms): 12163731 (3-3-8)
Queen Mary Stakes winner (Best Terms): 133603 (1-2-6)
Sirenia Stakes winner (Shumoos): 21 (1-1-2)
Cherry Hinton winner (Gamilati): 712 (1-1-3) Take note of Shamooz in that race
Scope Charity Conditions Stakes winner (Best Terms): 130 (1-1-3)
Dick Poole Stakes winner (Sajwah): 5025015 (1-1-7)
John Guest Maiden Fillies' Stakes winner (Hello Glory): 1 (1-0-1)
Marygate Fillies Stakes winner (Miss Work Of Art): 1 (1-0-1)
Princess Margaret Stakes winner (Angels Will Fall): 2988 (0-1-4)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Lowther Stakes, finishing 1121
2 of 2 winners trained in France ran in the Prix Morny, finishing 22
2 of 2 winners trained in France ran in the Robert Papin, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the Princess Margaret Stakes, finishing 64
2 of 10 winners ran in the Cherry Hinton, finishing 13


Trainers
British-trained runners: 8-16-78
French-trained runners: 2-0-6
Irish-trained runners: 0-2-18
Brian Meehan (2-2-6) has gained 2 wins (40/1 & 12/1) and 2 places from his 6 runners in this since 2001.
Mick Channon (1-3-5) trained the winner in 1999 and 2001 and has seen 4 of his 5 runners in past 10 years make the frame.
Richard Hannon (1-0-5) is the only other trainer with an entrant to have saddled the winner in the past decade.
Clive Brittain (0-2-3) has seen 2 of his 3 representatives make the places while David Wachman (0-1-3) has trained the third twice since 2001.

Price
8 of 10 winners came from first 3 in the betting
8 of the last 10 winners have been priced 11/2 or lower with both exceptions being trained by Brian Meehan.
Favourites (5-4-11) have won 5 of the last 10 and show a level stakes profit of 6.03.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
·         Born before 31/03/2009
·         Sired by a horse with a stamina index of 6.8 to 8.6
·         Won last time out
·         Won at least twice in 2011
·         Won over 6F
·         Won a group or listed race
·         Finished in first 3 in the Lowther and/or Cherry Hinton
·         Trained by Brian Meehan or Mick Channon
·         First three in the betting
Its hard to look beyond the top of the market and am taking my chances with Shamooz Brian Meehan yard currently 8/1 she has taken the same route to this race as last years winner Hooray who won the kempton AW before coming on to win this - third in the cherry Hinton is decent form has always been aimed at this race and has got her ground she was btn a short head by Best Terms over 5flngs at Ascot but it was a hard race and I think that cost her in the Hinton she has the scope to beat the favourite today - I would not put you off a punt each way on Hello Glory who looks to need this 6flngs and fast ground
The Cheveley Park was this year run a week earlier than usual, being staged in September for the first time since 2006. It´s a race that often fully justifies its top-notch status and has produced the 1,000 Guineas winner three times in the last decade, namely Russian Rhythm (runner-up 2002), Natagora (won 2007) and Special Duty (won 2009). Last season Margot Did, who won this year´s Nunthorpe, finished fifth.

It´s hard to know exactly what to make of this year´s race, but fourth-placed Miss Work Of Art, who´s tough and has run close to 100 on RPRs a few times, helps give the form a solid enough look, and the winner is a high-class juvenile.

Soon after the runners left the stalls there briefly looked set to be a split, with Best Terms leading Angels Will Fall more towards the centre of the course than the others, but the field were as one before long, racing far side. Like the previous day´s racing and this card´s opener, a forward ride near the far rail was helpful and that was the route taken by LIGHTENING PEARL, who was closer to the fence than most.

The winner, supplemented at a cost of £15,000 and a first Group 1 winner for Ger Lyons, paid a compliment of sorts to Maybe, having finished third behind Aidan O´Brien´s unbeaten filly in theGroup 2 Debutante Stakes over 7f two starts ago, although this one improved when dropped back to 6f for a wide-margin Group 3 success next time. She´s bred to get 1m (her dam won a Listed race at the trip) and it might be somewhat coincidental that the her improvement has coincided with a drop in distance, but clearly 6f suits her well and she was a decisive scorer after being well placed. Her low, fluent action suggests the quick ground was also favourable.

Lightening Pearl´s connections have every right to point her towards the Guineas and, while she has to prove she can mix it at this level over further, that´s built into her odds for the first fillies´ Classic with 20-1 being generally available. Her ability to handle this track, especially on quick ground, is an obvious plus. There is apparently an outside chance she will run in the Marcel Boussac which Pearl Bloodstock sponsor.

Sunday Times was well beaten in the Lowther, but prior to that she´d impressed when winning her maiden at Goodwood, so her performance here perhaps wasn´t quite the surprise her odds suggest. She was going on strongly at the finish and deserves extra credit considering the track had been favouring pace. It´s possible she´ll now go for the Bosra Sham Stakes, a C&D fillies´ Listed event in which Peter Chapple-Hyam sent out this one´s sister, Question Times, to finish runner-up last season.

Angels Will Fall had struggled since creating a good impression in the Princess Margaret at Ascot (subsequent Prestige Stakes winner Regal Realm runner-up), but this was more like it. Her performance needs upgrading a touch as she was keen without a great deal of cover for a lot of the way, probably not helped by being draw high and racing wide of the majority of the others early on.

Miss Work Of Art has been busy, most recently finishing a well beaten second in what looked an ordinary running of the Group 3 Firth of Clyde on soft going. Faced with contrasting conditions here, she was under pressure a fair way out butraced close to the helpful far rail and kept on admirably.

Best Terms came into this unbeaten in four starts, including the Queen Mary and Lowther (defied 3lb penalty), but she had the run of the race from the front in the latter. Lacking the scope of some of these, she was much too keen from the start and it was soon apparent she wouldn´t be extending her winning sequence. She was kept apart from the main bunch early, but wouldn´t settle and gradually faded out of it after facing pace pressure. We´ve probably seen the best of this likeable type.

Hello Glory impressed when winning an Ascot maiden before finishing third in the Lowther, but she struggled on this further rise in class.

Lady Gorgeous was well beaten in the Lowther and doesn´t look up to this level even allowing for her finding a bit of trouble late on.

Shumoos lacks size, and, though she somewhat belatedly added to her impressive maiden win when taking a Polytrack Group 3 latest, she was well beaten on her return to turf.
Sajwah responded well to a positive ride to win a Salisbury Listed contest (race won in 2008 by Serious Attitude, who followed up here) on her previous start, and she was again ridden forwardly, but she went lame. It was reported that she broke her pelvis and later she sadly had to be put down. [RW]

QUOTES: Ger Lyons, trainer of Lightening Pearl: "It was a no brainer to supplement her after the way she won the Round Tower. She could be finished for the year and then we will come back her for the Guineas."

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