11.30 had a look at these races: All horses have a strong money on it tending downwards and are also strong steamer candidates. I think if you back these horses midday and lay back before the off, then you would make a profit on long term.
Spacecraft 2.52 BSP (36k from 54k)12.55 Southwell 2nd
Laffan 1.96 BSP ( 42k from 69k)14.25 Southwell 1st
Blossom King 8.8 BSP ( 5,5Kfrom 19k) 2.40 Leicester 5th
Larks Lad 4.8 BSP (9,5k from 30k) 3.10 Leicester unpl
Gl!
I had one day an idea, which is maybe interesting. Make a software that compares the single matched amount to the total matched amount and the calculates odds just from this figure.
For example. 5k from 10 k would be odds of 2.0 BSP and then if the real odds are higher by a significant degree back it. My theory is this, that when you have many people thinking a horse is bad they lay it, but then you have maybe people who have better knowledge that back it and together it lets the single matched amount increase. It can also drift, but there is interest for a horse and I prefer knowing interest, than knowing if its laying interest or backing interest. On another side i question if a favourite steams, but the matched amount is low, if its real significant money?
1 comment:
Hi Rade first off the bat this is not my way of backing horses - its strictly a layers indicator I found very useful ONLY WHEN I AM INTERESTED IN A SINGLE ANIMAL not as a universal system (which I have no time for) its going to be market concentrated with normally un raced or poor quality horses or fields where there are too many unknowns. Pick your stable where you know they punt - more normally flat racing - Venatia Williams yard over jumps when backed and sustained market support have a convincing strike rate whilst William Amos yard is seldom backed substantially until right at the off (within seconds really)
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