The Betfred Eider Handicap Chase, which takes place at Newcastle on today Saturday 25th February, 3.25 is run over a marathon trip of 4M 1F and is one of the highlight of Newcastle’s national hunt season. In 2008 Comply Or Die won it en route to bagging the Grand National. Last year, very testing ground meant there were only 3 finishers, hopefully it’s not quite so soft this time around.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings (1999-2011):
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-1-1
7yo: 0-3-11
8yo: 3-4-25
9yo: 4-5-39
10yo: 2-5-44
11yo+: 1-3-20
12yo+: 0-3-14
Horses aged 6 to 9 have a combined record of 7-13-76
Horses aged 10+ have a combined record of 3-11-78, though all 3 of their wins came on heavy ground. Older chasers seem more able to handle really testing conditions, so take the going into consideration when considering whether to favour older or younger horses.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 11-0 or more: 8-9-53
Horses carrying 10-13 or less: 2-15-101
Clearly horses carrying 11-0+ are preferred having won the last 8 renewals
Top Weight: 856P31P4P11P5P (3-2-14) have accounted for 3 of the last 6 winners.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 123 or higher: 9-9-73
Horses rated 122 or lower: 1-15-81
The last 8 winners have been officially rated 123 or higher and 5 of the last 6 winners were rated 131 to 139
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 on their last completed start
9 of 10 winners had run in the last 30 days
5 of 10 winners won on 1 of last 2 starts (3 of 5 exceptions finishing 2nd last time out)
10 of 10 winners had won over 3M 1F+
10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in a chase over 3M+
9 of 10 winners had run in 5 to 11 handicap chases (2 exceptions had run in 0 or 1 h'cap chase)
10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or higher chase
7 of 10 winners had won a chase worth 20K+
10 of 10 winners had fallen no more than once (8 had never fallen over fences)
0 from 10 winners had won at the track (only 3 had previously run at Newcastle)
All 10 winners were having their first start in the race.
Other Races
North Yorkshire Grand National winner (Posh Bird): 15 (1-0-2)
Punchestown Grand National Trial winner (Portrait King): P (0-0-1)
Axminster Devon Marathon Handicap Chase winner (Drybrook Bedouin): 6 (0-0-1)
2 of 10 winners ran in 3M1F Nov H’cap Chase at Scottish National meeting, finishing P1
2 of 10 winners had run in the previous Scottish National, finishing 70
2 of 10 winners had run in the Becher Chase, finishing F4
2 of 10 winners ran in Bet At Victor Chandler Chase at Cheltenham on NYD, finishing P7
Both Irish-trained winners had run in the Thyestes Chase & Paddy Power H’cap Chase that season
Racecourse Tactics
6 of 10 winners (last 3) led or raced prominently
4 of 10 winners were held up
Trainers
Ferdy Murphy (1-4-10) trained the winner in 2001 and has seen 5 of his 10 runners make the frame in past 10 renewals.- NEGUS DE BEAUMONT
Nick Williams (1-0-2) won the race in 2006 and is only other trainer with entry to have won it since 1999.PRESENT M´LORD
Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-3-4) has seen 3 of his 4 runners makes the frame while Kate Walton (0-2-5) has saddled Morgan Be to be placed in last 2 runnings.
Sue Smith (0-0-9) has not had much luck in this, seeing her last 9 runners finish unplaced.
Irish-trained runners (2-1-9) have won 2 of the last 10 renewals from approximately 6% of the runners.
Price
8 of 10 winners came from the first 6 in the betting and were 11/1 or shorter
Companero won the race at 16/1 last year, though it was a slightly freak result owing to the very soft ground, in which only 3 finished.
Favourites (1-4-11) have gained just 1 win in the past 10 runnings, giving a level stakes loss of 5.00.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 to 9 (unless it’s heavy ground)
- Carrying 11-0+ (top weight does well)
- Officially rated 123 or higher (ideally rated 131 to 139)
- Finished in the first 4 on last start in past 30 days
- Won one of last two starts
- Run in 5 to 11 handicap chases
- Won over 3M 1F+
- Won a class 3 or higher chase worth 20K+
- Ran in a chase at 2011 Scottish National meeting
- Having first run in an Eider Chase
- Trained by Ferdy Murphy or in Ireland
- Priced 11/1 or shorter
1 comment:
Going
The Eider Chase is the big race of the day and the going for racing here is good in the home straight and good to soft in the back straight.
Portrait king (nag me Horse)- Progressing well over fences now, last time off the mark as a chaser when taking 3m4f Punchestown handicap (heavy; acts on yielding); handicapper has had his say but this 7yo probably has more to offer and has to be respected.
Posh Bird (nag me horse) Done well for her new stable last couple of times, landing first chase win in 3m6f Catterick handicap before running Mister Marker close in fairly useful 3m1f Ayr handicap; up another 6lb since last time and needs another step forward.
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