The Keith Prowse Hospitality Tingle Creek Chase HAS BEEN TRANSFERRED FROM SANDOWN A grade 1 chase run over 2 miles which has been won by some of the best chasers of the past decade including Master Minded, Flagship Uberalles, Moscow Flyer and Kauto Star. Twist Magic, who has won the race in 2007 and last year, will be looking to win it for a third time.
Now that it’s running at Cheltenham you have to mainly ignore the trends as going from a fast right handed level track to a left hand undulating track. But we can take a look at where the characteristics are similar –
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses aged 5 to 7: 7-8-31
Horses aged 8+: 3-3-36
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had won a chase by 9 lengths or more
9 of 10 winners had previously won a Grade 1 chase (Kauto Star was the exception, he had not previously run in a Grade 1)
8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out (both exceptions were Flagship Uberalles in 2000 and 2001) That’s a big stat as only three today qualify(Master Minded – Gauvain – Im So Lucky)
6 of 10 winners had previously run that season Im So Lucky and Petit Robin havent
7 of 10 winners had run in at least 10 chases (3 exceptions trained by Nicholls) but Course form today may count more
Other Races
Highest finisher in Queen Mother Cheltenham (Kalahari King): 541236213 (2-2-9)
Game Spirit Chase winner Newbury (Master Minded): 121 (2-1-3)
Celebration Chase Sandown winner (I'm So Lucky): 21641 (2-1-5)
Sinbad Testimonial 2010/2011 Chase winner Cheltenham (Gauvain): 3 (0-0-1)
Trainers
Paul Nicholls (6-3-20) has won the last 5 running’s and but for Moscow Flyer would have trained the last 8 winners.
It seems as if it takes an exceptional chaser to beat the Nicholls team in this race. The only two non-Nicholls winners in the last 10 years have been Moscow Flyer and Flagship Uberalles, both were winners of the Arkle & Queen Mother Champion Chase.
Henrietta Knight (0-2-2) saddled Edredon Bleu to finish runner-up in this twice in the past decade. She run the almost novice chaser Somersby who was second in the Arkle The only two horses that have beaten the Nichols team both won the Arkle! And was only beaten 3/4l by Sizing Europe and the form may stand up well
Price
10 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting
All 10 winners since 2000 went off 6/1 or shorter.
Favourites (5-4-11) have won 5 of the last 10 running’s of this and show a level stakes profit of 2.01.
Am not sure how much to take into account the age factor - this is more about trainer form for the Cheltenham track and despite his score here as a hurdler am not convinced of Master Minded chasing form around here over 2miles much better time figures on a flat stiff track - think he will be well under the price just because its Master Minded and Nichols - cannot lay it but cannot back it either--
so speed over 2miles Cheltenham and an improving profile brings in Gauvain 10 runs won its last three (last 2 were 2miles at Cheltenham g/soft) has won a class 1 chase and run 10 times is German bred and their score is very high at this track outside of the festival. Has Williams and Jacobs who are in scorching form at the moment
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