Looking to scan the Betfair Hdle Saturday 11th 3.50 Newbury

BETFAIR HURDLE (HANDICAP) (GRADE 3) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 Good To Soft 2m110y Number of runners: 50
(Formerly the Totesport Trophy) is one of the major handicap hurdles on the British national hunt calendar and takes place at Newbury on Saturday 11th February. This race used to be called the Schweppes in the days of my youth and there were very few occasions that I missed it.
One of the fiercest betting races in the calendar where it pays to look at the stats but as important the gambles! Is generally won by a less exposed hurdler and the past 2 winners were both novices. The race has been abandoned twice in past 6 years but hopefully the race goes ahead this year and we get to see Zarkandar return to action. (Ruby Walsh Jockeying off Daryl Jacobs--- um?) The chances of racing are judged at 45% against the meeting taking place but that’s no reason not to look at this early stage
(2000-2011):
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-0-1
5yo: 4-14-56
6yo: 3-7-59
7yo: 2-3-49
8yo: 0-2-19
9yo: 1-1-19
10yo+: 0-3-9
5 to 7 year olds have taken 9 of the last 10 (from just over 77% of total runners) with the one exception being when Geos won the race for a second time as a 9yo.The last 5 winners have all been aged 5 or 6.


Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 3-15-88
Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 7-15-124
6 of the last 7 winners (including the last 4) carried 10-9 or less to victory.
All 3 horses to carry 10-10+ to victory in this race had finished 1st or 2nd in either the Boylesports.com H’cap Hurdle (formerly the Pierse/MCR) on previous start or in this race the previous year. – This is a key stat. Last year the race was postponed and cut up badly from 23 to 15 runners
Runners from last year include
Salden licht – making ground to join the leaders when badly hampered and brought down (9/1)
Soldatino was a real market mover proved solid here. He had his chance and posted an improved effort to emerge best of Nicky Henderson´s three runners, but did rather flatten out late on. Finished 5th 6/1
Get Me Out Of Here was 15lb higher than when scoring last year had run poorly in his two runs back this term. He too was well backed ante-post.for the original race date But as the ground went against him turning to soft he drifted right out before the off.


Official Ratings
Horses rated 145 or more: 1-4-31
Horses rated 131 to 144: 7-21-138
Horses rated 130 or lower: 2-5-43
Horses officially rated 131 to 144 have won 7 of the last 10 from approximately 65% of the runners, so no strong trend here.


Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (5 won)
9 of 10 winners posted their highest Master Rating in 1 of their last 2 hurdles starts (exception was Geos when winning race for second time)
8 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or better handicap hurdle last time (2 exceptions were novice hurdlers that had run just 3 times)
10 of 10 winners had run no more than 6 times since August
9 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap hurdles
9 of 10 winners had run in 15 or fewer hurdles (exception was Geos' second win in this)
8 of 10 winners were first or second season hurdlers (2 exceptions Geos and Copeland had previously finished 1st and 2nd in the race)
7 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a hurdles race worth 16K+ (3 exceptions had all run in just 3 hurdles races and won last time out)
10 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race with 11+ runners Key Stat


Other Races
Bavaria Imported Premium Lager H'cap Hurdle winner (Ubi Ace): 2102 (1-2-4) today quoted at 25/1  gets in here off a decent mark for a Newbury animal who can handle soft ground is a progressive hurdler and had gone up 24lb since recording the first of his three hurdles victories in March last year.  Via Galilei  today quoted at 33/1 ran Ubi Ace to a head  is above his highest winning mark but has been running really well recently in strong handicaps and went really close to gaining reward for his good form. The form of both of these can be measured by Ubi Ace run last time at newbury in the listed event He travelled well into contention off this mark against Celestial Halo on soft but was unable to close down the principals in the latter stages. This was still a creditable effort. For £50,000 race put these two in with a great shout 
Sportingbet Conditional Jockeys' H’cap Hurdle winner (Empire Levant): 1 (1-0-1) quoted at 14/1  seriously good Newbury horse who won a minor race over 2m1f g/soft and came out quickly within 6 days to be beaten by Rock on Ruby in a listed event last time has been hiked up from 128 to 140 as a result though – Daryl Jacobs will bust a gut to get this one home ahead of Zarkandar who was his original ride but now jocked off by Ruby!
Boylesports.com H'cap Hurdle winner (Citizenship): 71 (1-0-2)
Anniversary 4yo Hurdle winner (Zarkandar) quoted at 3/1 : 703 (0-1-3) – what can you say – its a highly progressive animal carrying 11-01 he has mark around 154 and gets in this race first handicap at 151and Ruby Walsh has claimed it over Daryl Jacobs its regular pilot I think that could win the Champion Hurdle it is a worthy favourite and will have to be backed to save your stakes not run for 336 days – is that a worry? the results say yes and the others who performed well in that race did not so well in this and they looked formidable as well! 
Triumph Hurdle winner (Zarkandar): 05 (0-0-2)
The Ladbroke winner (Raya Star): P0P (0-0-3)
32Red Handicap Hurdle winner (Ciceron): 807 (0-0-3)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Bavaria Imported Premium Lager H'cap Hurdle, finishing 3173 (  Via Galilei ran Ubi Ace to a head  is above his highest winning mark but has been running really well recently in strong handicaps and went really close to gaining reward for his good form.
3 of 10 winners ran in Boylesports.com H'cap Hurdle last time, finishing 251
3 of 10 winners ran in Stellar Football End of Transfer Window H'cap Hurdle last time, finishing 119


Trainers
Nicky Henderson (3-4-29) has won 3 of the past 10 runnings, though his last winner was in 2004 and his 15 runners since then have produced 0 wins and just 2 places.
Gary Moore (2-1-8) trained the winner in 2 of the last 3 years he’s been represented.
Jessica Harrington (1-0-1) and Jonjo O’Neill (1-0-7) are the only other 2 trainers with entries to have won it since 2000.
Philip Hobbs (0-7-16) hasn’t won any of the last 10 runnings but has seen 10 of his 16 runners finishing in the top 6, 7 getting placed.
David Pipe (0-3-8) and Alan King (0-2-7) accounted for the 3 of the first 4 home in 2010 and 2 of the first 4 home last year.
Irish trained runners (2-2-28) have provided 2 of last 10 winners from approximately 13% of total runners. Both Irish winners ran in Boylesports.com H’cap Hurdle on previous start.


Price
No strong trend on prices though 5 of the last 7 winners went off at 12/1 or bigger including a 50/1 winner in 2007.
Favourites (2-4-11) have won 2 of the last 10 & show a level return to a unit stake.


Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 5 to 7
• Carrying 10-9 or less (or previously finished in first 2 in this or Boylesport.com H’dl)
• Finished in first 3 last time in a class 2 or better hurdle (or a novice hurdler)
• First or second season hurdler
• Run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles (won no more than 2)
• Won or placed in a big h'cap hurdle this season (or run in 3 or fewer hurdles races)
• Won a hurdle with 11+ runners in it
• Finished in first 5 in Boylesports.com or Stellar Football H’cap Hurdle last time
• Finished in first 3 in Bavaria Imported Premium Lager H'cap Hurdle
• Trained by Nicky Henderson Gary Moore or Philip Hobbs


Others that attract at this early stage
Third Intention quoted at 14/1 down from 25/1  appeals on its course form and run last time at Taunton 25/1 into 14/1seventh in last season´s Triumph and beaten 8l off this mark in the Greatwood , appreciated the drop in grade to class 2 handicap and came strong in the latter stages of the race, but attempting to concede 21lb to the winner proved too much. (Is well weighted for this class 1)
Looking for a horse like Ozare  quoted at 40/1 trained by Gary Moore – runs from out of the handicap is a plus for this animal Went so well at ascot last time and has winning form at Newbury


 well fingers crossed that Newbury goes ahead  will be posting my thoughts when the day comes


 Good Luck 


 Bob