Warwick 2.00
This field has two confirmed front runners with Marodima and Super Formen and I think an uncontested lead wont be there this time for tha favvy, so I like a held up horse in this, and play on Win and Place with Educated Evans 4.0 BSP. Educated Evans convinced me in Chepstow 2nd LTo against several useful horses, and seems to me that it could have gone the speed from favourite Marodima LTO. It beat useful Rilieyv and LTO was head to head against a very progreesive strong looking hot fav Sollim ( fell) finsihing far ahead of the rest. Is raised a lot but its a 7 year old and always looks strong.
Warwick 3m5f 3.40
Major Marlarkey 9.8 BSP
Faasel 12.0 BSP
Morning Moment 26.BSP
Placelay Neptune Equester 2.76 BSP
Twiston horse big bugger athletic muscular cruises held up mid division has speed and stamina in his pedigree. LTO strong performance in Sandown against good horses, Brennan back, lost energy trough slight mistakes on hard Sandown fences and lost most ground when coming back to ground after fence, this time will be easier and can hold his nice cruising speed better probably, Fortification Frontrunner (Non runner, but Twiston`s other horse Hello Bud can make the pace!)so hopefully pace, that suits this big bugger with stamina and speed, Close Head to Head against Faasel good horse ( long layoff old). Stat under first three LTO could count, as finished close and could have won also, stat just means must have good LTO form and not finsihed beaten 50 length, i interpret.
Faasel goes well fresh, likes the ground and has good weight, see again big chances if going fresh could have great chance, as Head to Head against Major Marlarkey was after tough Cheltenham race and only 37 days break and could like GS-Soft more than G-F. Went well fresh in Chelt spring 2o10 finsihing close 2nd fiinshing strongly against Grand National Winner Ballabriggs.
Morning Moment caught my eye in Haydock 3m4f against Neptune Equester on G-S, priced here as favourite, but in that race Morning Moment could have won also in my eyes. When having space for leading a group, this horse can travel very strongly and is using very long strides. Neptune Equester is a different type, that has faster but shorter strides and won there in a finish accelerating faster, but this can also go the other way around and dont see why Morning Moment couldnt finisih in front of the fav. LTO it was never travelling in any way, so maybe needed a break to make the pace again today. But odds of 26 in comparison to 7.0 for Neptune Equester is too high after they raced head to head.
I m gonna placelay Neptune Equester at these prices, because I think it had now 2 tough races in a row and Im not comnviced from this horse, it makes short strides and raced against Morning Moment off 129 and has today 136 still and two tough galloping races with one on Soft Ground in higher class. Why is Coleman on Board, that never rode the horse, also a negative for me. and then the tough race 19 days ago.
9 comments:
Eductaed Evens will have it all to do in this race methinks Rade !My money will be with Roi De Rose blinks first time and down in trip a positive for Pipe But Marodima is thrown in under a penalty and can make it 2 in a row
Roi De Rose doesnt appeal to me as it lost with 15 lenghts LTO as a 2nd against Oscar Gogo and Educated Evans beat Oscar Gogo 2nd LTO in Chepstow by a long distance, the same with Super Formen, cant have because lost LTO with 8 length to Falcon Island and Educated Evans beat Falcon Island by a long distance aswell.
The blinks should sharpen Roi and the down in trip is positive with blinks on as is first time blinks for pipe
We shall see as the saying Goes - am already green on both my selections and hope for a big front running performance from Marodima.
Roi Rose had some big back spikes early on! And will be interesting to see if Marodima can break down the field again. And Educated Evans could be a horse that is undervaluated from Head to Head comparisons from its last races.
We will see how it goes, im eager to watch and I think your Roi will def like the downtrip and this ground is a new one, raced first time out actually against some decent likes when racing on this ground and the 6th place wasnt that bad considering it raced against a few Class 2 Chasers 130+ and Chance Du Roy 145 rated Chaser beaten just 9lenghts.
Boom for Bob, Educated Evans wasnt suppose to race, was nearly pulling up before the race :)
When a horse like Educated Evans doesnt want to race and is nearly pulling up in the parade and is available to Lay at 6.4, should one lay it,or do these nervous horses sometimes race superbly after?
It was a lay in the parade - have a look at the negatives in my summing up of horses we did earlier in the week -
Roi could not jump in the blinkers first time but the money was all on Marodima anyway for a big exciting shout - can win again after being re assessed though will want a layoff.
Was well taken by Moleskin who beat some young pretenders easily
and to be honest even races I wasnt backing in gave a shout for -- aint racing grand when its as good as todays?
Send me some money mate ;) Im happy for you, its bad that you didnt put Hey Big Spender int the naps comp, but winning real money is better anyways. I looked at your list of parade observations, Educated Evans looked like a big lay in the parade, but stayed all the time 6.4 so this thing i find strange.Marodima gambled big time and inrunning it was looking like he went off too fast going up to 40s and still winning.
after its breath taking display at Fontwell and a known front runner Marodima with only a 7lbs penalty he was value and I could not believe the in running - it did not come back to them at all the field were running thier lil bums off to catch him - Obrien took a pull they caught up - were spent and he galloped to the line impressive great piece of riding hope you filled your boots
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