poor Turn out for the race really - No horse aged above 8 has ever won this race.7 of 10 winners had run in a grade 1 novice hurdle at previous Cheltenham or Punchestown Festivals
I love the chances of the novice Shot from The Hip under McCoy today looks to be on a huge upwards curve and largly ignored by the punters today against the more hardened runners was much more assured last run time over fences at fairyhouse on this ground , giving a display rather more in keeping with his status as a Grade 1 novice hurdle winner last season.He picked up well from the last, with his race-fitness relative to the runner-up, possibly an important factor in the closing stages. With this experience under his belt the German-bred gelding should be capable of holding his own in this good company.
The Deloitti Hurdle 2.10
Geldings (8-11-65) have won 8 of the last 10 however proportionally mares (2-0-6) have a better record, gaining 2 wins from just 8.5% of the total runners. Burn and Turn being the only mare today! I expect a big race from her under Power with a good weight advantage today
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Won last time out, posting their highest RPR
- Run in 2 to 4 hurdles this season & won at least 50%
- Won a hurdles race at Punchestown, Navan or Leopardstown
- Won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
- Finished in first 2 in Royal Bond, Navan and/or Future Champions Nov’ Hurdle
- Won a bumper
- Course winner or having first run here
- Mares do well from few representatives
- Trained by Noel Meade
- Priced 7/1 or below
My Money will be On Cash and Go for the win in this to confirm he is ready for the Supreme Novice hdle at Cheltenham
The Spring Juvenile Hurdle the opening race at 1.05
bit of a nightmare to unscramble reallyThis race has thrown some surprises in recent years with 3 of the last 10 winners going off 11/1 or bigger but there is no strong trend on prices.
Favourites (3-2-10) have a poor record having gained just 3 wins in the last 10 years (including 3 beaten at odds on), giving a level stakes loss of 3.59.
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Flat bred, by a group-winning stallion
· Fillies do well
· Has run since Christmas
· Finished in the first 3 last time
· Run in 1 to 3 hurdles this season
· Won over hurdles or placed on only hurdles start
· Run on the flat and officially rated 80 or higher
· Finished in first 2 in Visit Punchestown.com or Festival Hospitality Juvenile Hurdle
· Trained by Willie Mullins or Oliver Brady
Asiad, has gone over after its win at Huntingdon g/soft his form figures for Saeed Bin Suroor were 2322, had cheekpieces tried for hurdling (he wore a visor on the Flat) and duly made a winning debut after travelling really well for the majority of the contest. A fine looker, there is no doubt he has the physical scope for improvement and can be a nice type if progressing.
Bob
4 comments:
I like Captain Conan in the Deloitte Hurdle, but its a close thing and I think That Captain Conan xould be the only one, that is a bit better class after his win against Colour Squadron.
What a race by 189/1 shot Beneficient, it looked so fit from its size athletic during the race when i observed, that i thought to myself after 1/4 of the race, that this will win. A shame that i overlooked this horse beforehand, but when you simply look at the horses in race, its really starnge that it goess of at these odds.
Little between this favourite and Il Fenomeno in the market when they met recently so it seems connections expected them to finish close up. Burn And Turn was close to Il Fenomeno on his hurdling debut and fancied. So ! What I'm getting at is the value in Il Fenomeno and Burn And Turn at double figure odds. The Racing Pist have the outsider at 20 he's 150 Betfair for value hunters.
jumped on at 20s was going like a train
Bob I really like your shot from the Hip selection, he finisihed 3 lenghts to Zaidpour now 150 rated hurdler and 8 lenghts to Oscar Wells now 165 rated hurdler confirmed by a really strong physical apperance and dominance in his Hurdle Win in Punchestown 3rd LTO. I think youve spotted some class at big odds. Wel spotted.
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