The Shadwell Fillies’ Mile, which used to take place at Ascot, will now be run at Newmarket today Friday 23rd September. A group 1 run over a mile for 2yo fillies, it gives the winner automatic qualification to the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. today's going of g/frm
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Breeding
10 of 10 winners were by a sire with stamina index of 8.8 to 11.4
3 of 10 winners were sired by Sadler's Wells (Devotion)
Recent Form
10 of 10 winners made racecourse debut in June, July or August
8 of 10 winners won last time out (both exceptions were 2nd in a group race)
10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out
8 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F (exceptions: 2nd in Group 1 over 7F and 2nd in group 2 over a mile)
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 50 days
9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times
8 of 10 winners had won a listed or group race (1 exception had yet not run in pattern company & other was 2nd in group 2)
8 of 10 winners had never finished outside the first 3
6 of 10 winners had won at Newmarket (2 exceptions not run here)
Other Races
May Hill Stakes winner (Lyric Of Light): 4813111 (4-0-7)
"Platinum" Maiden winner (Lyric Of Light/Semayyel): 14 (1-0-2)
Silver Flash Stakes winner (Maybe): 2 (0-1-1)
Moyglare Stud Stakes winner (Maybe): 3 (0-0-1)
Adnams Bitter EBF Maiden winner (Fallen For You): 453 (0-0-3)
5 of 10 winners ran in the May Hill last time, finishing 11121 Lyric of light
Fallen For You -----(Samitar 3rd and Semayyel 5th)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Sweet Solera, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners ran in the Moyglare Stud, finishing 72
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prestige Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the Princess Margaret Stakes, finishing 33
Trainers
John Gosden (3-0-5) has saddled 6 runners since 2000, 4 have won (all priced 5/1 or less) and 2 unplaced (both priced 20/1).
Aidan O’Brien (1-4-8) trained the winner in 2007 and seen 5 of his 8 runners make the frame.
Clive Brittain (1-0-5) is the only other trainer, with an entrant this year, to have saddled the winner since 2001.
Price
10 of 10 winners were priced 8/1 or below
Since 2001 only one horse priced above 5/1 has won this, Hibaayeb at 8/1 in 2009.
Favourites (4-2-10) have won of the last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 2.73.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Made debut in June, July or August
· Won last time out, posting highest RPR (no worse than 2nd)
· Ran in last 50 days
· Won over 7F or 1M
· Won a listed or group race
· Previously won at Newmarket (or having first course start)
· Run at least twice this season
· Won the May Hill Stakes
· Trained John Gosden
· Priced 8/1 or shorter
Frankie Dettori riding Lyric of Light has all the stats for this race and will be a red hot favourite with the Yard in cracking form the race she won showed she has the class for this and the yard said this was her next target. Beating Fallen For You (Gosden yard) who looked a s green as grass was carried off a straight line and that what her supporters will be hoping cost her the race the run will have given her experience much needed
I really like the chances of Firedaw who ran a cracker at salisbury she has to be in the reckoning upped to this trip her breeding is classic from the Oaks winner Eswarah and had only just failed to make a winning debut when runner-up over 7flngs at Newbury (form already been boosted). She made hard enough work of going one place better, but in fairness the widest draw was no help and the further she went the better she looked, this trip must suit her more -- So what is the joker in the pack? it has to be place chances for Devotion (sire Sadlers Wells top-class 8-12f runner, exceptional sire, frequently gets top-class 2yos from summer onwards at 7f+) She simply floundered in the mud on her try at 8flngs 12 days ago she is a really big scopey filly who needs fast ground to show her best
its a great race let me know your angle
Bob
Although the Fillies´ Mile was run here in 2005, this was first running of this top prize away from Ascot as part of the deal that will see next month´s Champions Day move away from this venue to the Royal Berkshire track.
They looked a decent bunch on paddock inspection and, not surprisingly due to the bias against hold-up performers, the race was run at a solid pace. The first pair came clear in a stirring finish and the form looks straightforward enough.
LYRIC OF LIGHT took her career recordto 3-3 with a last-gasp success and confirmed herself a filly out of the top drawer, extending the excellent record of May Hill winners in this race. She again raced under restraint, which wasn´t the place to be according to earlier races on the card, and travelled supremely well into contention on the outside when Frankie Dettori asked her to close. She initially hit a flat spot when put under pressure, though, and despite responding at the furlong marker, again hung right nearing the finish. However, her rider always looked confident of getting there and she is value for a good deal better than the bare margin. This was the quickest ground she had raced on thus far and she´s evidently versatile, which will prove a notable advantage in her career. Her tendency to hang under maximum pressure is probably still down to inexperience, though Dettori felt she wasn´t in love with the surface, and she certainly has the scope to continue on an upwards curve.
While it´s fair to assume with any juvenile who wins over this trip that they will get further as a 3yo, the winner´s pedigree does suggest this could be as far as she wants to go. Her turn of foot was also evident for all to see and there is no reason to look beyond the 1000 Guineas next year at this stage. She was trimmed into a general 10-1 for the first fillies´ classic afterwards and, although her trainer also houses the unbeaten Discourse who is one place ahead of her in the ante-post betting, that price looks generous enough considering she is now proven over the C&D. Her stablemate is also on the sidelines at present after picking up what connections described as a minor setback and still has to prove her stamina. With that in mind Lyric Of Light looks the solid pick to hand Godolphin a second successive 1000 Guineas, as there is still very likely more to come as she matures. Somewhat surprisingly her trainer later didn´t rule out a trip to the Breeder´s Cup in November, presumably for the very valuable Juvenile Fillies´ Turf, and that dictates one should hold fire at present on any ante-post betting until plans become clearer.
Samitar appeared to have her work cut out reversing last-time-out Doncaster form with the winner, but connections got the tactics spot on in switching to front-running considering the pace bias and she very nearly pulled it off. She was there to be shot at 2f out, but kept responding and proved most game. She got the run of things, but finished well clear of the remainder and evidently enjoyed this quicker surface.
The highly regarded Firdaws should have won on her Newbury debut yet made hard work of justifying prohibitive odds when off the mark at Salisbury next time. That was probably another decent maiden, though, and she proved popular on this big jump up in class, upped to a trip she seemed likely to relish. She sat just off the pace and held every chance, but lacked the speed of the first pair late on. She remains a top prospect for middle-distances next year and can be backed at 25-1 for the Oaks, the Classic her dam won in 2005.
The proximity of 83-rated Salford Art at first glance clouds the water of this form. However, she wasn´t seen near her best on easier ground in a nursery on the July course last time (well backed) and this was much more like her true colours. Again she did her best work late in the day, against the pace bias, and strongly appeals as one to follow when up in trip next year.
The disappointment was Fallen For You, who was just touched off by the winner in the May Hill last time and looked to have solid claims of gaining revenge seeing as she wasn´t done any favours by that rival there. However, she pulled her way into a prominent position from halfway and ultimately paid the price once meeting the rising finish. The fact she was still travelling as well as any nearing the final furlong shows what an engine she possesses and, while she may not quite be a filly for the top level next year, she is certainly not one to be writing off yet.
Aidan O´Brien elected not to send over current 1000 Guineas favourite Maybe for the race and relied instead on Devotion, who finished fourth in Listed company at the Curragh on her fourth start 12 days earlier. Her powerful connections will be satisfied with her proximity here, giving them a handle on the form, but no doubt this was a career-best back on suitably quicker ground. She could well have more to offer over a longer trip as a 3yo.
Although the Fillies´ Mile was run here in 2005, this was first running of this top prize away from Ascot as part of the deal that will see next month´s Champions Day move away from this venue to the Royal Berkshire track.
They looked a decent bunch on paddock inspection and, not surprisingly due to the bias against hold-up performers, the race was run at a solid pace. The first pair came clear in a stirring finish and the form looks straightforward enough.
LYRIC OF LIGHT took her career recordto 3-3 with a last-gasp success and confirmed herself a filly out of the top drawer, extending the excellent record of May Hill winners in this race. She again raced under restraint, which wasn´t the place to be according to earlier races on the card, and travelled supremely well into contention on the outside when Frankie Dettori asked her to close. She initially hit a flat spot when put under pressure, though, and despite responding at the furlong marker, again hung right nearing the finish. However, her rider always looked confident of getting there and she is value for a good deal better than the bare margin. This was the quickest ground she had raced on thus far and she´s evidently versatile, which will prove a notable advantage in her career. Her tendency to hang under maximum pressure is probably still down to inexperience, though Dettori felt she wasn´t in love with the surface, and she certainly has the scope to continue on an upwards curve.
While it´s fair to assume with any juvenile who wins over this trip that they will get further as a 3yo, the winner´s pedigree does suggest this could be as far as she wants to go. Her turn of foot was also evident for all to see and there is no reason to look beyond the 1000 Guineas next year at this stage. She was trimmed into a general 10-1 for the first fillies´ classic afterwards and, although her trainer also houses the unbeaten Discourse who is one place ahead of her in the ante-post betting, that price looks generous enough considering she is now proven over the C&D. Her stablemate is also on the sidelines at present after picking up what connections described as a minor setback and still has to prove her stamina. With that in mind Lyric Of Light looks the solid pick to hand Godolphin a second successive 1000 Guineas, as there is still very likely more to come as she matures. Somewhat surprisingly her trainer later didn´t rule out a trip to the Breeder´s Cup in November, presumably for the very valuable Juvenile Fillies´ Turf, and that dictates one should hold fire at present on any ante-post betting until plans become clearer.
Samitar appeared to have her work cut out reversing last-time-out Doncaster form with the winner, but connections got the tactics spot on in switching to front-running considering the pace bias and she very nearly pulled it off. She was there to be shot at 2f out, but kept responding and proved most game. She got the run of things, but finished well clear of the remainder and evidently enjoyed this quicker surface.
The highly regarded Firdaws should have won on her Newbury debut yet made hard work of justifying prohibitive odds when off the mark at Salisbury next time. That was probably another decent maiden, though, and she proved popular on this big jump up in class, upped to a trip she seemed likely to relish. She sat just off the pace and held every chance, but lacked the speed of the first pair late on. She remains a top prospect for middle-distances next year and can be backed at 25-1 for the Oaks, the Classic her dam won in 2005.
The proximity of 83-rated Salford Art at first glance clouds the water of this form. However, she wasn´t seen near her best on easier ground in a nursery on the July course last time (well backed) and this was much more like her true colours. Again she did her best work late in the day, against the pace bias, and strongly appeals as one to follow when up in trip next year.
The disappointment was Fallen For You, who was just touched off by the winner in the May Hill last time and looked to have solid claims of gaining revenge seeing as she wasn´t done any favours by that rival there. However, she pulled her way into a prominent position from halfway and ultimately paid the price once meeting the rising finish. The fact she was still travelling as well as any nearing the final furlong shows what an engine she possesses and, while she may not quite be a filly for the top level next year, she is certainly not one to be writing off yet.
Aidan O´Brien elected not to send over current 1000 Guineas favourite Maybe for the race and relied instead on Devotion, who finished fourth in Listed company at the Curragh on her fourth start 12 days earlier. Her powerful connections will be satisfied with her proximity here, giving them a handle on the form, but no doubt this was a career-best back on suitably quicker ground. She could well have more to offer over a longer trip as a 3yo.
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