The Listed Sky bet Handicap Chase saturday 2.50 Doncaster

The Listed Sky bet Handicap Chase (formerly the Great Yorkshire) is run over 3 miles for 5yos and upwards and takes place at  2.50 Doncaster on Saturday 28th January. It is generally won by less exposed chasers who are proven over the 3 mile trip. The race was held at Southwell in 2006 & 2007 and has been abandoned for past 2 years.

 GOOD TO SOFT (Soft in places; GoingStick: 8.5) (Hurdles and dividing rail moved in approx 3yds where possible to provide fresh ground). (Sunny intervals)

Past 10 runnings (2000-2009):

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 1-0-7

7yo: 3-2-14

8yo: 2-5-24

9yo: 3-5-43

10yo: 1-7-28

11yo+: 0-3-23

Horses aged 6 to 8 have a combined record of 6-7-45.

Horses aged 9+ have a combined record of 4-15-94.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses allotted 10-12 or more: 5-12-80

Horses allotted 10-11 or less: 5-10-59

Not a whole lot to go one here however the highest weight carried to victory in the past 10 runnings has been 11-2.

Horses carrying a penalty (2-1-6) have won the race twice from just 6 representatives.

Official Ratings

Horses rated 137 or over: 0-6-36

Horses rated 128 to 136: 6-6-54

Horses rated 127 or below: 4-10-49

No horse rated over 136 has won the race in the past 10 runnings and the last 5 winners have all been rated between 128 and 136.

 The horses that fall within  Off rating and age criteria are :-

 FRUITY O'ROONEY  (13 chases) 11-0  at 140 Off rating - won its first handicap last time at Kempton in a hot race up with the pace all the way two fallers when the going got tuff but looked as if would have won anyway currently 16/1  
 QIANSHAN LEADER(11 Chases) 10-8 at 134 Off rating won its last two the last at Doncaster was brilliant  emerged on top, following up his Kempton success 19 days earlier. He was never far away, jumping superbly throughout and displayed a most willing attitude to repel the persistent challenge of the runner-up. This was another personal-best effort so he´s clearly at the top of hisgame, stays very well and looks well worth aiming towards the Kempton Park Chase (formerly known as Racing Post Chase) back at Kempton in February.

 SHALIMAR FROMENTRO 10-04 off rating 130  a really dark 6 yr old who was disqualified at  Auteil and then fell at Beecher’s behind West End Rocker – worth watching the market beat Fruity O’Rooney by 5l getting 5lb more than weight for age from his two penalised rivals, ran a blinder against the smart Wymott at Exeter last month, but he was never going to win this, especially as his jumping wasn´t as polished as the other pair, until he was presented with the race at the final fence.

Riguez Dancer 10-3  Off rating 129 never won further than 2miles and Ferdy Murphy trying this trip first time was tried at 2m4f last time and plugged around the back has won on deep ground but best on good.

Osric 10-1 off rating 127 funny old boy who can put in some stinkers – was heavily backed last time at newbury made good headway in the home straight but just did not go through with it

Recent/Past Form 7 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on their last completed start (2 of 3 exceptions were unplaced in grade 3 handicaps)

8 of 10 winners had run in the past 35 days

10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 10 chases

10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 8 handicap chases

7 of 10 winners had yet to win a handicap chase

9 of 10 winners were either 1st or 2nd season chasers

7 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (1 exception was a maiden who had been runner-up over 4M 1F and other two were having their first try over 3M+)

10 of 10 winners had won at a left-handed track 

Other Races

Pertemps Network Handicap Chase winner (Qianshan Leader): 3P5 (0-1-3)

William Hill - Home of Betting Handicap Chase winner (Fruity O'Rooney): 77 (0-0-2)

Trainers

Paul Nicholls (2-0-8) has won 2 of the last 5 renewals, including the last running.

Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-8) and David Pipe (1-0-1) have each won 1 of the past 10 runnings.

Price

7 of 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 9/1 one at 16/1 Recent trend has been towards horses prominent in the betting, with 7 of the last 8 winners going off at single-figures odds and coming from the first 5 in the betting.

Favourites (2-1-11) have won 2 of last 10 running’s, giving a level stakes profit of 1.50.It would be madness to not take a price on the favourite Hold On Julio who is improving with every race and a realistic Cheltenham candidate his win at Sandown was impressive especially as he looks a complete left handed animal who met all kinds of wrong footing at the railway fences  

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

·         Aged 6 to 8

·         Finished in the first 2 last time in the past 35 days

·         Carrying no more than 11-2

·         Officially rated 128 and 136

·         Run in no more than 10 chases and 8 handicap chases

·         1st or 2nd season chaser

·         Won over at least 3 miles

·         Trained by Paul Nicholls

·         Priced between 4/1 to 9/1

 Good Luck today 

 Bob
 Result ----Calgary Bay 12/1
Shakalackaboom boom 6/1
Fruity O'Roony  22/1 
 Only a third place for the stats  - was already throwing out the distress signs when jinking at the last and how  Mr Moore Stayed on him I don't know finished riding bareback - was lucky the saddle did not fall off before the line!