Hi Guys am off to london tomorrow for a very important hospital appointment so am putting up the trends for a great race at warwick will not be on the blog - the posts are so good of late so here is something to get your teeth into
The Betfred Classic Chase, takes place at Warwick on Saturday 14th January, is a grade 3 handicap chase run over 3M 5F and is generally a good test of a horse’s Grand National credentials.
Below we take a look at the trends for 9 runnings since 2000:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-0-3
7yo: 1-6-12
8yo: 2-7-22
9yo: 2-3-30
10yo: 2-2-23
11yo: 1-1-14
12yo+: 1-1-15
No strong trend on ages.
Breeding
Irish bred: 7-10-68
French bred: 1-6-27
GB bred: 1-3-20
NZ bred: 0-1-2
USA bred: 0-0-2
Irish bred runners have won 7 of the last 9 runnings, though they have represented around 57.1% of the total runners.
French bred horses aged 8 or younger have a record of 1-6-17 whereas those aged 9 or older have a record of 0-0-10.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 5-8-58
Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 4-12-61
In recent years horses carrying bigger weights have dominated with the 4 winners and 8 of the 12 placed finishers in past 4 renewals carrying 10-9 or more.
Top weight: 544FPB0P36 (0-2-10)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 141 or higher: 0-4-20
Horses rated 129 to 140: 8-10-57
Horses rated 128 or lower: 1-6-42
The last 8 winners have all been officially rated between 129 and 140.
Recent/Past Form
8 of 9 winners finished in first 3 on last completed start (exception was 12th in Hennessy)
I like to see hennessy Runners line up for this!
8 of 9 winners (last 8) had run in past 50 days
9 of 9 winners had won a chase over 3M+ at a left-handed track
9 of 9 winners had won at least twice over fences
7 of 9 winners (last 6) had run in 10 or fewer handicap chases
6 of 9 winners (last 6) had won no more than 1 handicap chase
7 of 9 winners had contested a graded chase (1 exception had won a class 2 chase by a distance and other was runner-up in a grade 2 hurdle)
Other Races
Previous year's winner: 70 (0-0-2)
3 of 9 winners ran in previous year's Scottish National, finishing P02
3 of 9 winners ran in previous year's Grand National, finishing UU0
2 of 9 winners ran in Spinal Research H'cap Chase at Cheltenham, finishing 8P
2 of 9 winners ran in Haydock GN Trial, finishing 00
2 of 9 winners ran in Tim Molony Memorial H'cap Chase, finishing P2
Trainers
Alan King (2-2-6) has a fine record in this race, having won the last 2 renewals.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-2-9) is the only other trainer with an entrant to have won it since 2000.
Venetia Williams (0-3-8) has gained 3 places from her last 8 runners while Charlie Longsdon (0-1-1) and Ian Williams (0-1-1) have each seen their one runner make the frame.
Price
6 of 9 winners were priced between 10/1 and 25/1
No very strong trend on the prices.
Favourites (1-2-9) have won just one running since 2000, giving a level stakes loss of 3.50.
Summary:
Based on the trends from past 9 runnings you are looking for a horse:
- Irish bred or French bred aged 8 or younger
- Carrying 10-9 or more
- Officially rated 129 to 140
- Finished in first 3 on last completed start in past 50 days
- Won a chase over 3M+ at a left-handed track
- Previously won at least twice over fences
- Run in 10 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 1)
- Contested a graded chase
- Previously run in the Aintree or Scottish Grand National
- Trained by Alan King
have a great day tomorrow and study this race when you have the first chance I really love the chances of Hey Big Spender to get this trip if the ground is not too soft (predicted that way unfortunately it would test its endurance to the limit - was predicted this would be his target if he did not run in the Welsh grand national in which he fell (bugger) but its form is solid on better ground jumps for fun was going to run in the Hennessey this year but went instead to Newcastle and trounced them. considering he's top weight and the distance its a big ask for a horse who is very talented on his day (even though the stats say no)
will look again on Saturday Morning
Result --- 1 Hey Big Spender 14/1
2 Fredo 25/1 3 Strongbows Legend 9/2J
A competitive edition of this valuable handicap chase, a race formerly known as the Warwickshire Gold Cup, and there were plenty still in with a shout heading inside the final mile.
The presence of HEY BIG SPENDER in the line-up meant that half a dozen of these were out of the handicap, and he was conceding lumps of weight to most of his rivals. Steadily picking up ground from the rear, he forged to the front on the run-in and held on gamely.
This was a classy performance off 156 by the winner- he was the highest-rated runner in this since 2004 winner Behrajan - and he is likely to take his chance in the Cheltenham Gold Cup now. He jumped soundly here, but that is not always the case and he´s unlikely to go for the Grand National.
Fredo, who was well handicapped on some of his form, reportedly picked up an overreach on his last start at Ascot in November. Like the winner picking up from the rear division, he chased the leaders on the home turn and was staying on strongly after the last. He´s worth another run over a marathon trip.
Strongbows Legend ran a cracker from 5lb out of the handicap, showing in front on the home turn and only giving best after the last. He was effectively 19lb higher than when winning in desperate groundat Hereford before Christmas and is a progressive young stayer, with the switch to prominent tactics having had a positive effect.
Result --- 1 Hey Big Spender 14/1
2 Fredo 25/1 3 Strongbows Legend 9/2J
A competitive edition of this valuable handicap chase, a race formerly known as the Warwickshire Gold Cup, and there were plenty still in with a shout heading inside the final mile.
The presence of HEY BIG SPENDER in the line-up meant that half a dozen of these were out of the handicap, and he was conceding lumps of weight to most of his rivals. Steadily picking up ground from the rear, he forged to the front on the run-in and held on gamely.
This was a classy performance off 156 by the winner- he was the highest-rated runner in this since 2004 winner Behrajan - and he is likely to take his chance in the Cheltenham Gold Cup now. He jumped soundly here, but that is not always the case and he´s unlikely to go for the Grand National.
Fredo, who was well handicapped on some of his form, reportedly picked up an overreach on his last start at Ascot in November. Like the winner picking up from the rear division, he chased the leaders on the home turn and was staying on strongly after the last. He´s worth another run over a marathon trip.
Strongbows Legend ran a cracker from 5lb out of the handicap, showing in front on the home turn and only giving best after the last. He was effectively 19lb higher than when winning in desperate groundat Hereford before Christmas and is a progressive young stayer, with the switch to prominent tactics having had a positive effect.
4 comments:
Many Thanks Bob, these guides are invaluable.
The stats for Hey Big Spender are not too bad, considering that nearly all runners didnt finsih in the first 3 last time out. Just from the formbook I like Major Malarkey. 3.7 lenghts against Faasel Head to Head, Faasel beat already many horses easy, Major Malarkey good break, Major Malarkey back to easy track positive, good weights, back to 1st hand jockey Brennan, Seasonal reappearance okay finisihed 7 length to Deep Purple ( good horse 160+ close to Nacarat, Gauvain). Could be targeted for this race.
Nigel Twiston Davies two entries good for pace variations.
Major Marlarkey also big massive horse, but atlethic, had vew prob with his weight jumping sandown fences and lost energy, positive cruises sweetly held up middivision, always looking capable of making forward moves, LTO strong seasonal reappearance upthe sandownhill against strong horses optical, now new track with easier fences. Also videowise my pick here.
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