Today I have two horses popping up and both face really workable marks.
1.15 Catterick 3m2f Begginers Chase Class 5
The first one is River Dor 3.4 BSP is short but thrown into a Class 5 Beginners Chase over 3m1f today and there are again several leaders, that weaken rapidly late and this should be the chance for River Dor this time at short odds, but its facing an easier task on the optimum distance. Would have won LTO when not stumbling unnecessary at the last. The other leaders in the betting all have negatives, I watched the run from Honest John against Sarando in Carlisle and the only positive is for him today the going back toi a downhill runin, which should suit this runner as it has no tank to me, Alexander Road has to prove it can stay the trip, Dove Hill looks a stayer but his best performance in Carlisle it stayed sweetly on Heavy, but had poor Finshers against him. River Dor had a nice finish against several LTO and the winner Air Force One was a good horse.
Edit: River Dor ran a cracking race but found one better in a close finish traded down to 1.60 I think. The good thing is, that the winner was available 7.2 after 3/4 of the race despite looking strongly and was really a two horse race at this point. Credit to River Dor making the pace and racing such a strong race this time out.
River Dor is I think a horse I will follow next time out again, as its a reliable Front Runner with staying abilities and his jumping convinced me today aswell, found really a good horse on that day here to finish a head 2nd. It also reduces the field only to good runners in the end, as it is making always a strong lead and weak stayers have no chance.
Catterick 2.15 Staying 3m6f Class 3 Trophy
I have the feeling that Dermatologiste 9.0 BSP is a really good handicapped horse today at these prices in this marathon. I noted it last time out staying on very strongly against Jaunty Journey in Bangor on Dee and this trip is def one that the horse needs. It is starts today off a mark 106 in this race and the 2nd of LTO Jaunty Journey went on to finish close 3rd Off 119 next time out in a stronger Class 2 event. Dermatologiste had plenty of stamina despite a finsih against a horse that wasnt getting empty on the runin. Is sired by Kay Tara and the Dosage suggest, that its a marathon horse DP = 2-0-12-4-2 (20) DI = 0.67 CD = -0.20
Edit: Dermatologiste ran a very good race to me as expected, made several mistakes that cost, but is capable of making nice moves forward, had the feeling, that jockey Thornton made too many moves too early that cost coupled with the jumping errors quite a bit, but the first two werent that bad either on this day. Still convinced its a good stayer that can win again soon. Cool Mission the 2nd is one I noted to back off this mark and distance as I thought it gained much with is strides is a big bugger and I had the feeling is making good ground, cause of its stride length, has blinker since 2nd LTO and really convinced me to win soon, just found a very strong finsiher that was more agile and made a bad error at the last.
In the 2.05 in Fontwell i liked the way Makethemostofnow and Kings Realm travelled, Twin Bud and Promising Wings are nervous creepers that come from the back and needed in their wins heaps of whip early, but have to say finished strongly being ridden out. MakeThemostofnow doesnt appeal from the price and raced in a Class 5 Maiden so, despite his win looking strong I prefer in this race Kings Realm, when looking fit in the parade currently 7.4 BSP, as I have the feeling is the class act in this race when fit, the reason for this is that it finsihed close up to First in the Queue in FFoslass and this horse is classy on the level on Edgardo Sol, Ubi Ace and so on. The step up will do good and it proved looking easy off a strong pace or fast races and it must have improved a lot with this break, so if gettting fit for today it will be hard to beat, question is fitness and Soft ground.
Edit: Couldnt quite make out if he looks fit in the parade, but didnt look too bad, in the race you could see, that it didnt like the ground or wasnt racing like before then. weakened rapidly from halfway, which is not his style. Next time out could be value and racing much better, if having form like before and handling the ground, optimal good tendency.
9 comments:
Have both of these in a Trixie 2mz Rade. Backed Dermatologist last time as was taken by when staying on previously at Southwell over 3mile, Stayed every inch of the trip well and jumped reasonably well and agree that it could be very well handicapped.
River D'or would have been placed if hadn't tipped up LTO. Think its been knocking of late and gone with you on this 1 .
My 3rd in the Trixie is Smokey George in the 2.45 Catterick. Not been as good of late. Guessing that Mcguire is only positive as he is 2/2 on the Chestnut. Decent race and hoping get some luck :D
Promised Wings has its ground in the 2.05 at Fontwell and in my mind is ready for this trip- runs off the same mark it obtained in my private handicap before its chasing attempt last time will do for me
The marathon your both on about is pretty tricky and though a mare has won it in the past think Dermatologist has it all to do with that man Thornton riding am in so many minds this race looking to the older brigade and both Hennessey and Apache Blue attract without great conviction
good luck guys am unfortunately going to be far too busy with family commitments today
In the 1.15, it would be foolish to discount Honest John, who was a much better hurdler than these, and if they can get a lead instead of having to make all, then I can see it going close.
Promised Wings ran this time from the front and looked better than his previous runs, I think this 4 year old improved a lot this time.Nice trade for you i hope.
Just got in to watch the replays - oh dear a gamball'd animal from 100/1 to 40/1 wins the fontwell race and the bloody thing looks more like a chaser Kings Realm hated the blinkers and was mulish to say the least - promised wings ran its race well now they know he can do this will be even better further
Dermatologist was given a typical Andrew Thornton ride and is not this grade - winner and second ran well above their marks and can be considered for nationals on this showing - particularly the second
Winner of the day has to be Marodima though lads -- he will still have a ton in hand next time
Kings Realm blinkers, ah I have to look at the replay again, mulish( have to translate that word), what is a typical andrew Thornton ride? ( you were quite sceptically when you heard Thronton before, or?), Marodima have to watch the replay, mate and will try to make some thoughts up for saturday, when racing has some class. Promised Wings is how you say a bridle horse, as I understood it, you say it needs even further, on what sign do you get this feeling? Thanks for your thoughts and ideas I learned from you mate.
Hi Rade - I only meant that Kings realm was working against the blinkers trying to get its head early and not settling at all - acting like a mule! stubborn as.....I said in earlier posts that Promised Wings looked a stayer with those qualities I was expecting a step up in trip and in that race showed it to be right for him - they tried front running to get that stamina to the fore and it very nearly came off good running and steady riding - will win but am afraid its mark will suffer from that run so will be cautious cos it had a pretty hard race --
And as For Andrew Thornton -- well he is of the old Brigade and Tempus Fugit he does not have the strength of his youth --I will only back him in staying races where he can bring a horse through steady without having to push it out too much I will miss a few winners but am content in that I did Not think that a mare could beat the boys in that race with him on board - but saying that she is not up to the grade - wait for a race against her own sex is my counsel.
Just a word about first time headgear -- click on Control button when race has been analysed to see first time gear in capitals - look for trainers ( such as Pipe who excel with headgear first time)
"Not think that a mare could beat the boys in that race with him on board - but saying that she is not up to the grade - wait for a race against her own sex is my counsel."
Is there something different about females? I heard they are more volatile or emotional, like human females :) can race bad, need breaks and so on. What is the reason, you think in a female only race, is that different?
"I only meant that Kings realm was working against the blinkers trying to get its head early and not settling at all - acting like a mule!"
You mean not racing steady prominent or held up settling with the pace? Sometimes when I see blinkered horses, they seem to race like they get a bee sting in the ass and get burned, they dont race normally steady, its like they get stung and swing strange when they are running, I dont know how to describe it, but I think I know what you mean, that it weakened rapidly late then.
Thanks for your answers,
Rade
Is there something different about females? I heard they are more volatile or emotional, like human females :) can race bad, need breaks and so on. What is the reason, you think in a female only race, is that different?
YES A good mare who performs well against the boys should always have the note - "wait for mares Race" - there are plenty of them, a big strong mare from a good family who has performed well in such is often allowed to go off at a big price as her form against good male opposition is mainly discounted by the betting Fraternity who seldom look at the race conditions
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