2.35 The 32Red Tolworth (Novice) Hurdle Sandown 070112

  Apologies to all for my absence but am back for some stats on the Best race of the day at sandown is the 2.35  The 32Red Tolworth (Novice) Hurdle the first grade 1 race, run in Great Britain, of the New Year. The race was abandoned in 2009 & 2010 and has been rescheduled to other tracks 3 times (Wincanton, Warwick and Ascot) since 2000.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings (2000 to 2011):

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 0-1-5

5yo: 5-6-34

6yo: 4-4-22

7yo: 1-2-7

8yo: 0-1-1

9yo+: 0-0-2

9 of 10 winners were aged 5 or 6 though they have represented approximately 79% of the total runners, so no great trend here.

Bred

Irish bred: 6-4-33

French bred: 2-5-16

GB bred: 1-4-17

German bred: 1-0-3

USA bred: 0-1-2

Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 last time out (Prospect Wells is the only NON qualifier)

10 of 10 winners posted their highest MR last time out

10 of 10 winners had run in the past 45 days (Non Qualifier Captain Conan)

10 of 10 winners had won one of their last 2 races

9 of 10 winners had run in 1 to 4 hurdles

10 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 on all completed hurdles starts

Only 2 of 10 winners had previously won a graded hurdle

Other Races

sportingbet.com Novices' Hurdle (Prospect Wells): 114 (2-0-3)

First Great Western Maiden Hurdle winner (Colour Squadron): 1 (1-0-1)

Paramount Security NH Novice Hurdle winner (Magnifique Etoile): 523 (0-2-3)

3 of 10 winners ran in the Kennel Gate last time out, finishing 121

2 of 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Champion Bumper, finishing 14

2 of 10 winners ran in John Smith's Champion Bumper, finishing 56

3 of 4 Paul Nicholls-trained winners won a Wincanton bumper the previous Feb/March

2 of 4 Paul Nicholls-trained winners ran in Paul Nicholls Racing "NH" Novice Hurdle at Wincanton in October

Trainers

Paul Nicholls (4-3-9) has a superb record in this race having gained 4 wins and 3 seconds from his 9 runners in the race, including winning 3 of the last 4. I cant help thinking his runner today is not going here as his first choice only being entered on Tuesday when the card was reopened as there were so few entries

Nicky Henderson (1-0-4) trained the winner last year.

Philip Hobbs (0-2-3) has seen all 3 of his runners in this since 2000 finish 3rd.

Price

9 of 10 winners were sent off 5/1 or shorter

8 of 10 winners came from the first 2 in the betting. The longest priced winner in the past 10 years was 11/1.

Favourites (5-2-11) have won 5 of last 10 renewals & show a level stakes profit of 2.12.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• Aged 5 or 6
• Finished in the first 2 last time out in the past 45 days
• Posted highest RPR last time out
• Run 1 to 4 times over hurdles
• Won one of last two starts
• Never finished outside the first 3 over hurdles
• Finished in first 2 in Kennel Gate Novice Hurdle

 My eye is drawn to the really progressive Magnifique Etoile who won the Paramount Secuity  National hunt Novice hurdle  Bangor 14th Dec - This novice hurdle went to the ill-fated subsequent Challow Hurdle winner Backspin 12 months ago and was won by horses of the calibre of Peddlers Cross, Whiteoak, My Way De Solzen and Garde Champetre in earlier seasons. The field was soon strung out and,as expected, the ground looked to be riding much quicker on the hurdles course. Magnifigue Etoile  made a winning debut over hurdles at Statford in October and followed up in taking fashion, cutting down the leader on the home turn before drawing clear to win with plenty in the tank. He is likely to stay further and is a nice prospect,his hurdling has room for improvement and he is yet to run on ground worse than good to soft. The hurdles course at the moment is considered to be riding no worse than Good to soft for the majority of the track 

 Result ----- A cracking staying handicap run at a solid gallop and the form looks sound, but underfoot conditions played a big part in proceedings.

A gamble landed as the fast-improving HOLD ON JULIO ran out a decisive winner to follow up his easy C&D win on his debut for the yard 63 days earlier off a 13lb higher mark (2lb out of handicap). He ultimately won well, but his rider emerges with plenty of credit as he didn´t convince through the first half of the race due to getting the Railway fences wrong first time around. Indeed he wasn´t great over them on the final circuit, but he does stay very well and, looking at the manner in which he powered clear up the home straight, was clearly still very well handicapped.

The winner suffered a severe bout of ringworm after his previous win in November, but had reportedly worked very well and his stable is going great guns at present. He enjoys some cut underfoot and further improvement, despite another likely hike in the weights, is impossible to rule out as it was just his third outing over regulation fences. Should there be some juice at the Cheltenham Festival he´ll take all the beating in the Festival Handicap on the opening day.

Qhilimar, who unseated last time, set out to make all and turned in a decent effort from the front. The handicapper probably now has his measure, but he remains in good heart and rates a decent enough benchmark for this form.