Hennessy trends - today at leoparsdstown 120212 3.45

Sorry am late on parade with the stats for this race - its usually a cracker - hope these help - Going: Yielding to Soft, Yeilding in places that means very soft in England!

The Hennessy Gold Cup race has a great history, it has been won by some great Irish chasers in the past decade including Florida Pearl and Beef Or Salmon, though British trained-runners have been faring well in the race recently.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 0-1-1

7yo: 3-2-5

8yo: 1-5-15

9yo: 3-2-20

10yo: 1-2-12

11yo+: 2-0-13

Horses aged 6 to 9 have a combined record of 7-10-41

Horses aged 10 or above have a record of 3-2-25. The 3 winners aged older than 9 were Florida Pearl in 2002 (had won the race 3 times previously) and Beef Or Salmon in 2006 & 2007 (his 2nd & 3rd successes in the race)

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on last completed start

10 of 10 winners had run since Christmas

10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 3 times over fences since August

10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase

8 of 10 winners had previously won at Leopardstown (2 exceptions: Neptune Collonges fallen 2 out when still going well in Lexus and Joncol close 3rd in the Lexus on only course start)

8 of 10 winners had won over 3M (both exceptions placed in the Lexus last time out)

Other Races

Lexus Chase winner (Synchronised): 1212 (2-2-4)

JNWine Champion Chase winner (Quito De La Roque): 121 (2-1-3)

John Durkan Chase winner (Rubi Light): 411 (2-0-3)

RSA Chase winner (Bostons Angel): 12 (1-1-2)

Normans Grove Chase winner (Blazing Tempo): 216 (1-1-3)

Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Follow The Plan): P214 (1-1-4)

Growise Champion Novice Chase winner (Quito De La Roque): 1 (1-0-1)

Thurles Chase winner (Apt Approach): 52 (0-1-2)

Previous season's Fort Leney Novice Chase winner (Bostons Angel): 6F2 (0-1-3)

Previous season's PJ Moriarty Novice Chase winner (Bostons Angel): 53F42 (0-1-5)

Previous season's Drinmore Novice Chase winner (Jessies Dream): 53 (0-0-2)

9 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus Chase last time, finishing 31F123F3U

5 of 10 winners ran in this race the previous season, finishing 2P212

5 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 8P003

4 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Gold Cup, finishing 5521

2 of 10 winners ran in the John Durkan, finishing 11

2 of 10 winners ran in the JNWine Champion Chase, finishing 1U

2 of 10 winners ran in the Hilly Way Chase, finishing 13

2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in previous Growise Champion Novice Chase, finishing 31

2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in previous Nas Na Riogh Novice Chase, finishing 11

The last 3 RSA Chase winners to run in this have been Florida Pearl 1st in 1999, Rule Supreme 1st in 2005 and Cooldine 2nd in 2010.

Trainers

Willie Mullins (4-3-13) has won 6 of the last 12 renewals, including last year’s race with the ill-fated Kempes.

Paul Nicholls (1-1-2) has saddled 2 runners in this race: the runner-up in 2008 and the winner in 2009.

British trained runners (2-3-10) have won 2 of the last 4 renewals.

Price

10 of 10 winners were priced 11/2 or below

The favourite (5-4-10) has a good record, winning 5 of last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 1.27.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 6 to 9 (or a previous winner of the race)

·         Finished in the first 3 on last completed chase start

·         Has run since Christmas

·         Run in 1 to 3 chases this season

·         Won a grade 1 chase

·         Won over 3 miles

·         Previously won at Leopardstown (or placed in Lexus last time)

·         Ran in 2011 Cheltenham and/or Punchestown Gold Cups

·         Finished in the first 2 in last year’s race

·         Finished in the first 3 or fell in the Lexus Chase last time out

·         Priced 11/2 or shorter

·         Trained by Willie Mullins or in Britain

I have at this time narrowed it down to Follow the Plan who is already attracting support - in from 20s to 12s he ran a blindr last time behind Apt Approach - was having his second run of the season and probably ran as well in defeat here as he did when landing the race  last year. Content to track the pace, his rider tried to take advantage and use his horse´s stamina after the winner almost came down three out and it looked like working. However, Apr Approach was just too good on the day and drew clear of him from the last. It was a decent effort and should begin to set him up nicely for his spring targets.

 Bostons Angel who is a course and  distance winner on heavy ground - Landed third Grade 1 of novice season in RSA Chase at Cheltenham and not done with when unseating at Down Royal on return. Bit laboured when third at Sandown last time but now tried in cheekpieces.(that's a bit of a worry to be honest))

 I see that Rad has a fancy for the 11 yr old Treacle (winner in the past of the Munster National) is no forlorn hope at big prices based on its run last time in Paddy Power chase  behind Cross Appeal - beating some good horses at that 3miles soft  He was 9lb higher there and ran a big race, making steady progress from 4 out and staying on well on the run-in, having been fifth over the final fence. Producing that sort of form today he can be placed - its not often a horse aged 11 takes his place in the line up and they can win it but haven't been placed in the past (2-0-13)

I would not discount the very good run of Roberto Goldback who ran a very respectable 4th in the Lexus and is tried in blinkers first time today but his 10l behind Apt Approach and the neck behind Follow The Plan puts him in a good light if the blinkers work today  deserves to win a nice race. He jumped well and got to the front before what was effectively the final fence. I think bypassing the final fence might just have inconvenienced him marginally more than the winner.and anywhere Follow the Plan finishes (and I fancy the win this one will be upsides - he's the better jumper in the main hes the joker in the pack under Geraghty

 Good Luck 

 Bob