Punchestown Sunday 050212 oh dear Tied Cottage Chase

The Boylesports.com Tied Cottage Chase, takes place at Punchestown on Sunday 5th February,at 2.55  is a 2 mile grade 2 Chase for 5 year olds and upwards. This race was first run in 1999 as a novice chase but was made into its present incarnation in 2003. It was won twice by Moscow Flyer, who went on to win the Queen Mother Champion Chase on his next start on both occasions and it has also been the prep race for the past 2 Queen Mother winners, Big Zeb and Sizing Europe, who are both entered again this year. Punchestown has the frost covers down and are hopeful of racing as its drizzling rain there today BUT we are down to three runners so the trend don't tell us much 

Recent/Past Form

5 of 9 winners won last time out

7 of 9 runners had run in the past 35 days (2 exceptions ran in Tingle Creek last time)

7 of 9 winners posted their highest RPR in one of their last two completed chase starts

9 of 9 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season

9 of 9 winners had run in 9 to 22 chases

8 of 9 winners were 2nd, 3rd or 4th season chasers

7 of 9 winners had won a grade 1 (two exceptions had finished 2nd in a grade 1 or 2)

Other Races

Fortria Chase winner (Big Zeb): 111212 (4-2-6)

PP Dial A Bet Chase winner (Big Zeb):11F22 (2-2-5)

Punchestown Champion Chase winner (Big Zeb): 1F1 (2-0-3)

Tingle Creek Chase winner (Sizing Europe): 1 (1-0-1)

Queen Mother Champion Chase winner (Sizing Europe): F2 (0-1-2)

Trainers

Arthur Moore (1-1-5) has gained a win and a place from his 5 runners since 2003. He also trained the winner of the race in 2000 & 2001 when the race was run as a novice chase.

Colm Murphy (1-1-4) and Willie Mullins (1-1-5) trained Big Zeb and Golden Silver to fill the first 2 spots (in reverse order) in last 2 years.

Henry De Bromhead (0-0-2) saddled 2 unplaced runners in 2011, including Sizing Europe to finish 3rd. He also saw both his runners finish out of the frame when this was a novice chase.

Price

8 of 9 winners were priced 7/2 or below

8 of 9 winners came from first 3 in the betting and the only exception was in 2007 when the favourite was brought down.

Favourites (4-2-9) have won 4 of last 9 runnings, though show a level stakes loss of 2.73.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 8 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Has last run in the past 35 days (ideally winning)

·         Posted highest RPR in last 2 chase starts

·         Run 2 to 5 times this season

·         Run in 9 to 22 chases

·         Won a grade 1 chase

·         First 3 in the Fortria, Normans Grove and/or PP Dial-A-Bet Chase

·         Ran in last season’s Queen Mother and/or Punchestown Champion Chase

Pity its cut up so much - 

 Bob