Thought for Thought

After investigating Inrunning betting and realising, that I was blind to much more important and interesting subjects about horseracing than only bare form i found a really interesting site about horses and betting. This site is about so much and you learn a lot through their articles. This is really good work, put up together by people, who seem to me very honest about the subject and put a great effort in their work on the basis of critical thinking.

http://www.b2yor.co.uk/b2yor_articles.htm

I try to copy some of their material here and their is room for discussion about it.

"The official figures are projections from compacted & crumpled results and will be variably truthful intimations of real ability. Find a way to avoid the crude 'projection' and you ought to stumble into some unknown truths (helped by having looked at the horses properly in the Paddock)."

"5f Put another way 29 of the 35 races (83%) of the winners have either led through halfway or been within 2 lengths of the leader."

"Which is why making forward moves, against horses still going forward themselves, is such a good indicator of better ability"

"Let us say the race is from Chile and the winner in steaming clear by a double figure number of lengths towards the line and is not stopping. One commentator is ecstatically shouting "Simply supreme, a majestic performance from the best horse the country has ever bred. Unparalleled...". In the other the deadpan voice-over will be saying "..well the 1 to 10 favourite is coming home well clear there but in a slow time. That was probably the worst maiden run this side of the Andes since the thoroughbred got here....". With no other information you will now have to do a number of tasks to rate that horse, analyse it's previous and next runs in Video review, etc. B2yoR would not mind betting you would be watching live races with the sound turned down in future."

The head and neck have two effects on performance :-

• They are heavy structures carried away from the main centre of balance so they need to be in proportion and move correctly.
• They assist with the breathing (a galloping horse takes one breath per stride) with the horse exhaling as the head and neck go forward as it reaches with the front legs and they strike the ground. The horse then inhales as it lifts it's head and neck and moves into the suspension phase of the gallop (with all four feet off the ground as the hind legs recover to strike the ground under the body). If the horse does not move it's head and neck correctly then it is not going to fill it's lungs correctly.

NODDING

All the way through this article the point has been stressed that you need to take the high level view first (the "80%+") before you start worrying about the details. But it is worth finishing this section with an exampleof a detail which is worth investigating because it certainly has a noticeable effect on horse's performances.

An example has been chosen which you can investigate both with on-course paddock review and by watching races on the TV. The issue can be titled "Nodding" and refers to how a horse carries and uses its head and neck when galloping. On-course paddock review will enable you to identify whether a horse's neck and head are in proportion with it's body and how it carries the neck and head.

When watching a race look for how the horse's heads and necks move, especially how rhythmical the movement is. The classic example of excellent use of the head and neck in a metronomic, balanced and smooth way was Choisir on the firm ground at Royal Ascot and Newmarket in 2003.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=odI2pmzwNn0#t=14s

Some examples of issues to consider :-

• Look at high quality races and compare them to selling races - do you see any differences in Nodding?
• In the early stages of long distance races (including Hurdles and Steeplechases) look for the horses which are Nodding most rhythmically and efficiently. How do they perform in the race?
• What effect does this issue have with horses where their jockeys are pulling hard on the bit to stop them going forward. The received wisdom is that a horse which pulls too hard will fail because it has used up too much energy. What effect does having it's head held in one position have on it's breathing and therefore performance?

Racing Ahead articles paddock review:

http://www.b2yor.co.uk/B2yoR_PRev_Explain.htm

http://www.b2yor.co.uk/05_articles/05_007_RacingAhead_June.html

http://www.b2yor.co.uk/05_articles/05_008_RacingAhead_July.html

http://www.b2yor.co.uk/05_articles/05_009_RacingAhead_August.html

http://www.b2yor.co.uk/05_articles/05_010_RacingAhead_Sept.html

Article about Althleticism defining gaits a horse has, that is a winner.

http://www.b2yor.co.uk/05_articles/06_002_1_gaits_of_the_horse.html

Article about the horseracing scene:

http://www.b2yor.co.uk/05_articles/11_001d_1_Pointless_Punditry.html

• We see patterns where there is only randomness - (Humans work hard at trying to see patterns in any situation as our brains try to make sense of the offered input. But we take it too far and convince ourselves of patterns that are non-existent. Clouds that look like Jesus Christ at extreme levels of nonsense. Try looking at the following list of Os & Xs which represent a trainer's results with his most recent runners. Xs indicate horses who have won or made a place and Os horses that were unplaced - OXXXOXXXOXXOOOXOOXXOO. Is this stable 'in form' or on a good streak or is the pattern random?)
• We see causal relationships where there are none - (Having perceived a pattern we are desperate to apply a cause to it. In racing we can easily manage to convince ourselves that some cherished theory is working in picking winners aided by small sample sizes and cherry picking results. Which means that we need to test things formally to prove causation.)
• We overvalue confirmatory information for any given hypothesis - (Once we have our cherished theory we make sure we note and repeat any evidence which confirms it. We forget or dismiss anything counter to it. One race result fit your theory? Never shut up about it. Bluster and dismiss the others.)
• We seek out confirmatory information for any given hypothesis - (We bias the scales to make sure we find anything that supports our view. We go looking for it and adapt our approach to try to find results which fit our theory.)
• Our assessment of the quality of new evidence is biased by our previous beliefs - (The difficulty in giving up cherished ideas or accepting new ways of doing things. Worth thinking about this point all the way through this document and how it relates to the reactionary, my-eye-knows-best comments we get from a wide range of racing insiders. Along with the lack of documentation to support any of these beliefs. Think about it in relation to the huffing & puffing in response to the Australian Whip Study, and so forth.)
• We overvalue Available information, that which is made easy for us to access - (Authority figures like Racing Pundits can push what they like at you and this becomes the 'Available' information. You are now being brainwashed into this being the 'Truth' with no supporting data and research.)
• Our views and values are socially reinforced by conformity - (Again, think about the closed, insider, world of racing and how much conformity is there. How questioning anything is just not allowed. How does this affect the Pundits and reporters associated with this set-up?)
• We have a disproportionately high opinion of ourselves. We attribute success to our own internal abilities. We blame failure on external factors - (Anyone who has had a bet should recognise this. If you back a winner it is because you are the biggest genius on earth and everyone needs to know it. Backed a few losers and the jockeys are hopeless, the trainers are all bent, the other horses blocked yours in or you were unlucky (whatever that might actually mean..). Anything that lets you off the hook.)

"It's not safe to let our intuitions and prejudices run unchecked and unexamined: It's in our interest to challenge these flaws in intuitive reasoning wherever we can, and the methods of science & statistics grew up specifically in opposition to these flaws, Their thoughtful application is our best weapon against these pitfalls."

Cheers!