I had 4 races i looked at and i gave a few notes about it, that people, who are interested can follow my thoughts about my decisions when watching the replay.
FFos Lass 15.00
3m Hcp Hurdle
I started the betfair video and turned the sound off.
I laid the favourite Rathnaroughy at 3.0 BSP Inrunning ( went down 1.60 later) at about the halfway point of the race. I had a close look at the parade ring and wanted to look for horses that have good muscular buttock and a good size and move calmly but energetic and have their heads straight in a nice rythm. I couldnt make out one horse really, so I waited for the race and I noticed, that the fav Rathnaroughy went off a bit fast and I didnt like his rythm of head shaking and his head was a bit down, which thought, that this is negative. Also this horse wasnt big or eyecatching muscular. Then I thought its a 3mile race and its making the pace, doesnt jump fluently,so all these factors are negative and a chance at 3.0 Inrunning Lay. It went down further to 1.60 continuing the pacesetter, but it weakened rapidly in the closing stages finisihing 4th beaten 20 lenghts. Its not sure it was a good Lay, but its great fun to observe so closely.
Doncaster 16.25 3m Hcp Chase
I laid Amroth Bay after 1/4 of the race at 3.4 BSP, because it showed signs of weakness and negative head carriage and wasnt this fluent, dropped away from midfield and raced poorly went high over 25 BSP Inrunning, but gradually the Frontrunners dropped and Amroth Bay came back racing more determined with head carriage and moving forward finisihing 2nd in a tight finsish against the winner. Interesting, that a horse can race even during a race quite differently and I think it raced more efficient later in the race, so that it came back strongly. Another thing is that the finaly yards can be deadly for a horse and its maybe better to trade off at this point.
Was a wrong Lay in the review, but it raced different late in the race.
16.35 Ffoslass 2m5f
I backed 3/4 of the race Fleur de Vessy at 2.28 Inrunning to win, because I thought he still looks solid with his head and made a strong impression to move straight forward, the original fav Paradise Expected didnt seem stronger to me at this moment, I was true in that but i didnt look properly on the final winner Normally, which closed down heavily a way back, but it played into hands that my bet stopped running shortly before the last bend. Finished finally 2nd beaten 5 lenghts. Its maybe better to concentrate on horses, that make strong/bad impression early as then there is not such a great of an advantage for people with faster pictures and stick to observations from there and still get most of the time the prerace odds.
Doncaster 16.55 2m NHF
I backed the favourite Shotavodka at 2.3 from half way point, as I saw he was running sweetly from the front and had his act together, the horse didnt get too fast and from its size its a good type to accelerate in a sprint finish. I was right and it raced sweetly until very late ( under 1.1 Inrunning I think, when it had a bit problems with a good lead that it carried his head to the right and faded a bit not lucky to be so alone maybe and there was very strong finisher with the winner, who didnt make an impression on me before in the race and at the halfway point on early, he raced not very smoothly but had his act together late and closed down several horses and played out his stamina, was also a bigger type than the fav.
After the race, I would still play the Back again I think, as it was really just this problem, that the horse carried right at a crucial time and needed a bit to get his act again together. This was the critical point. Still would be an easy nice trade from 2.3 to 1.10-1.25 as it stayed long there.
Got beaten a nose, that says all.
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