The Racing Plus Chase (formerly the Racing Post Chase) takes place at Kempton today Saturday, the 25th February. In the past decade some very significant trends have emerged that should help pinpoint this year’s winner.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-2-8
7yo: 2-4-23
8yo: 5-6-37
9yo: 1-4-28
10yo: 1-4-29
11yo: 0-1-15
12yo+: 1-2-4
Horses aged 6 to 8 have a combined record of 7-12-68
Horses aged 9 or older have a combined record of 3-11-76
8yos have the best record winning 5 of last 10, including 4 of the last 5.
All 3 winners aged older than 8 had previously won a graded chase.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-12 or more: 8-15-64
Horses carrying 10-11 or lower: 2-8-80
8 of 10 winners carried 10-12+ and so are heavily favoured.
Top Weight: P7P11231043 (3-3-11) have gained 3 wins and 3 places from their 11 runners in the past 10 years.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 141 or higher: 9-11-65
Horses rated 142 or lower: 1-12-79
The last 9 winners were officially rated 141 or higher.
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners won last time out
8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR of last year on last outing
7 of 10 winners had run in past 30 days
9 of 10 winners had run in 2 to 4 chases since August
6 of 10 winners were course winners (other 4 were having first run here)
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 5F+
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (2 exceptions having first try at 3M or further)
7 of 10 winners (last 5) had run in 7 or fewer handicaps chases
10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 3 handicap chases
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won at class 2 or better
7 of 10 winners had won or placed in a listed or graded chase
Other Races
Highest placed finisher from last year's race: 7220326 (0-4-7)
Betfair Graduation Chase winner (Sarando): 4 (0-1-1)
Aintree Bowl winner (Nacarat): 4 (0-0-1)
William Hill - Home of Betting H'cap Chase winner (Fuity O'Rooney): 6450 (0-0-4)
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 4) ran in Masters Handicap Chase last time, finishing 17
2 of 10 winners ran in the Welsh National, finishing 66
2 of 10 winners ran in Atlantic Spinal research Gold Cup, finishing F2
Racing Tactics
8 of 10 winners led or chased leaders
Trainers
Philip Hobbs (3-3-12) has won the race three times in the past 10 years and 6 of his 12 runners have made the frame.
Paul Nicholls (1-4-11) has seen 5 of his 11 runners make the frame while Tom George (1-2-4) saddled Nacarat to win it in 2009 and finish 2nd & 3rd in past 2 runnings.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-6) and Nicky Henderson (1-0-8) are the other two trainers with entries that have won the race in the past decade.
Colin Tizzard (0-2-2) saddled 2 of the 4 placed finishers last year and Venetia Williams (0-2-10) has also filled a couple of places since 2002.
Price
10 of 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 11/1
Clearly this is a race where you should be sticking with the market principals with no winner going off bigger than 11/1 in the past decade and 8 of 10 winners coming from the first 4 in the betting.
Horses priced 11/1 or below: 10-11-62 (+17.50)
Horses priced 12/1 or higher: 0-12-82 (-82.00)
Favourites (2-2-11) have gained just 2 wins in the past decade, giving a level stakes loss of 2.00.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 6 to 8
· Carrying 10-12+ (top weight does well)
· Officially rated 141 or higher
· Won and posted their highest RPR last time out
· Run in 2 to 5 chases this season
· Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases, winning 1 to 3
· Won a class 2 race or higher
· Won or placed in a listed or graded chase
· Won over 3M+ (or having first try over 3M+)
· Tends to race prominently
· Course winner (or having first course start)
· Trained by Philip Hobbs, Paul Nicholls or Colin Tizzard
· Priced 11/1 or below
2 comments:
This is a yummy race for punting and the stats really do the work - Deep Purple is going to cheltenham and is already attracting a lot of money for an 11 year old is an absolute for fresh running animal
Feindish Flame does put in some iffy jumps but a blazing front runner who if he attracts any money will be a big player - will be taken on by Nacarat for the pace and that means his ability to get this distance is going to be blunted and is a good BTL as his price will shrink during the race he is a hold your breath animal and wont win till he has jumped the last thats for sure but travels well and if allowed to get an uncontested lead will be one of the more exciting bets you make
You Know I love CONSIGLIERE and think he is better with give going right handed in smaller fields - put up a magnificent effort in a big field last time beaten by pearlysteps into third - the run of Pearlysteps last week was disaapointing to say the least and that Haydock race must have taken it out of him and this may be a yard or so too far for him
Timeform View: Not the strongest renewal and a chance is taken on Michel Le Bon, who probably did as well as could realistically be expected given his inexperience in the Hennessy last time. This should be less daunting and he may yet reward the faith of his powerful connections. Nacarat would be a live danger if bouncing back, with Hector's Choice and Planet of Sound also respected.
Post a Comment