Weather looking Grim for February 2012

RACECOURSES are already laying down frost covers to try and fend off overnight temperatures that could get down as low as -10C in some isolated rural spots later this week.

Covers are already on at Sandown to counter the frost threat before their Betfred-sponsored card on Saturday.Clerk of the course Andrew Cooper said on Monday: "It's forecast to get very cold overnight from Wednesday onwards and we have covered the whole course this afternoon. The daytime temperatures are expected to be pretty woeful as well so we will have to take a view later in the week."

The forecast has prompted the BHA to consider staging replacement fixtures at the weekend, although there will be no decision until Wednesday on the issue.

Prospects are looking grim for Thursday's meeting at Towcester with an overnight low of -5C forecast. Clerk of the course Robert Bellamy said: "The forecast as it stands would be of great concern. We are not in a position to cover the whole of the track so we will have to see if it gets as cold as they say."BHA spokesman John Maxse said: "We are hopeful for Wednesday's meetings but for Thursday and Friday we are considering moving our twilight all-weather meetings to the afternoon. Beyond that it will be 24 or 48 hours until we make a decision on any replacement fixtures."

And for Wincanton the same day, clerk of the course Barry Johnson has instructed his team to lay fleece covers to all take-offs, landings and bypass areas of the track.

He said: "Sadly we're forecast a bitterly cold few days. We've covered what we can and I expect it could go to the wire."

Chepstow, who are scheduled to race on Friday, have borrowed frost protection from Cheltenham.

In Ireland, Fairyhouse was described as unraceable on Monday due to waterlogging but racecourse manager Peter Roe said: "The rain is supposed to clear tomorrow and Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be very cold. A couple of dry days should see us right for Saturday."Clerk of the course Keith Otteson, said: "We have the heavy duty covers down on the whole of the chase and hurdle tracks. It's forecast to get progressively colder and could be -5C overnight into Friday. My only worry would be if the daytime temperatures stay low and not allow any frost to come out."

Punchestown will decide on Tuesday morning whether they will use their frost covers in advance of Sunday's fixture, which features the Sizing Europe and Big Zeb clash in the Boylesports.com Tied Cottage Chase.

Weekend eyecatchers!

Cheltenham Hurdles

12.55 JCB Hurdle Trial Class 1 Grade 2 2m1f
Winner Grumeti

Runde 8 00:00:22.15 00:03:55.36
Runde 7 00:00:36.41 00:03:33.21
Runde 6 00:00:42.25 00:02:56.79
Runde 5 00:00:27.71 00:02:14.53
Runde 4 00:00:11.50 00:01:46.82
Runde 3 00:00:19.67 00:01:35.31
Runde 2 00:00:40.41 00:01:15.64
Runde 1 00:00:35.22 00:00:35.22

1stGRUMETI (GB) b. G, 2008 DP = 4-3-12-8-3 (30) DI = 0.76 CD = -0.10
2ndPEARL SWAN (FR) b. G, 2008 DP = 4-0-5-2-1 (12) DI = 1.18 CD = 0.33
4thTANGO DE JUILLEY (FR) b. G, 2008 DP = 5-1-15-0-1 (22) DI = 1.59 CD = 0.41


16.15 Hcp Hurdles Class 2 2m1f
Winner Module

Runde 8 00:00:22.71 00:03:53.88
Runde 7 00:00:36.43 00:03:31.17
Runde 6 00:00:43.47 00:02:54.74
Runde 5 00:00:28.10 00:02:11.27
Runde 4 00:00:11.51 00:01:43.17
Runde 3 00:00:19.16 00:01:31.65
Runde 2 00:00:39.54 00:01:12.49
Runde 1 00:00:32.95 00:00:32.95

1stMODULE G, 2007 DP = 4-1-14-5-2 (26) DI = 0.86 CD = 0.00


15.10 Neptune IM Novices Hurdles Class 1 Grade 2 2m4f
Winner Battonier

Runde 10 00:00:22.99 00:04:50.92
Runde 9 00:00:37.61 00:04:27.93
Runde 8 00:00:42.54 00:03:50.31
Runde 7 00:00:27.69 00:03:07.77
Runde 6 00:00:11.11 00:02:40.07
Runde 5 00:00:19.56 00:02:28.96
Runde 4 00:00:40.81 00:02:09.40
Runde 3 00:00:34.49 00:01:28.58
Runde 2 00:00:45.51 00:00:54.09
Runde 1 00:00:08.57 00:00:08.57


15.40 Cleeve Hurdle Class 1 Grade 2 3m
Winner Big Bucks

Runde 1200:00:21.07 00:05:46.86
Runde 1100:00:36.68 00:05:25.78
Runde 1000:00:43.97 00:04:49.10
Runde 9 00:00:26.44 00:04:05.12
Runde 8 00:00:10.91 00:03:38.68
Runde 7 00:00:18.72 00:03:27.76
Runde 6 00:00:40.51 00:03:09.03
Runde 5 00:00:41.47 00:02:28.52
Runde 4 00:00:46.23 00:01:47.04
Runde 3 00:00:29.17 00:01:00.81
Runde 2 00:00:11.70 00:00:31.64
Runde 1 00:00:19.93 00:00:19.93

2nd DYNASTE (FR) gr. G, 2006 DP = 1-1-9-3-0 (14) DI = 0.87 CD = 0.00
3rd MOURAD (IRE) ch. G, 2005 DP = 4-3-6-4-1 (18) DI = 1.25 CD = 0.28
5th ACROSS THE BAY (IRE) b. G, 2004 DP = 0-1-9-2-2 (14) DI = 0.65 CD = -0.36

If you look at the sectionals of the Cleeve Hurdle quite impressive stuff of class and so all horses must be considered next time out against weaker opposition.Dynaste will win a race soon I think, this horse puts heavy front running pressure on its rivals and can run them down. I feel theres is def Win in this horse soon. Interesting to see what will happen with Mourad in the future, as this 7 year old looked very strong on the runin to me and lost maybe 4 lenghts against Dynaste being not fluent on the last,if switched slightly againste weaker opposition has all the odds, as this race is strong form. Across The Bay is just 140 rated and despite looking racing to its full capacity against this class should be considered, when racing next time out in Class2 or Class 3, as this race here was a strong form.
Module is only 5 year old and this was a top class performance, has some problems Inrunning but I highly rate his visual impression on the runin, as they went of very very fast early and from the visual impression Module looked quite strong late. This was only a class 2 race, so when staying in this class I would def bet next time out and I would also consider a step up in class next time out bet.
In the 12.55 race all first three finishers have to be considered, they are all only 4 year olds and clocked really good class 1 sectionals, quickening extremely well 3/4 to finish.Grumeti, Pearl Swan,Hollow Tree, Tango De Juilley all have shouts next time out, Tango De Juilley could be intresting next time out as is only 127 OR and if entered into a Class 2 race could have place chances.

15.10 Neptunes IM Novices Hurdles

Its interesting to see, that this was the weakest hurdles race of the meeting despite being Class 1 Grade 2. Its a 2m4f, but the sectionals are weak. The optical impression of the winner Battonier, was that its a strong improver, but with the sectionals in hand I doubt now, that it such a huge improvement. He clearly looked the strongest of the field, but its a weak race and if that performance is enough to win a Cheltenham meeting event, I doubt it now, after the sectionals.

Monday 30th January 2012

The one that caught my eye big time was Battonier Cheltenham 3.10 (impressed me more than most according to the write ups I have read) – still green but watch the race he could be called the winner a way long way out swinging off the bridle and was always going to catch Broadbackbob – anything like this improvement will hold it well for the Festival – Wichita Lineman and Bobs Worth won this race before going onto the festival – they were no more impressive than this one on Saturday – and the fact that the in crowd were on Broadback and were not watching out in the country means they will allow him to go off at a big price.


Today's cards are poor fare and am interested in a few that can make it on the predicted ground 
 1.20 Ayr  - really like the chances of All for a Buzz in the 1.20  novice hurdle - bred from Alflora will relish the conditions for its first sticks race and - its not normal for me to have any sort of bet on a first timer - but this one looks built for it and anything it does today will make it a notebook animal.
The other punt for me is in the 3.15 at Plumpton Sapphire Rouge  back to 3miles the ground is the only worry for this one on a stiffish mark but that's discounted by a very very stylish young claimer in this conditional jockeys handicap.  I am not that concerned about the ground on its performance behind Round the Horn on heavy ground at Towcester off a mark of 100 -is off 110 today but that 8lbs claim gets it into the reckoning big time.


Let me know what caught your eye over the weekend 


 Bob 

Sunday bets!

Leop 15.30

Back Hurricane Fly 1.64 BSP

My only bet today with real stakes.

Reason: LTO perfromances against Menorah, Binocular, Thousand Stars, Oscar Whisky was superb and I wanna see this horse one day against Big Bucks. I cannot see any of the other horses reach this class and so the layoff is the only factor here to me. I will observe closely the paddock though and then decide my bet.

Leop 1.25

Back Blackstairmountain 3.55 BSP

Because the favourite drifted like that, im happy to jump on at these circumstances, as I had the feeling is the one horse, that has something in hand to improve and if getting a fats race in the soft conditions I trust Ruby Walsh to get this home. At the odds in the morning of 2.50 I wouldnt put a cent on it, but at 3.55 I think ist very good bet I will add to my daily selections. The Soft ground will allow, that it wont get outpaced, this is actually a positive i think and has Ruby on Board and looked the best stayer, as there are enough front runners in this I feel has again all chances.

Arkle Novice Chase leopardstown 290112 at 1.25

The Frank Ward Solicitors Arkle Novice Chase is part of the supporting card of Leopardstown’s Irish Champion Hurdle day on Sunday 29th January. A grade 1 chase for novices, run over 2M 1F, it will draw many of Ireland’s main hopes for the Arkle at Cheltenham in March. The runner-up in 2009, Forpadydeplasterer, went on to win the Arkle at Cheltenham while last year’s winner, Realt Dubh, was placed in the Arkle and the runner-up, Noble Prince, won the Jewson at Cheltenham.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 0-0-2

6yo: 1-1-9

7yo: 7-7-34

8yo: 2-2-15

9yo+: 0-1-7

7yos have won 7 of the last 10 from exactly 50% of the total runners.

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners won last time out (exception was 2nd in grade 1 Bord Na Mona)

10 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days

7 of 10 winners ran at Leopardstown or Punchestown last time out

10 of 10 winners had run in 1 to 5 chases that season

10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 3 chases

7 of 10 winners had won or placed in a graded race

5 of 10 winners had won at Leopardstown (one other was placed on both runs here and 3 others were having first course start)

Other races

Bord Na Mona Novice Chase winner (Blackstairmountain): F21131 (3-1-6)

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase winner (Flemenstar): 2 (0-1-1)

Johnny Lumley Lifetime Achievement Beginners Chase winner (Sir Des Champs): 2 (0-1-1)

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase winner (Bog Warrior): 25 (0-1-2)

5 of 10 winners ran in the Bord Na Mona Novice Chase, finishing 2F111

5 of 10 winners won a chase over 2 miles at Punchestown

3 of 10 winners ran in the Drinmore Novice Chase, finishing 242

2 of 10 winners ran in the Craddockstown Novice Chase, finishing 51

Trainers

Willie Mullins (3-1-12) has won 3 of the last 10 runnings of the race, saddled the winner in 09, the runner-up in 2010 and his sole representative last year had hit the front when falling 2 out.

Noel Meade (1-0-4) trained Realt Dubh to win this last year.

Price

10 of 10 winners were priced 10/1 or shorter

No real trend on prices with all winners coming from the first 4 or 5 in the betting.

Favourites (4-3-10) have a fair record, winning 4 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 0.68.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 7

·         Won last time out

·         Ran in the last 40 days

·         Had last run at Punchestown or Leopardstown

·         Previous course winner (or having first run here)

·         Finished in the first 2 in the Bord Na Mona Novice Chase

·         Won a 2M chase at Punchestown

·         Run in 1 to 5 chases this season (winning at least once)

·         Trained by Willie Mullins

David Pipe has not taken Notus De la Tour over for the boat ride it knows how to beat Blackstairmountain on their last  meeting and am looking no further than a win for pipe and powers in this one will go off in front but will be able to slow them down to get air into its lungs for the final run in  

Irish Champion Hurdle 290112 Leopardstown 2.30

The BHP Insurance Irish Champion Hurdle  Leopardstown  2.30 on Sunday 29th January. The race has been won by some of the best Irish hurdlers of recent times including Brave Inca, Hardy Eustace, Istabraq and last year, Hurricane Fly, who could make his seasonal reappearance in this. The key form race is the Leopardstown Festival Hurdle from which 5 of the last 10 winners have come.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 0-0-1

5yo: 0-1-7

6yo: 5-3-14

7yo: 1-4-17

8yo: 1-3-15

9yo: 1-1-5

10yo+: 2-2-10

6yos have the best record having won 5 of the last 10 renewals and were not represented in 3 of the other 5 runnings.

4 of 4 winners 8+ had previously won the Champion Hurdle or Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out

9 of 10 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season (exception making seasonal debut)

8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle (1 exception was 2nd in a grade 1 while other won the grade 3 Greatwood handicap hurdle and was having his first run at grade 1 level)

8 of 10 winners had their last run in December (5 ran in Festival Hurdle here)

8 of 10 winners had previously won at Leopardstown (1 exception was having his first course start while other was placed on both previous runs here)

Other Races

Previous year's winner (Hurricane Fly): F2222 (0-4-5)

Leopardstown Festival Hurdle winner (Unaccompanied): 121123411 (5-2-9)

Punchestown Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 31311 (3-1-5)

Morgiana Hurdle winner (Thousand Stars): 218512 (2-2-6)

Previous season Royal Bond winner (Zaidpour): 2128 (1-2-4)

Hatton's Grace winner (Voler La Vedette): 242P1 (1-2-5)

Deloitte Novice Hurdle winner (Oscars Well): 12 (1-1-2)

Lismullen Hurdle winner (Voler La Vedette): 224 (0-2-3)

Tara Hurdle winner (Zaidpour): 242 (0-2-3)

Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 372 (0-1-3)

Kempton Christmas Hurdle winner (Binocular): 5 (0-0-1)

5 of 10 winners ran in Festival Hurdle at Leopardstown last time, finishing 11311

4 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle at the previous Cheltenham Festival (2 Champion Hdl, 1 Supreme, 1 Neptune)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Morgiana, finishing 2311

4 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, finishing 1311

4 of 10 winners had run in the Hatton's Grace, finishing 3321

3 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Hurdle, finishing F21

2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Future Champions Nov Hurdle, finishing 13

Trainers

Colm Murphy (2-2-7) saddled Brave Inca to gain 2 wins and 2 seconds.

Charles Byrnes (1-1-2) trained Solwhit to win this in 2010 and finish 2nd last year.

Willie Mullins (1-0-6) saddled Hurricane Fly to win it last year.

British trained runners (0-1-5) have gained just 1 place from 5 runners in the past 10 years.

Price

8 of 10 winners were priced 10/3 or shorter

This is certainly not a race for longshots with 8/1 and 9/1 the two long priced winners in the past decade.

Favourites (6-2-11) have won 6 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 2.73.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• Aged 6 or a previous Champion or Supreme Novices Hurdle winner
• Finished in the first 3 last time out
• Run 2 or 3 times this season
• Had its last run in December (preferably in the Festival Hurdle)
• Previously won a grade 1 hurdle
• Previously won at Leopardstown
• Finished in first 4 at 2011 Cheltenham Festival
• First 3 in Morgiana, Hatton’s Grace and/or Punchestown Champ Hurdle
• Trained in Ireland
• Priced 10/3 or shorter (favourite has a strong record)
•  

Well it’s such a good race pity on form it’s down to how far Hurricane Fly can win by,  I really do think the 5l it beat Thousand Stars (won the Morgiana with Oscars Well 5l behind)  is the best form on show it’s such a good horse that can handle any going. The youngster Kalann needs decent good or fast ground (you cant dismiss its second to the real Article on soft ground last time though beating Oscars Wells into third) - keep your eye on this one quoted at 100/1 at time of writing - the other 5yr old Unaccompanied can be given a squeak and attracts me  on its last run beating both Thousand Stars and Oscars Well  in a fast time on soft at Leopardstown (quite easily) no 5yr old has won this race it will have to be an exceptional improver tomorrow. Based on only on piece of the stats and thats the vulnerability of the Fly on its first time out for the season its has been beaten odds on on a return from 201 days ( I know he's done well with layoff's  as well) but its the return -giving this much weight  to a youngster who has actually recorded as good a time for the 2miles as the champion - hdles well and has 10lbs in hand -

 Bob

Racing today!

In the 1.30 Cheltenham i have several horses from my notes in three with Thattldoboy, River Dor and Night Alliance but Im surprised to see Bottman this high as RAG in the extremes of 130 BSP and 12.0 Place SP. Has in this field size 2-0-3 record, is course winner on Hurdles and finished 3 lenghts to useful Helpston who finished 2nd in a 22k Chase next time out with 161 rated runners behind him. His 2nd to Bold Addition 130+ rated on Hurdles over Course distance is a also not too bad and today Bottman starts out off a very low weight inclusive the claimer who takes 5lbs.
I dont think it has a huge chance, but there is some ability and these prices are just mad i think, considering that the step down will also suit Bottman. Im trying to trade this one inrunning and see what happens.

Back Bottman 160 BSP down to 25 Inrunning
Back Bottman to place 12.0 BSP for 4 places down to 2.0 Inrunning finishing head 5th

Cheltenham 15.40

I have the feeling Dynaste at 2.92 to place is a very solid bet, in this reappearance against Big Bucks, they will have learned from LTO and I still have the feeling this horse is one that can beat Big Bucks on a good day.

Edit: This are two high class hurdlers Big Bucks 1st and Dynaste 2nd 7 lengths, who looked today much more in style like in Haydock on this galloping track and went home applying quite some pressure trading down to 2.0, but Big Bucks is a horse of a lifetime and replied nicely, but would say this was the closest a horse came to put Big Bucks under pressure this time. Dynaste for sure one to follow over hurdles again on the right tracks as this is only a 6 year old.

Boooom!

The Boylesports.com (Handicap) Hurdle 28jan 2012

The Boylesports.com (Handicap) Hurdle (formerly the Ladbrokes, Pierse or MCR Hurdle) 100000.00 guaranteed For 4yo+ Rated 0-145 Weight raised 2 Minimum weight 9-10 Penalties (after calculation of the handicap), a hurdle winner to carry any penalty the handicapper may allot Staying Article's Handicap Mark 139 Confirmed34 Penalty value 1st €60,000.00 2nd €19,000.00 3rd €9,000.00 4th €3,000.00 5th €2,000.00 6th €1,000.00 takes place at Leopardstown on Saturday 28th January and is one of the major handicap hurdles on the Irish national hunt calendar. Run over 2 miles for 4yos and upwards rated 0-145, it is always a lively betting heat. Currently 30 runners so no selections at this time! Going is the famous  Irish yielding – soft to the rest of us -

the past 10 runnings: 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 2-5-62

6yo: 2-14-69

7yo: 3-3-61

8yo: 3-4-40

9yo: 0-1-18

10yo+: 0-3-14

10 of 10 winners were aged 5 to 8, though they did make up almost 80% of the total runners.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-12 or more: 1-11-72

Horses carrying 10-11 or less: 9-19-190

 Only 2 winning animals have carried more than 10-09. Horses carrying 10-11 or less have won the last 9 runnings and are especially favoured in softer ground.

Top Weight: 00940200008 (0-2-11) The form of Staying Article (today’s top weight is formidable) He got beaten time before last but won his last so well and looks like he needs further but this race is run at a hell of a pace and will stay 14/1 tonight looks a brill each way price   

Horses carrying a penalty (0-1-24) have a particularly bad record, gaining just one place from 24 representatives, 13 of which were sent off 12/1 or below (4 were favourite or co-favourite). None have penalties today

Official Ratings

Horses rated 127 or higher: 0-4-39

Horses rated 116 to 126: 8-17-130

Horses rated 115 or lower: 2-9-95

8 of 10 winners were officially rated between 116 and 126 & they have filled 25 of 40 places. Plenty of good animals above this mark but the stats hold up year after year

The runners who were placed last time out / within this age bracket Off OR and best MR last time out

Make a Track 44 dsr (6 10-12 )Won hdles at Punchestown  - What a Charm 5 10-08) Progressive filly won at Leopardstown –Scottish Boogie 5 10-5–Never won at the major venues but its last run at Leopardstown was impressive high cruising speed Bridle horse.Citizenship 6 10-04 –gets in here well light for a horse that travels so well and trounced a field at Punchestown – ran well enough last time out - He is an improved performer who should be able to win another handicap.

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners won or placed last time (exception missed out on a place in a grade c h'cap hurdle by a short head on previous start)

8 of 10 winners posted their highest MR in the last year on their last start

8 of 10 winners had previous start at Leopardstown, Punchestown or Fairyhouse

7 of 10 winners (last 6) had run in the past 35 days

10 of 10 winners had run no more than 4 times that season

10 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 9 hurdles

10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 5 handicap hurdles

8 of 10 winners had yet to win a handicap hurdle

No winner of this race had previously won a handicap hurdle worth 10K+.

10 of 10 winners were second season hurdlers

Other Races

Clonmel Martinstown Opportunity H'cap Hurdle winner (Dul Ar An Ol): 1 (1-0-1)

Fairyhouse Membership 2012 Handicap Hurdle winner (Bay Of Kotor):17 (1-0-2)

Mallow.ie Handicap Hurdle winner (Madame Mado): 30 (0-1-2)

Bavaria Imported Premium Lager H'cap Hurdle winner (Ubi Ace): 5 (0-0-1)

Isobel Boutique Adare Hurdle winner (Sailors Warn): 00 (0-0-2)

Follow Punchestown On Facebook Novice H'cap Hurdle winner (Citizenship): 07 (0-0-2)

Download Free Racing Post App. H'cap Hurdle winner (Askthemaster): 0F0 (0-0-3)

Bar One Racing H'cap Hurdle winner (Staying Article): 50506 (0-0-5)

Paddypower.com Handicap Hurdle winner (Cass Bligh): 060707 (0-0-6)

4 of 10 winners ran in a hurdle at the Punchestown Festival, finishing 2365

3 of 10 winners were placed in a hurdles race at Leopardstown Christmas meeting

2 of 2 Willie Mullins-trained winners ran in Bar One H'cap Hurdle, finishing 25

Running Style for you in running punters

8 of 10 winners raced in mid-division or tracked the leaders

In general it is not easy to come from too far back in this race and being situated in the front 7 or 8 is highly preferable.

Trainers

Willie Mullins (2-6-28) trained the first 2 last year and trained 3 of the first 4 home in 2010. Both his winners ran in the Bar One Handicap Hurdle at Fairyhouse in December.

Tony Martin (1-2-8) has gained 1 win and 2 places from his 8 runners since 2002.

Robert Tyner (1-1-3), Charles Byrnes (1-1-4) and Jessica Harrington (1-1-13) have each saddled the winner and a placed finisher in past 10 years.

Noel Meade (0-0-20), Eddie O’Grady (0-0-12) and Charlie Swan (0-0-6) have failed to train a placed finisher in this from their combined 36 runners in the last 10 years.

Price

9 of 10 winners were priced between 5/1 and 16/1

The one big shock in this race was Penny’s Bill at 50/1 in 2009, when a slightly fortuitous winner over the favourite Psycho in 2nd.

Favourites (2-1-14) have gained 2 wins in the past decade, giving a level stakes loss of 0.50.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• Aged 5 to 8
• Won or placed last time (ideally at Leopardstown, Fairyhouse or Punchestown)
• Posted their highest MR last time out
• Run no more than 4 times this season
• Run 3 to 9 times over hurdles
• Run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles (winning 0 or 1)
• Second season hurdler
• Carrying less than 10-12
• Officially rated 116 to 126
• Tends to races prominently

 more tomorrow when the ground and animals have been sorted out - see the comments 

 Bob
My money is down for Make a Track win and 80/20 place win on betfair for Staying Article have taken the odds on Citizenship and am already green for the book as the price is shortening very quickly already from 25s down to 10s
 Result -----1 Citizenship 10/1 
2 Leah Claire 16/1 
3 Staying Article 14/1 
4 Sweet My Lord 20/1 

 BOOM for Citizenship Very decent race yummy and a clean up race for the stats......This was a remarkable performance from CITIZENSHIP to give Jessica Harrington her third success in the race. Apparently the horse nearly came down at the first flight and turning out of the back straight he appeared to have an impossible task. Half the field were in front of him at the second last and he had 13 runners to pass entering the straight, but the acceleration he showed was deeply impressive as he mowed his rivals down and won going away. It was obviously a career best performance and the drier ground seems to suit him as well. He could develop into something more than a handicapper in the next year or so he seems to have a telling turn of foot. 

Tough mare Leah Claire ran an absolute cracker. Patiently ridden by Ben Dalton, she was produced with every chance before the last and ran on well without having the acceleration of the winner. She justified her trainer´s opinion of there possibly being a good handicap in her.

Top-weight Staying Article was a revelation and showed his class. He raced handily but was keen almost the whole way and having gone to the front before the straight he only cried enough on the run-in. It was a really outstanding effort and he looks better than good handicap class. 

The Listed Sky bet Handicap Chase saturday 2.50 Doncaster

The Listed Sky bet Handicap Chase (formerly the Great Yorkshire) is run over 3 miles for 5yos and upwards and takes place at  2.50 Doncaster on Saturday 28th January. It is generally won by less exposed chasers who are proven over the 3 mile trip. The race was held at Southwell in 2006 & 2007 and has been abandoned for past 2 years.

 GOOD TO SOFT (Soft in places; GoingStick: 8.5) (Hurdles and dividing rail moved in approx 3yds where possible to provide fresh ground). (Sunny intervals)

Past 10 runnings (2000-2009):

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 1-0-7

7yo: 3-2-14

8yo: 2-5-24

9yo: 3-5-43

10yo: 1-7-28

11yo+: 0-3-23

Horses aged 6 to 8 have a combined record of 6-7-45.

Horses aged 9+ have a combined record of 4-15-94.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses allotted 10-12 or more: 5-12-80

Horses allotted 10-11 or less: 5-10-59

Not a whole lot to go one here however the highest weight carried to victory in the past 10 runnings has been 11-2.

Horses carrying a penalty (2-1-6) have won the race twice from just 6 representatives.

Official Ratings

Horses rated 137 or over: 0-6-36

Horses rated 128 to 136: 6-6-54

Horses rated 127 or below: 4-10-49

No horse rated over 136 has won the race in the past 10 runnings and the last 5 winners have all been rated between 128 and 136.

 The horses that fall within  Off rating and age criteria are :-

 FRUITY O'ROONEY  (13 chases) 11-0  at 140 Off rating - won its first handicap last time at Kempton in a hot race up with the pace all the way two fallers when the going got tuff but looked as if would have won anyway currently 16/1  
 QIANSHAN LEADER(11 Chases) 10-8 at 134 Off rating won its last two the last at Doncaster was brilliant  emerged on top, following up his Kempton success 19 days earlier. He was never far away, jumping superbly throughout and displayed a most willing attitude to repel the persistent challenge of the runner-up. This was another personal-best effort so he´s clearly at the top of hisgame, stays very well and looks well worth aiming towards the Kempton Park Chase (formerly known as Racing Post Chase) back at Kempton in February.

 SHALIMAR FROMENTRO 10-04 off rating 130  a really dark 6 yr old who was disqualified at  Auteil and then fell at Beecher’s behind West End Rocker – worth watching the market beat Fruity O’Rooney by 5l getting 5lb more than weight for age from his two penalised rivals, ran a blinder against the smart Wymott at Exeter last month, but he was never going to win this, especially as his jumping wasn´t as polished as the other pair, until he was presented with the race at the final fence.

Riguez Dancer 10-3  Off rating 129 never won further than 2miles and Ferdy Murphy trying this trip first time was tried at 2m4f last time and plugged around the back has won on deep ground but best on good.

Osric 10-1 off rating 127 funny old boy who can put in some stinkers – was heavily backed last time at newbury made good headway in the home straight but just did not go through with it

Recent/Past Form 7 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on their last completed start (2 of 3 exceptions were unplaced in grade 3 handicaps)

8 of 10 winners had run in the past 35 days

10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 10 chases

10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 8 handicap chases

7 of 10 winners had yet to win a handicap chase

9 of 10 winners were either 1st or 2nd season chasers

7 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (1 exception was a maiden who had been runner-up over 4M 1F and other two were having their first try over 3M+)

10 of 10 winners had won at a left-handed track 

Other Races

Pertemps Network Handicap Chase winner (Qianshan Leader): 3P5 (0-1-3)

William Hill - Home of Betting Handicap Chase winner (Fruity O'Rooney): 77 (0-0-2)

Trainers

Paul Nicholls (2-0-8) has won 2 of the last 5 renewals, including the last running.

Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-8) and David Pipe (1-0-1) have each won 1 of the past 10 runnings.

Price

7 of 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 9/1 one at 16/1 Recent trend has been towards horses prominent in the betting, with 7 of the last 8 winners going off at single-figures odds and coming from the first 5 in the betting.

Favourites (2-1-11) have won 2 of last 10 running’s, giving a level stakes profit of 1.50.It would be madness to not take a price on the favourite Hold On Julio who is improving with every race and a realistic Cheltenham candidate his win at Sandown was impressive especially as he looks a complete left handed animal who met all kinds of wrong footing at the railway fences  

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 6 to 8

·         Finished in the first 2 last time in the past 35 days

·         Carrying no more than 11-2

·         Officially rated 128 and 136

·         Run in no more than 10 chases and 8 handicap chases

·         1st or 2nd season chaser

·         Won over at least 3 miles

·         Trained by Paul Nicholls

·         Priced between 4/1 to 9/1

 Good Luck today 

 Bob
 Result ----Calgary Bay 12/1
Shakalackaboom boom 6/1
Fruity O'Roony  22/1 
 Only a third place for the stats  - was already throwing out the distress signs when jinking at the last and how  Mr Moore Stayed on him I don't know finished riding bareback - was lucky the saddle did not fall off before the line!