The hot fav looks strong to me and there are several others in this, that showed class and just need the right conditions(Forty Five,Mud Monkey,Ben Arctic, Cottage Acre), that can pop up at a big price, my approach in this race is a Lay therefore.
Autumn Spirit
5,4 BSP 2/10
I think Autmn Spirit is in general a horse that prefers fast ground and its wins came from in comparison to todays opposition in much weaker company. Had also an Head to Head win with 5 lenghts against the younger Akarshan ridden out with a weight 10-00 against Akarshan 11-12.
Akarshan prefers this ground much more and the distance, based solely on that and the weights they start off today I expect to reverse the form, if handling the long layoff. I rate other horses, that didnt race head to Head also much higher in this, so the Lay looks a good option to me.
Analysis: A strong pace again and Mud Monkey fell at the first, there was still some gallop and I was wrong on the Lay even, when finished 2nd as it ran again a really good race, made a lot of pace but found a bit against heavy gambled winner in the end.Ben Arctic didnt suit the pace set up, found nil as front runs and needs prob a field when it can go alone and there are no strong runners from the bridle. Forty Five again ran a good race and should really win next time.
2.00 Ludlow
Grams and Ounces
2.0 BSP 5/10 Win
heavily gambled improver and Lto this horse really convinced me really optical and is thrown into a weaker affair today with more weight but should win this again I think..
Roybuoy
40 BSP 0,5/10 Win-8,0 BSP to place
Is great in price and I take it with in this race for a place chance and a small Win wager, if the hot fav in any way makes a mistake or runs a shocker.
Reason: Is only 5 year old and finished not far in 4th LTO to decent horses like Banyan Tree, Numen and Ravi River in a Claiming contest not too bad. The trainer and jockey are top on this track.
Analysis: Strong pace from the outset suited Grams and Ounces again made smooth headway and striked late before the last bend as usual. The amazing thin about this horse is, that it is so calm in the betting parade amazing and then just races his race as its for sure it will win. I was a bit puzzled that GOunces started already 20 lenghts behind the leaders, why is it like this? Makes this sense? There was again loads of money on this horse, but how long will this be? Still is one of my favourite horses imo, given the way it runs.Royboy had a bit small late money and made the pace weakened rapidly against the held up types. Also has stamina issues, needs lone pace with a field not too classy bridle prospects.
Ludlow 14.30
Alasi 1,25 BSP
is on my follow list and thrown in a contest, that is a walkover with ease, if no mistakes, but its a perfect jumper so should win easily.
One that could be interesting here is complete RAG Laughing Game 28BSP/200 Win SP, that showed early in its career some winning form on GS-Soft tendency on Class 4 level, if the hot favy struggles or falls out something like this here a small field on an easy track on GS-Soft should be the best possibility to have a shout. Has only a chance if finding back to form and the fav falls out, but at small stakes at these prices worth a go I think. Another point is that in this small field of 6 runners three have a longer absence than 200 days ,whcih could well play into a sneaky place for my selection.
Analysis:
Todays early money with power behind:
Rosoff 14.20 Lingfield 6.6 currently Won
Brunettesonly 15.20 Lingfield 4.8 currently Won (drifted out to 8, but in a way to back it back with high stakes late)
Comment: I watched now these kind of horses, that show early high spikes with downward trend for a while and most of the time, they ran very well and win, or there is a heavy drift and they dont perform well,it takes a bit of obseravtion from the early to 12.00 market and look out for loads of money matched on a runner combined with high spikes and again observation before the off, with a fast betting software API, and then I dont kidd you are able to observe sometimes manipulated odds, for example they let it drift a bit with small or medium stakes and then the mass jumps on and then heavy stakes are backed within seconds. This late activity combined with an early market observation finds actually really good value bets sometimes. These candidates over 4.0 -10.0 that show big money are worthwhile following, but it needs careful obseravation of spikes, also if its a mass eyecatcher from form and so on... I dont say that every race is fixed but there is def a strong pattern from odds observation and how a race turns out,and not just drifters and steamers, sometimes there is a horse shortening the whole day, but there are no significant spikes and then late there comes a big Lay spike taking the mass money, who back it, because it steamed.
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