Today I bet the first time just Inrunning with the geekstoy training mode and i didnt study form running styles just had the delayed betfair live video and I was surprised how much advantage you get, when ignore all normal factors and just concentrate on the race and take a close look at the horses. I just watched out for their body language during the first half of the race.
I played maybe 8 races and had three 8/1 plus winners and three lays under 4.0 that lost.
I matched on A.W for 28 Odds the winner Unex Picasso, that went even at odds of 1000 and won. I just saw after 1/4 of the race after a bad start that this horse raced still close held up and looked very fresh I then had a bet and it had a short downperiod went to 1000 and finished strongly.
In the 2.10 Leicester Soir Destruval was 3.0 2nd favourite and during the first quarter of the race stayed all the time under 3.3 despite having a down head carriage and looking really unfit to me, Lay and this horse finished last. The fav looked strong all the time Baile Anrai but Valid Point looked also very strong from the front during the race and shortly before 3/4 of the race i backed it at 18, because it looked strong and I didnt understand the odds, because Larks Lad and Soir Destruval looked nervous and I thought against the fav worth ago at 18 at this race point. Made a nice move forward and went 1.22 Inrunning finishing in a sprint finish 2nd.
This experience really made me think, what worth has form, when on the given day the horse looks bad or a horse that has no form looks superb and performs during the race. I think its worthwhile to decide a bet Inrunning just on the impression how the race pans out and decide accordingly, because its hard to predict pace and fitness you have to take a look inrunning, with factors you dont know before the off really.
7 comments:
Just one comment on your post Rade.
When you look at a chaser do not disqualify it for its "head well down" this is quite a good thing in itself - it means the horse is looking - It was its first chase and jumped very neatly ok the jockey may be looking at wide open spaces but the horse is looking for the next fence - take a look at the 3.10 race again and remember this was its first chase - it had nothing to do with his jumping that he could not finish its race more to do with its inability to last home up the Leicester hill 2m7f cooked him but think he can be a very decent novice chaser over less of a distance or flatter track
that read wrong I meant you to look at its debut race at Folkstone where it had plenty of cover doing its best jumps from about 2.5 miles out performed exactly the same way till simply running out of petrol at the distance and eased when beaten - looks like an animal that will look after itself in bigger fields right handed and around 2.4 miles
I just wrote a long message that got lost. because i wasnt logged in mate. Damn!
Interesting to know this information,
Its time to get a book about horse body language.Do you know what certain movements of the horse tell me in particular, this is very interesting stuff to learn about.
About the Inrunning thing, I had the opinion, that you have no chance to get value Inrunning, but I think I was wrong.
When you watch the race and look at it I think it was bit the case that Larks Lad ( looked very weak) 1/2 on, my Lay ( head down carriage and later a bit signs of energy loss), the fav looked strong ( always travelling sweetly close held up middivision going to strike late) and Valid Point ( looked also strong making the pace, but it looked still going strongly and absolutely no signs of stopping) and was still available 18.0 BSP 3/4 of the race.
"it had nothing to do with his jumping"
did I say that?
just meant it didnt look naturally racing and thought it looses energy trough this later.The jumping was okay.
glad you into in running mate its the most fascinating of punting but horse body language isn't all that difficult to understand.
The best place by far is the parade ring - and for race horses when they get out onto the course proper - an animal that wheels quickly and wants to get it going is a plus sign as are the walking around at the start. will do a piece when I can of my time as a kid when I was around horses more than now - There are many signs in running swishing tail ears flat back /ears forwards all tell you how the horse is feeling will try and give you some of those points but you have to go to a track to get the full picture.. Horses do talk but its the conformation you want to watch for first off - it's easy to tell the difference between the high, rounded outline of an excited horse and the flat outline of a relaxed one. An animal walking around the parade ring like an old dog and taking it all in ears pricked looking around is obvious and a good sign - on its toes jig jogging tight frame fighting its handler for its head is not - have many times heard that such a horse is up for it - the reverse is so much more often true !
We all have our own opinions on 'body language' and I am not getting into it as Bob is far more knowledgeable in this sphere, however, I will say, that when betting in-running, don't concentrate merely on what you phrased as body language - form is vitally important and you should note, before the race, which horses will likely lead, be close up, held up etc and beware the pace of the race!
On this point im not 100 percent sure, as there is the danger of making a decision, that is based on previous knowledge. What I mean is, you make a pace scenario and have something in mind how they will run, but then in the race you spot a horse, that looks weak at this point, but you decide accordingly to you preconceived pace scenario, that its a hold up runner. Its maybe good to make pace scenario on past observations, but you have to pay close attention not to get caught Inrunning and be disciplined to act on what you see there. I think thats he way you could approach it.
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