The Frank Ward Solicitors Arkle Novice Chase is part of the supporting card of Leopardstown’s Irish Champion Hurdle day on Sunday 29th January. A grade 1 chase for novices, run over 2M 1F, it will draw many of Ireland’s main hopes for the Arkle at Cheltenham in March. The runner-up in 2009, Forpadydeplasterer, went on to win the Arkle at Cheltenham while last year’s winner, Realt Dubh, was placed in the Arkle and the runner-up, Noble Prince, won the Jewson at Cheltenham.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-0-2
6yo: 1-1-9
7yo: 7-7-34
8yo: 2-2-15
9yo+: 0-1-7
7yos have won 7 of the last 10 from exactly 50% of the total runners.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners won last time out (exception was 2nd in grade 1 Bord Na Mona)
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 40 days
7 of 10 winners ran at Leopardstown or Punchestown last time out
10 of 10 winners had run in 1 to 5 chases that season
10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 3 chases
7 of 10 winners had won or placed in a graded race
5 of 10 winners had won at Leopardstown (one other was placed on both runs here and 3 others were having first course start)
Other races
Bord Na Mona Novice Chase winner (Blackstairmountain): F21131 (3-1-6)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase winner (Flemenstar): 2 (0-1-1)
Johnny Lumley Lifetime Achievement Beginners Chase winner (Sir Des Champs): 2 (0-1-1)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase winner (Bog Warrior): 25 (0-1-2)
5 of 10 winners ran in the Bord Na Mona Novice Chase, finishing 2F111
5 of 10 winners won a chase over 2 miles at Punchestown
3 of 10 winners ran in the Drinmore Novice Chase, finishing 242
2 of 10 winners ran in the Craddockstown Novice Chase, finishing 51
Trainers
Willie Mullins (3-1-12) has won 3 of the last 10 runnings of the race, saddled the winner in 09, the runner-up in 2010 and his sole representative last year had hit the front when falling 2 out.
Noel Meade (1-0-4) trained Realt Dubh to win this last year.
Price
10 of 10 winners were priced 10/1 or shorter
No real trend on prices with all winners coming from the first 4 or 5 in the betting.
Favourites (4-3-10) have a fair record, winning 4 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 0.68.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 7
· Won last time out
· Ran in the last 40 days
· Had last run at Punchestown or Leopardstown
· Previous course winner (or having first run here)
· Finished in the first 2 in the Bord Na Mona Novice Chase
· Won a 2M chase at Punchestown
· Run in 1 to 5 chases this season (winning at least once)
· Trained by Willie Mullins
David Pipe has not taken Notus De la Tour over for the boat ride it knows how to beat Blackstairmountain on their last meeting and am looking no further than a win for pipe and powers in this one will go off in front but will be able to slow them down to get air into its lungs for the final run in
7 comments:
This is a very tight race and there is nothing convincing to me. They all raced against each other LTO and they finsihed close. The fav Blackstairmountain looks a strong stayer, but to me at these prices no bet, as it also looked outpaced LTO and if one horse today makes a better forward move it can reverse the form,Flemensstar isnt too convincing also for me has just a + 7 lenghts advantage against Baily Green, who goes out like a light late, but could be the BTL of the race at 120+ layback 60 BSP.
Foildubh a small nippy horse got LTO a bit blocked and stayed on quite nicely to go third, Kucky William looks a stayer from the size and was also close, I think these two would represent the value at the current prices, Notus De La Tour is too short for me in this field after LTo same as the two favs. My choice very small 1/10 Lucky William to place 10.5 BSP for 2 places and 1/10 Foildubh 11.5 for 2 places and 1/10 Win Lay Flemensstar at 2.88 BSP ( I just think Flemensstar isnt a great stayer and has several against him, because I think the Leoparstown race was strong.)
To show how tight I see the affair is my feeling,that even the non stayer Baily Green could improve when finding a better front running rythm to last home, as this is a bigger long strider, that can race quite long a good race, the only worry is that it will dictate his own steady rythm on the others with the optimum balance to last home.
And to your selection Notus De La Tour, its a 5 year old that just turned 6 years and has like all the front three all the chance and has the most room to improvement and finding a right time to make a forward move, a slower pace could also suit in head to head sprint against the favourite. I wouldnt bet at that price, but i would never Lay either. Do you have special reason, why it will reverse the form, from your impression of LTO? Would be interested to know.
well Baily Green ran a funny old race last time trying to make the pace up with Bog Warrior who I would love to have seen turning up for this race.Blackstairmountain had the run of the race and finished so strong simply because the front runners cut each others throats - Am expecting a fast race and that's how last years race panned out for Realt Dhub - the massive long run in will help that ones cause and as he dwells at the back will drift in betting - will take that price today - but Pipes horse is on a massive bonus if he wins at Cheltenham and they would not be risking his chances there by running him here if they think they in with more than a squeak-- hopefully they will allow him to leave the pace to others today and come with a run -even though he has wanted to front run in the past ..
Yes that i feeling aswell, if it doesnt make too much of the running is within a shout again, but anyways this is close thing after LTO. Its actually senseless to debate, whose gonna do it, as there is some luck and racepanout involved, when they finsihed so close LTO.
That was a serious performance by the winner __ wowwoww - easy to trade mine but thought it was a very indifferent performance - obv cannot be held up as I thought it could
Couldnt see the race yet, but winner must be easy.Interesting to see how different horses can place to each other two races in a row.
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