The Betfred Grand National Trial (formerly Blue Square Gold Cup) is a grade 3 handicap chase run over 3M 4F, which takes place at Haydock on Saturday 18th February. It can often provide clues for the different Grand Nationals run later in the season and previous form in other Nationals is often a good guide to finding the winner of this.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-0-2
7yo: 2-7-22
8yo: 2-6-35
9yo: 3-3-28
10yo: 1-3-27
11yo+: 2-3-32
12yo+: 0-1-9
Horses aged 7 to 9 have a combined record of 8-18-85
Horses aged 10 or older have a combined record of 2-7-59
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 11-7 to 11-13: 2-4-19
Horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6: 2-5-36
Horses carrying 10-6 to 10-13: 3-8-48
Horses carrying 10-0 to 10-5: 3-7-37
Horses carrying 9-13 or less: 0-0-6
Not a huge amount to go on with the weights with the weights of the winners being fairly evenly spread out.
Top Weight: P13PFPP132P1 (3-3-12) have gained 3 wins and 3 places since 2001.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 147 to 158: 2-4-23
Horses rated 135 to 146: 5-11-66
Horses rated 118 to 134: 3-10-57
The last 4 winners were all officially rated 143 to 149.
| 147 | Always Right 11-0 | 118 | 118 | 130 | 142 | 140 | 148 | 140 | 118 | |||
| 145 | Mon Mome 10-12 | 153 | 148 | 155 | — | 144 | 145 | 148 | 115 | |||
| 140 | Le Beau Bai 10-7 | 135 | 135 | 131 | 132 | 127 | 131 | 139 | 127 | |||
Recent/Past Form
5 of 10 winners won last time out
9 of 10 winners won or placed last time out (exception was Silver By Nature winning it for 2nd year)
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 145+ on previous start
10 of 10 winner achieved previous career high RPR at a left-handed track
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 7F+
10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 11 handicap chases
7 of 10 winners had won no more than one handicap chase
8 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or better chase (2 exceptions won a class 3 chase)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won a chase worth 17K+
8 of 10 winners contested a class 2 or better handicap chase over 3M+ on one or both of last 2 starts (both exceptions were novices)
4 of 10 winners had previously won at Haydock (4 of other 6 were having first course start)
Other Races
Welsh National winner (Le Beau Bai): 2P51P (1-1-5)
Highest placed Welsh National finisher to run in this: 2P1P5318P2 (2-3-10)
Highest placed finisher from Classic Chase: P16P34P(1-2-7)
Rhys Howells Memorial Handicap Chase winner (Le Beau Bai): 3 (0-1-1)
Watch Racing UK On Sky432 Handicap Chase winner (Do It For Dalkey): 94 (0-0-2)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Welsh Grand National, finishing 5127
2 of 10 winners ran in the Classic Chase, finishing 27
2 of 10 winners ran in the Cumberland Handicap Chase, finishing 61
7 of 10 winners had previously finished in first 2 in one of Welsh, Scottish, Summer or Scottish Borders Nationals (2 exceptions were novice chasers and the other won the Grand Sefton on previous start)
Trainers
Lucinda Russell (2-0-3) has won the last 2 renewals with Silver By Nature.
The Pipe yard (1-4-14), Paul Nicholls (1-2-11) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-11) have all been responsible for 1 winner in the past 10 years.
Venetia Williams (0-3-9) and Richard Lee (0-2-2) have both saddled multiple placed finishers since 2001.
None of the six Irish-trained runners (0-0-6) have made the frame.
Price
9 of 10 winners (last 9) were priced between 7/1 and 18/1
Favourites (1-3-12) have a poor record having gained just one win in the past 10 renewals, giving a level stakes loss of 6.50.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 7 to 9
· Top weight does well
· Officially rated 143 to 149
· Won or placed last time out
· Posted an MR of 145 or higher last time
· Posted career high MR at left-handed track
· Won over 2M 7F or further
· Run in 11 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 1)
· Course winner (or having first run here)
· Finished in first 2 in Scottish, Welsh, Summer or Scottish Borders National
· Finished in first 5 in Welsh National this season
· Won a class 2 or better chase worth 17K+
Saturday Morning -- It all revolves around the running of Le Beau Bai - Rain lashing down at Haydock and its gonna be heavy ground by this afternoon - heavy here means just that and your gonna need a slow ole stayer to get your bet home... The one that fullfills all that requirement and is at the bottom of the weights is Sona Sasta for Pipe - carried 11-00 when beaten by Le Beau Bai by 2.5l at Chepstow when the mud was flying and today has got in 7lbs lower - has posted his best MR over a left handed track went better than his finishing position suggested against Hey Big Spender last time getting quite badly chopped at the bend coming into the straight...Is out of the handicap by 4lbs but O'ffarell is a very decent 3lbs claimer and this one is marked up at 14/1 at time of writing -
Fredo ran an absolute stonking good race behind Hey Big Spender is only a pound out of the handicap and loves Haydock has only got 2pounds more for that run and will be staying on when others cry enough
Sona Sasta and Fredo - these two will do for me at big prices
Bob
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