The BHP Insurance Irish Champion Hurdle Leopardstown 2.30 on Sunday 29th January. The race has been won by some of the best Irish hurdlers of recent times including Brave Inca, Hardy Eustace, Istabraq and last year, Hurricane Fly, who could make his seasonal reappearance in this. The key form race is the Leopardstown Festival Hurdle from which 5 of the last 10 winners have come.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-0-1
5yo: 0-1-7
6yo: 5-3-14
7yo: 1-4-17
8yo: 1-3-15
9yo: 1-1-5
10yo+: 2-2-10
6yos have the best record having won 5 of the last 10 renewals and were not represented in 3 of the other 5 runnings.
4 of 4 winners 8+ had previously won the Champion Hurdle or Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out
9 of 10 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season (exception making seasonal debut)
8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle (1 exception was 2nd in a grade 1 while other won the grade 3 Greatwood handicap hurdle and was having his first run at grade 1 level)
8 of 10 winners had their last run in December (5 ran in Festival Hurdle here)
8 of 10 winners had previously won at Leopardstown (1 exception was having his first course start while other was placed on both previous runs here)
Other Races
Previous year's winner (Hurricane Fly): F2222 (0-4-5)
Leopardstown Festival Hurdle winner (Unaccompanied): 121123411 (5-2-9)
Punchestown Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 31311 (3-1-5)
Morgiana Hurdle winner (Thousand Stars): 218512 (2-2-6)
Previous season Royal Bond winner (Zaidpour): 2128 (1-2-4)
Hatton's Grace winner (Voler La Vedette): 242P1 (1-2-5)
Deloitte Novice Hurdle winner (Oscars Well): 12 (1-1-2)
Lismullen Hurdle winner (Voler La Vedette): 224 (0-2-3)
Tara Hurdle winner (Zaidpour): 242 (0-2-3)
Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 372 (0-1-3)
Kempton Christmas Hurdle winner (Binocular): 5 (0-0-1)
5 of 10 winners ran in Festival Hurdle at Leopardstown last time, finishing 11311
4 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle at the previous Cheltenham Festival (2 Champion Hdl, 1 Supreme, 1 Neptune)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Morgiana, finishing 2311
4 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, finishing 1311
4 of 10 winners had run in the Hatton's Grace, finishing 3321
3 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Hurdle, finishing F21
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Future Champions Nov Hurdle, finishing 13
Trainers
Colm Murphy (2-2-7) saddled Brave Inca to gain 2 wins and 2 seconds.
Charles Byrnes (1-1-2) trained Solwhit to win this in 2010 and finish 2nd last year.
Willie Mullins (1-0-6) saddled Hurricane Fly to win it last year.
British trained runners (0-1-5) have gained just 1 place from 5 runners in the past 10 years.
Price
8 of 10 winners were priced 10/3 or shorter
This is certainly not a race for longshots with 8/1 and 9/1 the two long priced winners in the past decade.
Favourites (6-2-11) have won 6 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 2.73.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 or a previous Champion or Supreme Novices Hurdle winner
- Finished in the first 3 last time out
- Run 2 or 3 times this season
- Had its last run in December (preferably in the Festival Hurdle)
- Previously won a grade 1 hurdle
- Previously won at Leopardstown
- Finished in first 4 at 2011 Cheltenham Festival
- First 3 in Morgiana, Hatton’s Grace and/or Punchestown Champ Hurdle
- Trained in Ireland
- Priced 10/3 or shorter (favourite has a strong record)
Well it’s such a good race pity on form it’s down to how far Hurricane Fly can win by, I really do think the 5l it beat Thousand Stars (won the Morgiana with Oscars Well 5l behind) is the best form on show it’s such a good horse that can handle any going. The youngster Kalann needs decent good or fast ground (you cant dismiss its second to the real Article on soft ground last time though beating Oscars Wells into third) - keep your eye on this one quoted at 100/1 at time of writing - the other 5yr old Unaccompanied can be given a squeak and attracts me on its last run beating both Thousand Stars and Oscars Well in a fast time on soft at Leopardstown (quite easily) no 5yr old has won this race it will have to be an exceptional improver tomorrow. Based on only on piece of the stats and thats the vulnerability of the Fly on its first time out for the season its has been beaten odds on on a return from 201 days ( I know he's done well with layoff's as well) but its the return -giving this much weight to a youngster who has actually recorded as good a time for the 2miles as the champion - hdles well and has 10lbs in hand -
Bob
3 comments:
As you said the LTO form was so impressive from Hurricane Fly that think it even represents some value after the layoff, I cannot see any hors here in the sphere of the favvourite, when you come like this into gear against horses fromt these likes it just pure class to me.
If its the case that the favourite falls out completely, then I would go as you said for the madness odds of the RAG Kallan 210+, who looked LTO a good sized horse that went properly into it late and I see no reason why it shouldnt finsish against in front of 12.0 prized Oscars Wells?
My choice 10/10 Hurricane Fly Win, as he raced 11/12 with his superb performance and is today 11/10, Accompanied has lower weight, but when the favourite is flying home like this again, its an easy affair i think.
The Fly Blew them awayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy
took the even money in running cos he just looked the complete article how Could I have doubted him - acceleration out of that ground amazed me
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