Friday 13/01/12 - 1510 Musselburgh – 3m Handicap Chase (3)

KEY CUTTER – Front runner who won poor class 4 handicap in first time cheekpieces latest,  chase record of 2-3-8 (w-p-r) suggests possibility of more to come but has a career high mark OR125 to defy, has been beaten off OR122 in the past but conditions suit here.

SAFARI ADVENTURES – Out of form this season, down to a mark of OR123, last win June 2010 off OR120 , 0-0-4 (w-p-r) over 3m and dismissed today.

OR DE GRUGY – All four wins at Kelso and never won going right handed 0-3-12 (w-p-r), down to last winning mark OR120 but overlooked here.

FRED BOJANGALS – Course record 2-1-4(w-p-r) but has stamina to prove trying 3m for the first time. He could be in better form and would want genuine good ground or better. All things considered I’ll give him a miss.

KOSTA BRAVA – Chase record of 3-3-11 (w-p-r) and looked progressive over 2m for Howard Johnson last year, has shown nothing for new connections but maybe he’s a spring horse as his record is 2-1-4 from March to May.

LUTIN DU MOULIN – Up 9lb since easy Wetherby win in May, he could still be well handicapped here off OR112, conditions suit and this 13yo should be staying on at the finish.

SEIZE – Won at Doncaster two starts ago and up 6lb to OR112, looking through previous form tells me he needs to drop a few more pounds to be competitive again.

MORE EQUITY – Chase record of 1-6-15 (w-p-r) says she doesn’t win much but she’s back down to OR108 which is 1lb above her last winning mark, record right handed of 0-5-11 tempers enthusiasm somewhat as does winter record of 0-1-8.

ROSSINI’S DANCER – Dodgy jumper who possibly needs softer ground to be seen at his best. Decent claimer on board with first time visor, 3m suits and possibilities in a bad race.

EVERAAD – Not looked convincing over fences with form figures of P-P-3, good win here last time out over hurdles and if translating that effort he holds a big chance, but it’s a big if.

VERDICT

This doesn’t look a particularly good race and few are coming here in form over fences, I can’t have Everaard on his chase form, I can’t have Rossini’s Dancer until he jumps better, Lutin Du Moulin will be staying on and this 13yo is worth a small E/W investment So that leaves the pin to fall on Key Cutter to make the long trip up from Oxfordshire worthwhile.

1pt win KEY CUTTER @ 7/2 with Bet365 B.O.G

0.5 pt E/W LUTIN DU MOULIN @ 14/1 with Bet365 B.O.G