1510 Taunton 3m 1/2f Handicap Hurdle Class 4
TIGRE D’ARON – Disappointing on handicap & trainer debut at Cheltenham latest but too soon to write him off after only 3 runs 1-0-3 (w-p-r). Down in class and up in trip so has to be worth a second look.
PAVILLON BLEU – Hurdle record is 0-3-9, four runs this season all poor and cannot recommend until signs of improvement are forthcoming.
CARRIBS LEAP – Progressive hurdler (2-1-5) who should improve further over this trip and handle the ground as he’s by Old Vic. Well beaten on seasonal reappearance/ handicap debut but could have needed the run, mark of 118 unchanged. Interesting.
DANTARI – Best run this season last time out here over 2m3f & ran well in a number of good handicaps last season plus he’s now 4lb below his last winning mark, on the other hand he doesn’t want ground this soft and 3miles may stretch him.
QUINTE DU CHATELET – Not shown much since returning from injury, best effort latest but still 3lb higher than last winning mark & I would like to see a bit more before parting with any cash.
MAC FEDERAL – Not seen over hurdles since 2007. Wide margin winner of handicap off same mark 4 runs ago (24/02/07) and showed from a flat run at Lingfield in April he retains some ability. Definitely worth a market check to see if connections are having a nibble.
OTTER MIST – Not the quickest but last time out C/D 4th is promising, down 1lb to OR111 and he could come into this late on.
PHILADELPHUS – Handicap debut OR111, ran with promise over 2m4f last time out, interesting up in trip here but doesn’t always look a natural over his hurdles though there’s certainly scope for progress.
CARRICKMINES – Better known as a chaser but exploited hurdles mark two runs ago, ran better at Ascot than it looked last time& back down in class here. Conditions suit and should be thereabouts.
MADAME JASMINE – Handicap record of 1-0-5 & ran credibly over trip to far on return last time but 5lb above last winning mark and needs to show more.
SOVEREIGN SPIRIT – Needs better ground and well tailed off last 3 starts, leave alone until the spring.
VERDICT
Considering everything Tigre D’Aron has to rate a danger but will be plenty short enough in the betting, Carribs Leap looks interesting and has solid E/W claims, a market move for Mac Federal would be significant and Otter Mist will be staying on late. But all this leads me to Carrickmines who should go very close down in class, with conditions to suit and on an attractive hurdles mark.
CARRICKMINES 1pt Win @9/2 with Paddy Power.
4 comments:
Interesting race indeed and am happy to take you on (for a third bloody nose) I have been waiting for Philadelphus to tackle his first handicap (seems to have been clobbered !) soft ground and three miles seemed to have got the hang of hdles when the pace was increased against real Milan at Uttoxeter and was staying on eye-catching to suggest he will be ok today -
That was one of the best finishes mate mine was out like a lite after a fairly easy mistake Good man saved my bacon on this race
How much I have to pay for your tips mate? :)
Just checked the results as i've moved house over the past two days, what can I say....wish i'd had it in the Naps Table now.
Thanks for the comments lads.
My tips will resume when I get everything out of boxes, later on in the week i guess. Oh and Rade, you'll never have to pay for them mate.
Happy Punting.
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