So today am ready to take on the bookies and layers
Hope you enjoyed the stats for the big race at Warwick here is my Saturday morning thoughts
2.30 Warwick – a very decent line up for this race and old favourite of mine Dorset Square has been raised 8lbs for its win at Cheltenham last time – this is a lovely in running horse who lags around the back and price just goes out and out can easily carry this weight and I have him a few pounds well in on his last run – one to watch out for is Handy Andy for the Tizzard’s – winner with supreme ease on his novice hdle travelled like a future star that day – has been sidelined since pulling muscles but the tizzard’s think so much of him would not be in this race if they did not think it fully fit. Runs well fresh - Only a couple of horses have gone off double figures for this race and mid range in the weights for the younger brigade looks about right – have seen some decent gambles get home in the past so watch your betting.
3.40 a yummy race for the Aintree national profile – West End Rocker a favourite of the blog and selected for all its winning runs to date ran away with this last year - is promising for this year’s national at Aintree. If Aachen runs any sort of promising race in the 2.30 and Fine parchment in the 3.20 at Kempton (Kempton's second inspection at 10am proved inconclusive so clerk of the course Barney Clifford will look again at 11am.He said: "Temperatures are above freezing for the first time all morning and the fog has cleared. Conditions obviously need to improve again but we will check at 11 o'clock.") then do not discount Hey Big Spender even with top weight (and their record in the race is pretty poor) It did not have a hard race in the welsh national where it was making ground at the 12th when falling (the placed horses in that race have not fared well in this) He has course form and stays very well on g/soft ground I cannot see him out of the frame I like three others in the race – Sona Saasta Bench Warrent and Faasel as well. Pipe is talking up Fassel and the price has dropped from 12s to 8s which means I already have a free bet!
Sona Sasta had a hard race against Le Beau Bai before that one went on to win the welsh national I don’t have any particular love of this horse as it lacks a change of gear this ground and distance may play into its hands
Of these Bench Warrent must seem the unlikeliest of selections but you have to go back to its run here last February to see it’s in with a chance (though out of the weights it runs so well for a claimer and this guy is very stylish and takes off a very neat 10lbs to negate that) it lost its pitch in the welsh national but started powering at the end of the race –was 3lbs out of the handicap that day is on an improving profile and gets in off a low mark of 125 which astonishes me – with Hey Big Spender out would have been in the handicap proper but it’s not out --- and any money from the Charlie Mann yard will be significant.
Good luck today
Bob
4 comments:
3.10 warwick have only had a very quick study of the form but really like the chances of Jumps Road in this be lucky
Bob
If you fancy Dorset Square which is 9.0 imo in the betting, isnt it also value to back Pettitfour at 28.0 in this race, because finsihed online with him head to head and could have an advantage without uphill? Raced LTO against Big Bucks and Dynaste on Soft and couldnt go the Pace Dynaste set, but raced 2nd LTO and 3rd LTO decent races and I think its overpriced at 28.0.
I wont take anything away from your Pettifore at all Rade The long walk hurdle was way above its class but skipped over them the only 10 year old winner of the race was trained by twiston yard but is has a heffty old weight today and its best form by far is on faster ground. When beaten by Dorset square there was 12lbs weight advantage to dorset and that makes them very closely matched today and the Twiston yard has won this twice and once with a 20/1 shot -- on a going day has def chances good luck mate
Horses that raced so closely on a stiff big field Hcp over same distance and 655 days off for Pettitfour that day is okay I think to take it in at these prices today.
It steamed in already to 20s i see.
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