The Leopardstown Golf Centre December Festival Hurdle is the highlight of what is now the third day of the Leopardstown Christmas Festival, on Wednesday 29th December. A grade 1 hurdle, run over 2 miles, it attracts the top Irish hopes for the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle and has been won by the likes of Istabraq, Moscow Flyer, Brave Inca and Sublimity in the past 10 years.
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses aged 4 to 6 have a combined record of 4-5-35.
Horses aged 7+ have a combined record of 6-5-26 and have won 4 of last 5.
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on last completed hurdles start
10 of 10 winners had run no more than 3 hurdles runs that season
8 of 10 winners contested a grade 1 hurdle last time out
8 of 10 winners (last 5) had won a grade 1 hurdle
8 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 in a hurdle at Leopardstown before (2 exceptions were having first course start)
Other Races
Previous Year's winner (Solwhit): F412 (1-1-4)
Punchestown Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 1311 (3-0-4)
Morgiana Hurdle winner (Solwhit): 1512381 (3-0-7)
Irish Champion Hurdle winner (Solwhit): F14125 (2-1-6)
Red Mills Trial Hurdle winner (Luska Lad): 51 (1-0-2)
Hatton's Grace winner (Hurricane Fly): 441 (1-0-3)
6 of 10 winners ran in the Morgiana, finishing 123131
5 of 10 winners ran in Punchestown Champion Hurdle, finishing F1221
4 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Champion Hurdle, finishing 1221
4 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Hurdle, finishing FU11
4 of 10 winners ran in the Champion Hurdle, finishing 9314
4 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's race, finishing FF14
3 of 10 winners (last 3) ran in Fighting Fifth last time, finishing 223
3 of 10 winners ran in the Hatton’s Grace last time, finishing 231
Trainers
Charles Byrnes (1-0-1) saddled Solwhit to win the race last year.
Price
8 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting
Only one winner went off bigger than 7/1 and that was Golden Cross, who won the race in 2003 at massive odds of 66/1.
The favourite (3-1-10) has a poor record in this race having won only 3 of the last 10 renewals and showing a level stakes loss of 4.60.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Finished in the first 3 in a grade 1 last time out
- Ran no more than 3 times this season
- Won a grade 1 hurdle
- Previously finished 1st or 2nd over the course and distance
- Finished in first 3 in Fighting Fifth/Hatton’s Grace Hurdle last time
- Finished in first 3 in Morgiana, Irish or Punchestown Champ Hurdle
- From the first 3 in the betting
Slight Preference for Hurricane Fly who comprehensibly beat home Solwhit (who was race fit last time) and Dont discount the outsider Thousand Stars who was only 2l behind Solwhit when they met in April when Hurricane Fly won - will be inclined to bet forecast top two with this one who has been off for 250 days and hence the price but Katie Walsh has booted home some big price winners !
No comments:
Post a Comment