Wednesday 8 February 2012

Thursday!

Thursday February 9 2012
Thurles 13:30
Tote Placepot Races 1 to 6 Chase
€14500.00 added, 5yo plus, 2m 6f
Winner €10006 2nd €2320 3rd €1015 4th €580
11 runners
N/A


No.
Form Horse Age Wt Trainer Jockey OR NagMe Bet
1 silks 375-P49 Elysian Rock 95 Course and Dist winner 8 11-8 t M F Morris M J Ferris 125 nag me SP
2 silks 2130R6 Kakagh (IRE) 12 Course winner 8 11-8 W Harney B J Cooper 123 nag me SP
3 silks P86253 Baily View (IRE) 26 9 11-4 p C O'Dwyer B R Dalton (7) 114 nag me SP
4 silks 9-0223P Indifference Curve (FR) 44 Course and Dist winner 10 11-4 p Miss M M O'Sullivan B J Geraghty 127 nag me SP
5 silks 2-P0800 Lurgan (IRE) 4 Course and Dist winner 10 11-4 H De Bromhead A E Lynch 119 nag me SP
6 silks 988757 Ponmeoath (IRE) 21 Course winner 12 11-4 p E McNamara E J McNamara 130 nag me SP
7 silks 418U10 Selection Box (IRE) 26 Distance winner 11 11-4 C A McBratney S W Flanagan 123 nag me SP
8 silks 2/47231 Quietly Fancied (IRE) 21 Course winner 8 11-1 O McKiernan Mr R P Quinlan (5) 124 nag me SP
9 silks 1-661F5 Raptor (FR) 19 7 11-1 W P Mullins R Walsh 130 nag me SP
10 silks 231300 Rivage D'Or (FR) 14 Course and Dist winner 7 11-1 D T Hughes D N Russell 127 nag me SP
11 silks 36-2133 Quarryvale (IRE) 14 Course winner Beaten Favourite 8 10-11 b J J Mangan P F Mangan (3) 118 nag me SP

Betting Forecast: 11/4 Raptor, 5/1 Rivage D'Or, 6/1 Quietly Fancied, 15/2 Indifference Curve, 8/1 Selection Box, 10/1 Elysian Rock, 10/1 Ponmeoath, 12/1 Kakagh, 12/1 Quarryvale, 16/1 Baily View, 16/1 Lurgan
Verdict Quietly Fancied is on an upward curve judged on an effortless victory over 2m4f here last month. He's yet to win on heavy ground, however, and has an extra quarter-mile to cover today. RAPTOR has been quite highly tried since winning at Punchestown in November. The drop in distance here looks in his favour and it would be no surprise to see Willie Mullins' seven-year-old back in the winner's enclosure as veteran Ponmeoath, who is arguably the pick of the weights, doesn't appear to be the force of old. Rivage D'Or and Quarryvale are both worth a second look, however, with the consistent Baily View probably the pick of the remainder.

My impression:

Im gonna have a bet on Elysian Rock here sired by King`s Theatre. I watched all the animals on the video and had a look at their buildup. Elysian Rock is very interesting horse a medium sized horse with heaps of muscles that will love the step down in distance and the right handed sharp track+ Ground I think. It looks a bit of class in this horse, as finished over 3mile here in Thurles on Soft Ground in a very strong field 1st against 154 rated Apt Approach now and several other good ones. This distance is a key I think, as this 2m6f should be def ideal for this horse, LTO it lost over 3m4f against Indifference Curve, but this was way too much in distance and the rider stopped late and didnt continue so the beaten lenghts is not the real.
Out of form is the horse not I think, as his 4th 2nd LTO was also against classier horses, it needs right handed and sharp track its a muscular horse that can make the running out of itself and the sharp side of the track is good i feel. Probably the odds tommorow will be good and hopefully i can grab some 20+ early betfair.

Finally backed this morning 36/1 on Betfair is i think a great price for this race. And to place for 7.6 12.00 oclock.

Good luck! rade


6 comments:

Unknown said...

this is a tuff one to crack - thought Quarryvale showed a return to form last time and will prefer its chances to your selection Rade it is definitely a 3mile horse who goes through heavy ground well- heavy ground may help yours but that's not a given on its breeding. One to watch out for in the betting has to be Kakagh any money for this one will attract me.

Benhorseracing said...

Tuff race, I also fancy Raptor on his effort in Leo was making the pace for stable mate Alle Garde in a class race we analysed together and travelled nicely I thought from the front, is a very quirky small horse though and the track will suit, but the odds are so small, its not worth a punt I think, even when the distance step down is a positive aswell.Kakagh you ve notes on him?

Unknown said...

27 oct 11 Clonmel - 2m4f soft ground - This race produced previous winners such as subsequent Irish National hero Hear The Echo, Glenfinn Captain and Vic Venturi and it certainly didn´t lack quality again with KAKAGH coming out on top under a quality ride from Barry Geraghty. front running today and got better and better as the race went on. the run in was attracting me to this horse he looked sure to be headed but he answered every call. Watch out for this one over further especially with geraghty

Unknown said...

Dont Like Raptor in this race think is punching above his weight is still very novice'y the price today is all about Ruby taking the ride.
Geraghty taking the ride on the mud loving Indifference Curve who is ground and CD winner and a real lil fighter - has been dropped to the same mark as its run in the Irish national (too far)if its switched off and travelling well will attract a few quid in running as its Geraghty pick

Benhorseracing said...

Boom for Bob!

Unknown said...

1:30 - Tote Placepot Races 1 to 6 Chase
Full result
2m6f, €10,005.00
1 Quarryvale 5/1
2 Raptor 15/8F
3 Kakagh 14/1
11 ran Distances: 11l, 8l, 4l
TIME 6m 7.50s (slow by 39.50s)This was a real exhibition from the front by QUARRYVALE. Her jumping was a joy to behold as she kept up a strong gallop from start to finish, and despite things being made easier for her by the mistake her main pursuer made at the second last, one suspects she would have stayed there anyway. She enjoys soft ground, has a willing attitude, and there should be a good chase in her somewhere along the line.

Raptor ran better than his lifeless effort at Naas last time. His supporters can point tohis mistake at the second last but really there were no real signs that he was going to lay down a challenge.

Kakagh was struggling and looked disinterested for much of the contest. He did end up staying on to some degree but it was a lacklustre effort and he continues to look not straightforward.