The Vote A.P. Gold Cup trends bobT

The Vote A.P. Gold Cup a grade 3 handicap chase, run over 2M 5F. Usually many horses that contested the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November run in this and 3 of the last 5 winners of this had made the frame in the Paddy Power Gold Cup before taking this.

The race was not run in 2001 and 2008. Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings (1998 to 2009):

Age 6 and 7 year olds have the best records. Between them they have won 8 of the last 10 renewals from approximately 35% of the total runners.

Horses aged 9+ have gained no wins and just 1 place from 45 runners since 1998. You have to go back to 1993 for the last 9yo winner and 1974 for the last winner aged over 9.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-13 or more: 6-12-74

Horses carrying 10-12 or lower: 4-12-60

Not a huge bias either way though in recent years higher weights have held the call with the last 3 winners all carrying 11-4 or more and only one placed finisher in the past 3 years carried less than 10-11.

Record of top weight: 2494P4P5PR9 (0-1-11)

4 of the 5 runners to carry a penalty have been placed (0-4-5)

Official Ratings

No huge bias on official ratings though the last 3 winners have been rated 149, 150 and 151, which signals that maybe a higher rated runners should be favoured.

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners had run in 4 or less handicap chases

9 of 10 winners gained RPR of 144+ last time out

9 of 10 finished in the first 3 last time out

9 of 10 winners had won or placed in a graded chase (exception was having first run in a graded chase but had won a class 2)

9 of 10 winners had run in 6 to 9 chases prior to running in this

8 of 10 winners ran in past 30 days

8 of 10 winners were 2nd season chasers (both exceptions were 3rd season chasers)

5 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (3 others were placed here)

Other Races

Previous year's winner (Poquelin): 50 (0-0-2)

Paddy Power Gold Cup winner (Little Josh): 4P1 (1-0-3) (Mad Max finished 4th)

Grand Annual Handicap Chase winner (Pigeon Island): 9 (0-0-1)

Byrne Group Plate winner (Great Endeavour): 7957 (0-0-4)

7 of 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival (2 Grand Annual, 2 Arkle, 1 RSA, 1 Jewson, 1 Coral Cup and (1 Byrne Group Plate Great Endeavour)

3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) ran in Paddy Power Gold Cup, finishing 312

2 of 10 winners ran in the Wayward Lad Novice Chase, finishing 1F

2 of 2 Irish-trained winners ran in Bord Na Mona Nov Chase, finishing RU

2 of 2 Irish-trained winners ran in a graded novice chase at Punchestown Festival, finishing 26

Trainers

Jonjo O’Neill (2-0-6), Nicky Henderson (2-0-8) have each won the race twice since 1998

Paul Nicholls (1-8-18) finally won the race last year with Poquelin after saddling a placed finisher in the previous 5 renewals.

Nicky Richards (0-3-4) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-3-9) have each trained multiple placed runners in the past 10 runnings.

Irish trained horses (2-2-13) have gained 2 wins and 2 places from 13 runners. Both were 8yo second season chasers that had run in a graded novice chase at the Punchestown Festival.

Price

8 of 10 winners were priced between 7/2 and 8/1

Favourites (1-2-10) don’t have a great record in this race. Last year, Poquelin became the first winning favourite in the past decade.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• Aged 6 or 7
• Finished in the first 3 last time and posted an RPR of 144+
• Ran in the last 30 days
• Carrying 10-11+
• Run 6 to 9 times over fences
• Run in 4 or less handicap chases
• 2nd season chaser
• Won or placed in a grade chase
• Finished in first 3 in Paddy Power Gold Cup
• Trained by J O’Neill, N Henderson, P Nicholls or N Richards
• Priced between 4/1 to 8/1

No Great conviction this evening and this part could change in the morning ! Great Endevour won the Bryne cup well and has only 10-04 which does not fit the trends There are only three horses that fit the weight trends they are Little Josh   Mad Max and

Pyscho Irish trained who gets in here well of 11-01 handles the track well and came close to winning the Vincent Obrien hdles  Trainer Martin is a great raider and the horse is bred from Dr Massini he has booked Russell for the ride and is very tempting