The Boylesports.com (Handicap) Hurdle 28jan 2012

The Boylesports.com (Handicap) Hurdle (formerly the Ladbrokes, Pierse or MCR Hurdle) 100000.00 guaranteed For 4yo+ Rated 0-145 Weight raised 2 Minimum weight 9-10 Penalties (after calculation of the handicap), a hurdle winner to carry any penalty the handicapper may allot Staying Article's Handicap Mark 139 Confirmed34 Penalty value 1st €60,000.00 2nd €19,000.00 3rd €9,000.00 4th €3,000.00 5th €2,000.00 6th €1,000.00 takes place at Leopardstown on Saturday 28th January and is one of the major handicap hurdles on the Irish national hunt calendar. Run over 2 miles for 4yos and upwards rated 0-145, it is always a lively betting heat. Currently 30 runners so no selections at this time! Going is the famous  Irish yielding – soft to the rest of us -

the past 10 runnings: 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 2-5-62

6yo: 2-14-69

7yo: 3-3-61

8yo: 3-4-40

9yo: 0-1-18

10yo+: 0-3-14

10 of 10 winners were aged 5 to 8, though they did make up almost 80% of the total runners.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-12 or more: 1-11-72

Horses carrying 10-11 or less: 9-19-190

 Only 2 winning animals have carried more than 10-09. Horses carrying 10-11 or less have won the last 9 runnings and are especially favoured in softer ground.

Top Weight: 00940200008 (0-2-11) The form of Staying Article (today’s top weight is formidable) He got beaten time before last but won his last so well and looks like he needs further but this race is run at a hell of a pace and will stay 14/1 tonight looks a brill each way price   

Horses carrying a penalty (0-1-24) have a particularly bad record, gaining just one place from 24 representatives, 13 of which were sent off 12/1 or below (4 were favourite or co-favourite). None have penalties today

Official Ratings

Horses rated 127 or higher: 0-4-39

Horses rated 116 to 126: 8-17-130

Horses rated 115 or lower: 2-9-95

8 of 10 winners were officially rated between 116 and 126 & they have filled 25 of 40 places. Plenty of good animals above this mark but the stats hold up year after year

The runners who were placed last time out / within this age bracket Off OR and best MR last time out

Make a Track 44 dsr (6 10-12 )Won hdles at Punchestown  - What a Charm 5 10-08) Progressive filly won at Leopardstown –Scottish Boogie 5 10-5–Never won at the major venues but its last run at Leopardstown was impressive high cruising speed Bridle horse.Citizenship 6 10-04 –gets in here well light for a horse that travels so well and trounced a field at Punchestown – ran well enough last time out - He is an improved performer who should be able to win another handicap.

Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners won or placed last time (exception missed out on a place in a grade c h'cap hurdle by a short head on previous start)

8 of 10 winners posted their highest MR in the last year on their last start

8 of 10 winners had previous start at Leopardstown, Punchestown or Fairyhouse

7 of 10 winners (last 6) had run in the past 35 days

10 of 10 winners had run no more than 4 times that season

10 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 9 hurdles

10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 5 handicap hurdles

8 of 10 winners had yet to win a handicap hurdle

No winner of this race had previously won a handicap hurdle worth 10K+.

10 of 10 winners were second season hurdlers

Other Races

Clonmel Martinstown Opportunity H'cap Hurdle winner (Dul Ar An Ol): 1 (1-0-1)

Fairyhouse Membership 2012 Handicap Hurdle winner (Bay Of Kotor):17 (1-0-2)

Mallow.ie Handicap Hurdle winner (Madame Mado): 30 (0-1-2)

Bavaria Imported Premium Lager H'cap Hurdle winner (Ubi Ace): 5 (0-0-1)

Isobel Boutique Adare Hurdle winner (Sailors Warn): 00 (0-0-2)

Follow Punchestown On Facebook Novice H'cap Hurdle winner (Citizenship): 07 (0-0-2)

Download Free Racing Post App. H'cap Hurdle winner (Askthemaster): 0F0 (0-0-3)

Bar One Racing H'cap Hurdle winner (Staying Article): 50506 (0-0-5)

Paddypower.com Handicap Hurdle winner (Cass Bligh): 060707 (0-0-6)

4 of 10 winners ran in a hurdle at the Punchestown Festival, finishing 2365

3 of 10 winners were placed in a hurdles race at Leopardstown Christmas meeting

2 of 2 Willie Mullins-trained winners ran in Bar One H'cap Hurdle, finishing 25

Running Style for you in running punters

8 of 10 winners raced in mid-division or tracked the leaders

In general it is not easy to come from too far back in this race and being situated in the front 7 or 8 is highly preferable.

Trainers

Willie Mullins (2-6-28) trained the first 2 last year and trained 3 of the first 4 home in 2010. Both his winners ran in the Bar One Handicap Hurdle at Fairyhouse in December.

Tony Martin (1-2-8) has gained 1 win and 2 places from his 8 runners since 2002.

Robert Tyner (1-1-3), Charles Byrnes (1-1-4) and Jessica Harrington (1-1-13) have each saddled the winner and a placed finisher in past 10 years.

Noel Meade (0-0-20), Eddie O’Grady (0-0-12) and Charlie Swan (0-0-6) have failed to train a placed finisher in this from their combined 36 runners in the last 10 years.

Price

9 of 10 winners were priced between 5/1 and 16/1

The one big shock in this race was Penny’s Bill at 50/1 in 2009, when a slightly fortuitous winner over the favourite Psycho in 2nd.

Favourites (2-1-14) have gained 2 wins in the past decade, giving a level stakes loss of 0.50.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• Aged 5 to 8
• Won or placed last time (ideally at Leopardstown, Fairyhouse or Punchestown)
• Posted their highest MR last time out
• Run no more than 4 times this season
• Run 3 to 9 times over hurdles
• Run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles (winning 0 or 1)
• Second season hurdler
• Carrying less than 10-12
• Officially rated 116 to 126
• Tends to races prominently

 more tomorrow when the ground and animals have been sorted out - see the comments 

 Bob
My money is down for Make a Track win and 80/20 place win on betfair for Staying Article have taken the odds on Citizenship and am already green for the book as the price is shortening very quickly already from 25s down to 10s
 Result -----1 Citizenship 10/1 
2 Leah Claire 16/1 
3 Staying Article 14/1 
4 Sweet My Lord 20/1 

 BOOM for Citizenship Very decent race yummy and a clean up race for the stats......This was a remarkable performance from CITIZENSHIP to give Jessica Harrington her third success in the race. Apparently the horse nearly came down at the first flight and turning out of the back straight he appeared to have an impossible task. Half the field were in front of him at the second last and he had 13 runners to pass entering the straight, but the acceleration he showed was deeply impressive as he mowed his rivals down and won going away. It was obviously a career best performance and the drier ground seems to suit him as well. He could develop into something more than a handicapper in the next year or so he seems to have a telling turn of foot. 

Tough mare Leah Claire ran an absolute cracker. Patiently ridden by Ben Dalton, she was produced with every chance before the last and ran on well without having the acceleration of the winner. She justified her trainer´s opinion of there possibly being a good handicap in her.

Top-weight Staying Article was a revelation and showed his class. He raced handily but was keen almost the whole way and having gone to the front before the straight he only cried enough on the run-in. It was a really outstanding effort and he looks better than good handicap class.