Previous winners profile
Winner | DP | DPA | Total | DI | CD |
Long Run | 1-0-4-3-0 | / | 8 | 0.60 | -0.13 |
Imperial Commander | 3-2-4-2-1 | PATB | 12 | 1.40 | 0.33 |
Kauto Star | 2-2-6-10-2 | DQ | 22 | 0.47 | -0.36 |
Denman | 0-1-1-6-2 | / | 10 | 0.18 | -0.90 |
Kauto Star | 2-2-6-10-2 | DQ | 22 | 0.47 | -0.36 |
War of Attrition | 0-1-3-8-4 | / | 16 | 0.19 | -0.94 |
Kicking King | 2-0-8-8-2 | 20+ | 20 | 0.43 | -0.40 |
Best Mate | 1-1-10-5-1 | PATB | 18 | 0.64 | -0.22 |
Best Mate | 1-1-10-5-1 | PATB | 18 | 0.64 | -0.22 |
Best Mate | 1-1-10-5-1 | PATB | 18 | 0.64 | -0.22 |
Looks Like Trouble | 1-4-5-2-0 | / | 12 | 1.67 | 0.33 |
See More Business | 0-0-3-6-1 | / | 10 | 0.18 | -0.80 |
Cool Dawn | 2-2-8-0-0 | / | 12 | 2.00 | 0.50 |
Mr Mulligan | 2-3-7-4-2 | PATB | 18 | 0.89 | -0.06 |
Imperial Call | 3-3-4-0-2 | / | 12 | 2.00 | 0.42 |
Master Oats | 9-0-3-2-0 | / | 14 | 3.00 | 1.14 |
The fellow | 0-0-4-4-2 | / | 10 | 0.25 | -0.80 |
Jodami | 2-0-6-8-6 | 20+ | 22 | 0.29 | -0.73 |
Cool Ground | 2-0-8-2-0 | / | 12 | 1.00 | 0.17 |
Garrison Savannah | 1-0-9-0-4 | / | 14 | 0.65 | -0.43 |
Probable winners (based on Dosage)
| Horse | DP | DPA | TOT | DI | CD |
| KAUTO STAR | 2-2-6-10-2 | DQ | 22 | 0.47 | -0.36 |
| BOSTONS ANGEL | 1-0-12-7-2 | 20+ | 22 | 0.47 | -0.41 |
| WHAT A FRIEND | 2-1-8-2-7 | DQ | 20 | 0.54 | -0.55 |
| CHINA ROCK | 0-2-3-4-3 | / | 12 | 0.41 | -0.67 |
| JESSIES DREAM | 0-1-3-4-2 | / | 10 | 0.33 | -0.70 |
| LONG RUN | 1-0-4-3-0 | / | 8 | 0.60 | -0.13 |
| THE GIANT BOLSTER | 3-0-10-5-2 | 20+ | 20 | 0.67 | -0.15 |
Possible winners (based on Dosage)
| Horse | DP | DPA | TOT | DI | CD |
| HEY BIG SPENDER | 2-1-13-4-4 | DQ | 24 | 0.66 | -0.29 |
| MAGNANIMITY | 3-0-10-9-2 | 20+ | 24 | 0.50 | -0.29 |
| WAYWARD PRINCE | 2-1-15-3-5 | DQ | 26 | 0.68 | -0.31 |
| CARRUTHERS | 2-1-11-6-0 | 20+ | 20 | 0.74 | -0.05 |
| WEIRD AL | 5-1-6-8-2 | DQ | 22 | 0.69 | -0.05 |
| MIDNIGHT CHASE | 3-1-7-4-1 | PATB | 16 | 0.88 | 0.06 |
| QUEL ESPRIT | 1-1-7-3-0 | / | 12 | 0.85 | 0.00 |
Split this table why? see Bens Blog -
DP | DPA | TOT | DI | CD | |
| TIME FOR RUPERT | 4-2-6-0-6 | / | 18 | 1.00 | -0.11 |
| THE MIDNIGHT CLUB | 3-2-6-0-1 | / | 12 | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| KNOCKARA BEAU | 3-5-8-1-1 | PATB | 18 | 2.00 | 0.44 |
| HALLEY | 3-1-14-0-0 | / | 18 | 1.57 | 0.39 |
| TIDAL BAY | 3-2-4-2-1 | PATB | 12 | 1.40 | 0.33 |
| CAPTAIN CHRIS | 4-1-7-4-0 | / | 16 | 1.13 | 0.31 |
| BURTON PORT | 1-4-15-0-0 | 20+ | 20 | 1.67 | 0.30 |
| ALBERTAS RUN | 5-1-6-6-0 | / | 18 | 1.00 | 0.28 |
| THE MINACK | 4-0-8-4-0 | / | 16 | 1.00 | 0.25 |
| FINIANS RAINBOW | 0-1-7-0-0 | / | 8 | 1.29 | 0.13 |
| APT APPROACH | 1-3-14-1-1 | DQ | 20 | 1.22 | 0.10 |
| MEDERMIT | 1-1-8-2-0 | / | 12 | 1.00 | 0.08 |
| SYNCHRONISED | 5-1-24-8-0 | 20+ | 38 | 0.90 | 0.08 |
| JUNIOR | 5-1-18-7-1 | DQ | 32 | 0.88 | 0.06 |
Unlikely winners (Based on Dosage)
DP | DPA | TOT | DI | CD | |
| GRANDS CRUS | 0-0-3-1-2 | / | 6 | 0.33 | -0.83 |
| MON MOME | 1-1-2-0-0 | / | 4 | 3.00 | 0.75 |
| QUITO DE LA ROQUE | 0-0-3-3-0 | / | 6 | 0.33 | -0.50 |
| POQUELIN | 5-0-5-0-0 | / | 10 | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| DIAMOND HARRY | 7-3-7-0-1 | / | 18 | 3.00 | 0.83 |
| LITTLE JOSH | 3-0-7-0-0 | / | 10 | 1.86 | 0.60 |
Vfb Users have an advantage that many others do not have and this information is gold dust - Go to Bens blog and get yourself familiar with the Dosage system -- You Know it makes sense especially when you read this stuff
Looking at the the current entries for the 3m2f challenge it is perhaps the ‘Unlikely Winners’ zone that throws up the most interesting pointer with current 3rd favourite GRANDS CRUS sitting snugly in the red area due to his limited number of total points. A thrice raced novice (probably four chase starts by the time March comes around) with an inadequate Dosage rating for the challenge of the Cheltenham Gold Cup? At the moment I wouldn’t be keen to depart with any of my hard-earned cash at his current ante-post odds of 8-1.DIAMOND HARRY is another in the red area and I’m still firmly of the opinion that he doesn’t quite stay the trip at Grade 1 level (I know he won the Hennessy but thanks to Denman he was able to cart around a measly 10 stone on his back that day!).
QUITO DE LA ROQUE is another who has to overcome the ‘less than 8 points’ trend.
The Green zone throws at us the 2 market leaders in LONG RUN &; KAUTO STAR as well as last seasons RSA Chase 1st and 2nd BOSTONS ANGEL & JESSIES DREAM. The ‘enigma’ that is WHAT A FRIEND also pops his head into the equation.
As always these figures are yours to use and abuse as and how you see fit. I personally use the Dosage figures in conjunction with other forms of analysis to come to my own conclusions.
If some of you are still unfamiliar with the workings of all things Dosage then I am currently giving away a FREE copy of my ‘intro to Dosage’ guide to all subscribers to the FREE NTF updates list. Simply pop your name and email in the form at the top right of the site and you will be send a link where, amongst other guides, you will be able to download a copy of my Dosage guide.
http://www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk/1121/the-2012-cheltenham-gold-cup-the-dosage-viewpoint/
9 comments:
Im not sure about this total dosage points trend, one thought popped in my mind. I have the feeling that new french sires emerged on the NH scene, that are not yet in the Chef de race list yet, I havent investigated, but maybe in the past the low dosage points horses were more from the US based sires and now there are more horses haveing less dosage points, coming from the more positive french NH sires? Just a thought, maybe Im wrong?
Dom Alco has for example Al Ferof, Neptune Collonges, Silviniaco Conti, Grands Crus in the top and this sire looks a solid NH type. Also Saints Des Saints is by Cadoudal, is top class jump sire ( so even Quito De La Roque lacks speed, this is a proper NH sire type i think)
Bostons Angel 65/1 could be the dosage pick as a progressive 7 year old, the last two races were no form mark and could be a surprise at these odds for a place?
Well that's thinking for you! So far you can only go on the proven stayers but I like your style looking for the animals that as yet have not fully proven themselves -- its the right way to go -- But this is the premier race of the calendar and like the Derby you have to look for blue Ribbon sires - USA breds are very good lines and animals thast in the main have proved their progeny are animals with more speed that stamina but can act on most ground conditions - french Top Sires are also stamina laden who have a touch more speed than endurance whilst the Irish animals in the main are stamina packed always worth watching the top sire prize money as it accumulates through the season to show the emerging animals - will post the list soon !
remember another solid stat for the gold cup is the athleticism which is required to jump these fences at speed - look for a high CIM animal that has performed at faster paces and don't take chances on animals that are younger than 7! even at that age they need to show they can take the hurly burly and Razzmatazz of the big day!
You have made me look already at the gold Cup prices Rade! Boston Angels is a live contender based on its win in the RSA at the festival last year - here is the write up from the racing post for those of you who dont have it -- "Despite winning two Grade 1 chases coming into this, and holding most of his Irish counterparts on form, BOSTONS ANGEL was allowed to go off a long price, presumably because punters saw his recent victories had come on easy ground (his jockey reported afterwards that his mount had been winning in Ireland in spite of the going), but he came into the picture going well and showed a great attitude under pressure to hold on in a thrilling finish. 50/1 and pulled up in last season´s Albert Bartlett, he has developed into a much better chaser than hurdler, and connections will no doubt have an eye on the Gold Cup next year, although Jessica Harrington, who enjoyed many a good Wednesday at the festival with Moscow Flyer in the past, had her horse down as Midlands National type. However, he will need to keep improving significantly to be a serious challenger for the big prize run on the Friday at this meeting, as this form looks below previous recent runnings ofthe race. Punchestown and Fairyhouse haven´t been ruled out this season, but the trainer also indicated he is entitled to a holiday.
Well the form of that RSA is not really working out but has had only two runs - the race at Down Royal it unseated which was a bit of a mess but was travelling well at the time and at Sandown looked really as if it was all too much and talk of reaching for the blinkers ( not great for Gold cup (statistic) winners and by the time the cup is run I would def like to see his reappearance but is entered for the cup and generally is 40/1 with the bookies - if he does come out before then a few quid before that race on betfair would look a very yummy bet if it performs well(and I don't do Ante Post!)
To me there are a two interesting newcomers,
-Quito De La Roque is still my fancy No1 for this track and his record is uptill now impressive. I watched all his videos and I believe, that a terrific pace, with an uphill against the best likes is just what it needs to show his best, its a stayer also optical a big athletic horse. LTO was no formmark at all, this was a slow gallop with sprint finish and he never got the chance to show off his qualities.
-The way Quel Esprit travelled in the RSA Chase until fell makes him a candidate aswell as a outsider chance, its a similar type to Carruthers making from the front, but looks to have decent stamina there aswell.
I think I will just have an eachway bet on Quel Esprit, as I think this is a well bred horse, that got the stamina from Saints des Saints and the speed from Jeune Desprit, it fits the dosage profile and is has clean career history with loads of wins. In the RSA it looked so fresh when falling, that it looked like a win chance, the race before when fell, also superbly in contention and I have the feeling that this horse could surprise at huge odds of 40+.
We will know more about Quel Esprit after his race in Thurles on 19/01/2012 tomorrow.
we will know a great deal more about him when he acts on good ground Rade - certainly tomorrow card looks a pretty good line up and the current Gold Cup price will go if he acts well - his form on good ground is abysmal - g/soft not much better - but there have been occasions in the past when Cheltenham has come up like a Bog! but he has never won in March either - but tomorrow he looks a bet on the forecast soft ground thanks for the heads up
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