The StanJames.com International Hurdle (formerly the Bula) is a grade 2 hurdle run over 2M 1F Cheltenham on Saturday, 11th December. It is one of the most valuable hurdles races run in Europe.
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
The last 6 winners have been aged 4 to 7.
Weight
6 of the last 9 winners carried 11-4. The last 2 winners to carry 11-8 were trained in Ireland.
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 runners had finished in first 3 in a graded hdle last time
10 of 10 winners had previously run in at least 6 hurdles races
10 of 10 winners were officially rated 148+
8 of 10 winners had won a graded or listed hurdle (both exceptions were placed in a graded hurdle on their last start)
8 of 10 winners (last 7) had run in the last 30 days
7 of 10 winners were course and distance winners (1 exception had yet to run at the track, another had finished runner-up in the Greatwood Hurdle and the other was runner-up in the Champion Hurdle)
Other Races
Greatwood Hurdle winner (Menorah): 1111 (4-0-4)
Ascot Hurdle winner (Silviniaco Conti): 2 (0-0-1)
5 of 10 winners ran at the Aintree National meeting (2 Aintree Hurdle, 1 Anniversary, 1 Top Novice and 1 Silver Cross H'cap Hurdle)
Trainers
Philip Hobbs (2-0-4) has saddled 2 of the last 10 winners of this race.
Paul Nicholls (1-1-5) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-2) have also trained the winner in the past 10 running’s.
Price
7 of 10 winners were sent off 7/1 or shorter
The favourite (5-1-11) has won 5 of the last 8 and shows a level stakes profit of 0.95 since 1999.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 4 to 7
- Finished in the first 3 in a grade hurdle in the past 30 days
- Carrying 11-4
- Won a listed or graded hurdle
- Course and distance winner
- Greatwood Hurdle winner
- Trained by Philip Hobbs
- Price 7/1 or lower (favourite does well)
So you cannot see past Menorah for the trends – but how good is Cue Card ? – he was our pick to win the bumper here last year and has pinged his hdles this year – is he a freak ? has he enough experience with only 4 runs (all wins)
At these skinny prices am tempted to play the each way market and look for an animal with c/dist form on holding ground and that brings in Clerks Choice who has experience of 6 hdles winning 4 of them carries 11-04 he just did not handle the track at Haydock last time but actually put up a faster time that menorah at Cheltenham
Will also be watching for any money coming for the German bred Der Speiler under Geraghty he put up a very decent display at Punchestown 141010 and went into my notebook as a possible if it ever came over here any sort of similar display could get him into the frame for a big place
2 comments:
I really like Menorah here. Really lie the way he has battled on in the Greatwood and would side with him here over Cue Card.
I also like Menorah, the only problem I have with it is the jockey, he tends to ask an horse for a big jump when it's not needed and has lost a few races due to it, other than that i think it will take cue card today.
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