The Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase, which takes place at Leopardstown on the 29th December, became a grade 1 event in 2007 and run over 2M 1F it will attract some of the main Irish hopefuls for the 2011 Queen Mother Champion Chase.
Below we take a look at the trends for the last 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-0-2
7yo: 4-4-19
8yo: 3-2-17
9yo: 2-2-10
10yo+: 0-1-11
No very strong age trends though all 10 winners were aged 6 to 9 but they have represented the bulk of the runners.
Gender
Both mares (0-0-2) to run in the race in the past decade finished last, well-behind the nearest finisher.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on last completed start (7 won)
9 of 10 winners were course winners (exception Big Zeb had finished 2nd in a grade 1 chase in only previous completed course start)
10 of 10 winners had run no more than 3 times that season
8 of 10 winners had run in the past 30 days
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had previously run in 6 to 15 chases
9 of 10 winners (last 9) were second or third season chasers
8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase (2 exceptions won grade 2)
7 of 10 winners won a chase at a previous Leopardstown Festival
Other Races
Previous Year's Winner (Golden Silver): 4213324 (1-2-7)
Ryanair Novice Chase winner (Captain Cee Bee): 211 (2-1-3)
Fortria Chase winner (Big Zeb): P1312 (2-1-5)
Hilly Way Chase winner (Golden Silver): 21431 (2-0-5)
Tied Cottage Chase winner (Big Zeb): 124227 (1-2-6)
Poplar Square Chase winner (Captain Cee Bee): 21432 (1-1-5)
Punchestown Champion Chase (Golden Silver) 1 (1-0-1)
Queen Mother Champion Chase winner (Big Zeb): 14 (1-0-2)
Normans Grove Chase winner (Scotsirish): 5327 (0-1-4)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Hilly Way Chase last time, finishing 312
3 of 10 winners ran in the John Durkan last time, finishing 142
4 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Arkle, finishing F2P1
3 of 10 winners ran in Bord Na Mona Novice Chase, finishing 111
3 of 10 winners ran in the Fortria, finishing 131
3 of 10 winners ran in the Ladbrokes.com Chase, finishing 315
3 of 10 winners ran in the Newlands Chase, finishing 422
3 of 10 winners ran in the Arkle, finishing 1U0
3 of 10 winners ran in the Powers Gold Cup, finishing 427
Trainers
Colm Murphy (1-0-1) won the race with Big Zeb in 2008 and Willie Mullins (1-0-4) won it last year with Golden Silver, and both horses are entered again this year.
Price
10 of 10 winners went off at 8/1 or shorter
Not a race to be looking for an outsider with all 10 winners coming from the first 4 in the betting.
Favourites (4-3-11) have won 4 of the last 10 runnings and showing a level stakes loss of 3.77.
Conclusion:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 to 9
- Finished in the first 3 last time out in last 30 days
- Had run no more than 3 times this season
- Second or third season chaser
- Won a chase at a previous Leopardstown Christmas Festival
- Won a Grade 1 chase
- Ran in the Irish Arkle, Powers Gold Cup and/or Fortria Chase
- Ran in the John Durkan or Hilly Way Chase last time
- Priced 8/1 or shorter
my Money is on Golden Silver who needs this heavy ground to show its best beat home forpaddyplasterer in a head bobber around here and is more race fit than the rest
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