-Kempton 31/10/2011 2m G Novice Hurdles HS4
Plenty Pocket
Held up by Ruby Walsh and always going very easy without any whip passed easily the others in the end. Looks capable of winning at higher mark. Pace of the race was ordinary.
Kempton 31/10/2011 2m5f G Novices Hurdle HS 4
Twentyfourcarat
- Made all or most of the work during the race from the front and finished 2nd in a challenging sprint against another horse. Looks capable of winning a race like this soon. Race was at a good pace.
31/10/11 Kempton 2m4f G HcpChs 4 Autumn Spirit went out in the betting to 7.6 and I duly lumped on--- was running such a great race was watching like a mouse in a bottle and was brilliant until she fell at the last. The winner of both her starts in similar company this season, she was up another 9lb but responded well to a really positive ride. Prior to the final obstacle her jumping was good,getting most of her rivals in trouble from some way out. She simply knuckled on landing ---Made all the running and setted a solid pace. Borrowed from Robert!
31/10/11 Kempton 2m5f G HH2
- Beyond 3rd in a a truly run race , when the horse made really all the hard work from the front and still managed 3rd in the end. Just weakened the last furlong. Very strong race, fast run.
31/10/11 Kempton 2m5f G HH2
- King of the Night despite Top Weight in a really true run race very fast looked an still an easy winner in the end with room for more. Very good performance under real race condtions. Looked still fresh and not ridden out by Ruby Walsh.
31/10/2011 Kempton 3m G CH4
IHeardu
- Went 2nd but needs a faster race to play out finishing strenghts, just failed to win this because the race was slow and the winner is a more handy finisher type. Needs a faster race with real Frontrunner and play out stamina strength.
31/10/2011 Kempton 3m G CH4
Handtheprizeover
-Won this race coming well in the end, is they type that needs a slow or moderate pace and just coming in the end. I have doubts with this horse, when there is a race with more pace which is truly run, then I cant see this horse winning. Todays race was not really run very fast no real frontrunner.
31/10/11 Kempton 2m G HH4 Conditional
First Avenue
-Moderate Pace, but First Avenue struggled race behind the field and there was concern, if it could race off the pace but stay close to the field. Had phases of coming close and far to the field 3/4 of the race but managed to come close on the outer last bend which cost a bit of room and had a not the best jump. Finished 2nd accelerating like a train and maybe needs a better jockey. Bridle horse and is worth betting Inrunning if close to the field at the end. If there is too much pace I have concerns, that the horse will stay in contact with the field.
Need some feedback of you robert, hopefully I will improve my judgement.
My ideas I would like to disscuss in the future,
1.Judging every race of the day and keeping a note of every runner of the race in these 3 points:
1. Fast
2. Moderate
3. Slow
Maybe its worth just note this everyday and really type that for every runner in. Notes for a special horse can can be added too of course. Maybe its good if you open up your VFB and see the stats of a good horse at nice odds and then the note pops up that his last Hcp was in truly run race? or its maybe a value too lay a horse which finished 2nd in slow race and even weakened in the end?
So in creating notes I would not just make notes for certain horses, i would also put a F for fast M for moderate and S for Slow in all horses notebook.
2. These bridle horses are really good oppurtunities to have an late bet Inrunning at high odds, if you can watch the race at a decent connection, with not too much delay. For example First Avenue I wouldnt put up a high odds without watching the race, it just makes sense to me if it arrives close to field and you see it hypothetically odds of 25 show up because its still behind every horse and then you get the edge of knowing what kind of horse it is.
3. I would like to have more information about the dosage sires, i have no clue but it seems important to me to know what kind of class a horse is capable of.
4. Is there anybody out there who has for every course and distance a system analyser break in the VFB down saved? I would be really interested how different running styles affect outcomes on certain courses and distances?
A breakdown of every course and distance, every Trainer, every jockey, every sire would be a great statistical tool to have in hands when the raceday starts, because I think you really have to go into every Course distance into itself.
5. Pace analysis seems to be crucial even on the NH any sources of experts in this kind of area are welcomed.
6. The private Hcps feature on VfB, is it useful? how do you compile own Hcp Ratings? what is the measurement and makes it sense?
6. Sharing ideas of creating a good database of notes videos and individual importance of evaluating a race.
Cheers! rade
Monday, 31 October 2011
Bridle Horse my explanation
many good horses are considered "bridle" horses simply because of the way they travel on the bit off the pace.
It is used as both a complimentary and derisive term
A horse travelling well still having a bite on the bit. Many good animals are into this category but they also fall into the category of a horse who does not relish being pushed to win its race (not to be sneezed at with the whip rules as they stand now)
Such a horse once you have identified it also needs a jockey that can get it to travel well into its race from off the pace this takes real horsemanship. It has to arrive late with plenty of stamina left to go past tiring animals that are not going to respond to the whip ( hence my feelings the new whip rules will help the bridle horses!)
Lots of people will tell you they lay Jocks such as Timmy Murphy because he will allow an animal to find its own pace - but he is a past master of riding Bridle horses to a big price win from the back of the field - similar can be said of Spencer and Moore (but its trickier in flat races for a bridle horse to travel through a pack as the rest form walls of horseflesh!)
My opinion is that we can win money with bridle horses now the rules have changed and at decent prices too as the herd punters haven't cottoned on and will take the ride on today's bridle horse First Avenue at face value of their prejudice against them but I say its because of the inexperience of the lad riding --
But bridle horse - and top jock will reward My note against it in the VfB therefore is "bridle horse needs top jockey and maybe more than 2miles 311011"
hope that helps
Bob
todays Eye catcher and odds and sods 311011
2.05 Kempton Autumn Spirit went out in the betting to 7.6 and I duly lumped on--- was running such a great race was watching like a mouse in a bottle and was brilliant until she fell at the last. The winner of both her starts in similar company this season, she was up another 9lb but responded well to a really positive ride. Prior to the final obstacle her jumping was good,getting most of her rivals in trouble from some way out. She simply knuckled on landing ---
Lesser grade race at Plumpton by a long way 4.05 was taken by the improved form of Hawk Gold who was clean and mean at the hdles under a decent ride by the conditional David Bass who got it wrong methinks - held up looking totally happy made good headway to challenge, but his effort flattened out and his rider will no doubt be wishing he´d held on to him for longer.They will have learned from this and it will go in for sure
but those were all I saw that were positives --
as to the two races we discussed this morning First Avenue looks a total bridle horse on this showing and looks a BTL - he jumped sloppy and may have been given too much to do by this claimer travelling well into contention to show nothing when let down - can do better but needs a canny Jock
My each way selection Points of View travelled strongly till 4 out which he decided to eat and faded... -
another interesting ride came from Conor O´Farrell, The Stewards held an enquiry to consider whyrider of Laustra Bad, appeared to stop riding shortly after the last hurdle. Having heard his evidence and viewed recordings of the race, they found him inbreach of Rule (B)59.3.2.1 and guilty of failing to ride out on a horse that would have finished sixth. They suspended him for two days. ummm David Pipe horse and one to watch
did you see anything worthy of a note or two?
Bob
Lesser grade race at Plumpton by a long way 4.05 was taken by the improved form of Hawk Gold who was clean and mean at the hdles under a decent ride by the conditional David Bass who got it wrong methinks - held up looking totally happy made good headway to challenge, but his effort flattened out and his rider will no doubt be wishing he´d held on to him for longer.They will have learned from this and it will go in for sure
but those were all I saw that were positives --
as to the two races we discussed this morning First Avenue looks a total bridle horse on this showing and looks a BTL - he jumped sloppy and may have been given too much to do by this claimer travelling well into contention to show nothing when let down - can do better but needs a canny Jock
My each way selection Points of View travelled strongly till 4 out which he decided to eat and faded... -
another interesting ride came from Conor O´Farrell, The Stewards held an enquiry to consider whyrider of Laustra Bad, appeared to stop riding shortly after the last hurdle. Having heard his evidence and viewed recordings of the race, they found him inbreach of Rule (B)59.3.2.1 and guilty of failing to ride out on a horse that would have finished sixth. They suspended him for two days. ummm David Pipe horse and one to watch
did you see anything worthy of a note or two?
Bob
Useful Starting Site for horseracing!
Here`s a useful starting site to start your daily action, it contains all important sites ( attheraces,sportinglife... and so on, which then are opened in a different tab) it cuts down time.
http://homepage.eircom.net/~mysitelink/index.html
To the daily action:
I have put today my NAP in the 4.20 Kempton here i really like First Avenue the favourite imo at BSP of 4.2 the class animal always finsihing in the places and knowing Kempton. LTO in a Class 2 Hurdle Stakes here in Kempton had a very good run against much better class animals rated 138 or more then today.
Nearby and Via Galilei ran on Saturday in a record time the in an Ascot Class 1 Hurdle with Galilei finshing 2nd( Thanks to robert). First Avenue followed the decent pace whcih was set up by Near By pretty good and even made a small mistake which cost him a few lenghts, but looked still good capable of more in the end. Today in a Class 4 Hcp on favourite track facing much easier opposition and today has a really good mark to have his first win after a long time.
On Borrowed Wings 9.2 BSP imo is an animal for me that appeals in the 2.40 race, back to hurdles and has a long layoff of 200 days, but seems to run well after a long break, had a very good race LTO over Hurdles in Ascot over 20f in February in a very fast run race in Class 2 on Soft Ground and just finished 2nd but he stayed on really well and overtook many horses in the end at good acceleration. Today has Trainer Course 31% and Darryl Jacob on it and can run a good race if fresh.
Good Luck!
http://homepage.eircom.net/~mysitelink/index.html
To the daily action:
I have put today my NAP in the 4.20 Kempton here i really like First Avenue the favourite imo at BSP of 4.2 the class animal always finsihing in the places and knowing Kempton. LTO in a Class 2 Hurdle Stakes here in Kempton had a very good run against much better class animals rated 138 or more then today.
Nearby and Via Galilei ran on Saturday in a record time the in an Ascot Class 1 Hurdle with Galilei finshing 2nd( Thanks to robert). First Avenue followed the decent pace whcih was set up by Near By pretty good and even made a small mistake which cost him a few lenghts, but looked still good capable of more in the end. Today in a Class 4 Hcp on favourite track facing much easier opposition and today has a really good mark to have his first win after a long time.
On Borrowed Wings 9.2 BSP imo is an animal for me that appeals in the 2.40 race, back to hurdles and has a long layoff of 200 days, but seems to run well after a long break, had a very good race LTO over Hurdles in Ascot over 20f in February in a very fast run race in Class 2 on Soft Ground and just finished 2nd but he stayed on really well and overtook many horses in the end at good acceleration. Today has Trainer Course 31% and Darryl Jacob on it and can run a good race if fresh.
Good Luck!
Sunday, 30 October 2011
Happy lay in day!
Dont forget to set your betfair time to -1 guys....
Am looking for a big run from Lackamon in the 2.40 at Carlisle (bounce factor is the only worry for this one was so taken by its run at Hexham - my notes
first chase hexham 3m1f good ground - sprinted the bugger sprinted!!!! A stayers´ novices´ chase run at sound pace and a winning newcomer of some potential. LACKAMON, a winning Irish pointer and bumper winner, progressed to a rating of 127 over hurdles, making him the best of these. Happy to accept a lead and jumping soundly on the whole after taking charge, he had only to be kept up to his work to make a successful chasing bow. The quickish ground was not a problem and he should enjoy further success. is in a handicap today off a mark he can run to having beaten a horse rated well above this mark and is only just above his hdles mark.
note -- three have gone for this race in the VFB table -
roberttaylor03 30/10/11 14.37:21 30/10/11 2.40 CARL BAK 8 LACKAMON(GB)
BarrieH 30/10/11 14.22:05 30/10/11 2.40 CARL BAK 11 STORYMAKER(GB)
MartinL 30/10/11 12.50:04 30/10/11 2.40 CARL BAK 13 HUMBIE(IRE)
Am hoping the great form of the Smith team will come to the fore with some tasty bigger priced winners and will be watching for price changes as the yard likes a punt have taken the current 15s
result ---- The official going was changed to good to soft all round before this race.
This event was run over 3m2f in previous years. The prize money has come down, but it was still a competitive handicap. With the market leaders fighting out the finish the formhas a solid look to it, with the first five finishing well clear. The lightly weightedPOWER PACK JACK made a lot of the running and saw off his pursuers in brave style. He had unseated his rider at Stratford on Thursday, and was not always fluent here, but jumped well at times too and was certainly gutsy in victory. The blinkers he had worn on his last four starts were left off here. He will prove effective over further than this.
Qhilimar ran a sound race off an 8lb higher mark than when winning at Newton Abbot, gradually picking up the leaders but unable to pull out extra after the last. He has progressed well since joining this yard.
Humbie picked up ground under a patient ride and challenged two from home looking set to win. His jumped out to his left at the final fence, however, and his rider appeared to lose an iron. Whether he would have got past a determined rival is open to conjecture, but this was a good effort on the back of a 7lb rise for a recent C&D win.
Captain Americo travelled well for a long way and stuck on for fourth. He jumped soundly this time and confirmed that he has plenty of stamina.
Lackamon made a couple of mistakes, understandably as this was just his second run over fences. After racing prominently throughout he just missed the frame, but he will win more races in this sphere.
Earlier in the 1.40 any money late for Cloudy Too will be significant as it was a bit clumsy on its first chase was tracking the leaders well when unseating NON RUNNER
Long awaited return of Mr Moonshine back to fences in the 3.15 - this is a beautiful jumper of fences and a relentless galloper over hdles third to Cue card and Dear Sam giving them 6lbs each is better form than anything else in this race today with Henry Oliver the class act of those riding
result ---- This intermediate chase has an illustrious roll of honour. Weird Al dead-heated with Little Josh last year, and earlier winners include Tidal Bay and Monet´s Garden. The latest renewal looked a decent event, but it remains to be seen if it contained any future stars.
MR MOONSHINE made all the running under a forcing ride, piling it on turning for home and pulling well clear of the favourite to score eased almost to a walk. He was getting weight all round as a maiden over fences, having finished runner-up on his chase debut last year before reverting to hurdles. He stays further than this and has improvement in him when reverting to 3m. The handicapper will make life difficult for him following this defeat of a 149-rated rival, but he has the option of reverting to novice company.
3.00 Huntingdon Wedge has a decent mount in this on top of Theredballon who probably needs faster ground but is definitely the class act in this field and looks to have found the right race for its return
result - Theredballoon, the other penalised runner, having won for Chris Bealby in May, never got close enough to challenge, but is entitled to come on.
Finally the 3.50 carlisle and Amos runs Teviot Lass under Campbell Gillies I love this combination for the track and this horse is one that runs really well fresh -found tuns at carlisle 2m4f handicap hdle beat home intersky music 221009 but has not been see since (738 days) dropped to a class 5 today I also Very much Like Arisea in this race (though I back her in her own sex races) she has chances under this big claimer - she finished like a train last time to show her well being and can get the big place price
result ----Teviot Lass was a non runner so lumped on to Arisea -- her inexperienced jockey perhaps gave her too much to do at Uttoxeter, but he got it right this time and the mare ran out a decisive winner from off the pace. Three of her previous four hurdles successes had come in sellers, and this was her first handicap victory.
Nice Lil old Boooooooooom Day
good luck today - gotta start the lunch cooking or Nursey will be grinding her teeth !
Bob
Am looking for a big run from Lackamon in the 2.40 at Carlisle (bounce factor is the only worry for this one was so taken by its run at Hexham - my notes
first chase hexham 3m1f good ground - sprinted the bugger sprinted!!!! A stayers´ novices´ chase run at sound pace and a winning newcomer of some potential. LACKAMON, a winning Irish pointer and bumper winner, progressed to a rating of 127 over hurdles, making him the best of these. Happy to accept a lead and jumping soundly on the whole after taking charge, he had only to be kept up to his work to make a successful chasing bow. The quickish ground was not a problem and he should enjoy further success. is in a handicap today off a mark he can run to having beaten a horse rated well above this mark and is only just above his hdles mark.
note -- three have gone for this race in the VFB table -
roberttaylor03 30/10/11 14.37:21 30/10/11 2.40 CARL BAK 8 LACKAMON(GB)
BarrieH 30/10/11 14.22:05 30/10/11 2.40 CARL BAK 11 STORYMAKER(GB)
MartinL 30/10/11 12.50:04 30/10/11 2.40 CARL BAK 13 HUMBIE(IRE)
Am hoping the great form of the Smith team will come to the fore with some tasty bigger priced winners and will be watching for price changes as the yard likes a punt have taken the current 15s
result ---- The official going was changed to good to soft all round before this race.
This event was run over 3m2f in previous years. The prize money has come down, but it was still a competitive handicap. With the market leaders fighting out the finish the formhas a solid look to it, with the first five finishing well clear. The lightly weightedPOWER PACK JACK made a lot of the running and saw off his pursuers in brave style. He had unseated his rider at Stratford on Thursday, and was not always fluent here, but jumped well at times too and was certainly gutsy in victory. The blinkers he had worn on his last four starts were left off here. He will prove effective over further than this.
Qhilimar ran a sound race off an 8lb higher mark than when winning at Newton Abbot, gradually picking up the leaders but unable to pull out extra after the last. He has progressed well since joining this yard.
Humbie picked up ground under a patient ride and challenged two from home looking set to win. His jumped out to his left at the final fence, however, and his rider appeared to lose an iron. Whether he would have got past a determined rival is open to conjecture, but this was a good effort on the back of a 7lb rise for a recent C&D win.
Captain Americo travelled well for a long way and stuck on for fourth. He jumped soundly this time and confirmed that he has plenty of stamina.
Lackamon made a couple of mistakes, understandably as this was just his second run over fences. After racing prominently throughout he just missed the frame, but he will win more races in this sphere.
Earlier in the 1.40 any money late for Cloudy Too will be significant as it was a bit clumsy on its first chase was tracking the leaders well when unseating NON RUNNER
Long awaited return of Mr Moonshine back to fences in the 3.15 - this is a beautiful jumper of fences and a relentless galloper over hdles third to Cue card and Dear Sam giving them 6lbs each is better form than anything else in this race today with Henry Oliver the class act of those riding
result ---- This intermediate chase has an illustrious roll of honour. Weird Al dead-heated with Little Josh last year, and earlier winners include Tidal Bay and Monet´s Garden. The latest renewal looked a decent event, but it remains to be seen if it contained any future stars.
MR MOONSHINE made all the running under a forcing ride, piling it on turning for home and pulling well clear of the favourite to score eased almost to a walk. He was getting weight all round as a maiden over fences, having finished runner-up on his chase debut last year before reverting to hurdles. He stays further than this and has improvement in him when reverting to 3m. The handicapper will make life difficult for him following this defeat of a 149-rated rival, but he has the option of reverting to novice company.
3.00 Huntingdon Wedge has a decent mount in this on top of Theredballon who probably needs faster ground but is definitely the class act in this field and looks to have found the right race for its return
result - Theredballoon, the other penalised runner, having won for Chris Bealby in May, never got close enough to challenge, but is entitled to come on.
Finally the 3.50 carlisle and Amos runs Teviot Lass under Campbell Gillies I love this combination for the track and this horse is one that runs really well fresh -found tuns at carlisle 2m4f handicap hdle beat home intersky music 221009 but has not been see since (738 days) dropped to a class 5 today I also Very much Like Arisea in this race (though I back her in her own sex races) she has chances under this big claimer - she finished like a train last time to show her well being and can get the big place price
result ----Teviot Lass was a non runner so lumped on to Arisea -- her inexperienced jockey perhaps gave her too much to do at Uttoxeter, but he got it right this time and the mare ran out a decisive winner from off the pace. Three of her previous four hurdles successes had come in sellers, and this was her first handicap victory.
Nice Lil old Boooooooooom Day
good luck today - gotta start the lunch cooking or Nursey will be grinding her teeth !
Bob
Saturday, 29 October 2011
VFB naps table 291011
Such good racing today and have been leaving the naps table alone in the main looking to win it with a big priced animal has not payed off but its still the way to go - especially as have so much ground to make up in the next two days!
am pinning some hope on the 3.40 at Ascot and siding with my perennial nap horse Dovers Hill in this contest.
just a superbe on to follow animal that can run a race first time out - its no forlorn hope in the current exchanges at 26s and could smash these off this mark - yep he makes mistakes and yes it ran in this last year into 5th off a 10lbs lower mark but this front runner has a really lovely action - no mistake this is a very good race - where i expect him to dominate - out of Pistolet Bleu its a sound pedigree for the distance and its dams sire Fairy king has speed on its side its run at market Rasen was very good indeed my notes -
030411 cs3 3miles good ground - mark of about 136 recorded Dah of 140 This looked a very tight affair between the three market leaders, but the talented DOVER´S HILL had the race sewn up off the home turn and he made all in tremendous fashion. He has really got his act together this season and showed his class when winning at Wincanton last month. Again he had his ideal conditions here and he jumped boldly in the main, his only semblance of an error coming two out.The winner could well be capable of winning off this mark in a handicap now his confidence will be sky high
good luck in your naps today ladies and gentlemen
Bob
am pinning some hope on the 3.40 at Ascot and siding with my perennial nap horse Dovers Hill in this contest.
just a superbe on to follow animal that can run a race first time out - its no forlorn hope in the current exchanges at 26s and could smash these off this mark - yep he makes mistakes and yes it ran in this last year into 5th off a 10lbs lower mark but this front runner has a really lovely action - no mistake this is a very good race - where i expect him to dominate - out of Pistolet Bleu its a sound pedigree for the distance and its dams sire Fairy king has speed on its side its run at market Rasen was very good indeed my notes -
030411 cs3 3miles good ground - mark of about 136 recorded Dah of 140 This looked a very tight affair between the three market leaders, but the talented DOVER´S HILL had the race sewn up off the home turn and he made all in tremendous fashion. He has really got his act together this season and showed his class when winning at Wincanton last month. Again he had his ideal conditions here and he jumped boldly in the main, his only semblance of an error coming two out.The winner could well be capable of winning off this mark in a handicap now his confidence will be sky high
good luck in your naps today ladies and gentlemen
Bob
The Grade 2 Bet365 Charlie Hall Chase 3.20 Wetherby
The Grade 2 Bet365 Charlie Hall Chase takes place at Wetherby on Saturday 29th October and will be the NH highlight of the weekend. Run over 3M 1F, it generally attracts some of the best staying chasers around. Winners since 2000 include Gold Cup hero See More Business, Paddy Power Gold Cup winner Our Vic and 2006 Hennessy Gold Cup winner State Of Play. Last year Nacarat won the race from the front.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age
5yo: 0-2-3
6yo: 0-0-3
7yo: 1-3-9
8yo: 5-3-22
9yo: 2-4-15
10yo: 2-2-13
11yo+: 0-1-8
Horses aged 8 to 10 have won 9 of the last 10 from approximately 68.5% of the total runners. The one exception was Ollie Magern winning it as a 7yo and he went on to win the race again as a 9yo, proving he was particularly effective over this CD.
Official Ratings
8 of 10 winners were officially rated 151+
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had run at least 8 times over fences
10 of 10 winners had previously won at least 3 chases
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out
8 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season (both exceptions had run once that season)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) were having first chase start in over 200 days
9 of 10 winners had won a graded chase worth 25K+
9 of 10 winners had won a chase over 3M+ (exception Deep Purple had won over 2M 4F & had never run over further)
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Nacarat): 2P23 (0-3-4)
Silver Trophy Chase winner (Poquelin): 1 (1-0-1)
Previous Hennessy Gold Cup winner (Diamond Harry): F2 (0-1-2)
Aintree Bowl winner (Nacarat): P (0-0-1)
Cotswold Chase winner (Neptune Collonges): P (0-0-1)
2 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 74
2 of 10 winners ran in Cotswold Chase, finishing U6
2 of 10 winners ran in the Scottish Grand National, finishing 71
2 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Chase, finishing 21
5 of 10 winners ran at a chase at that year's Aintree National Festival
Last 10 years winners
YEAR | WINNER | AGE | WGT | SP | TRAINER | JOCKEY | |||||||
9 | 11-0 | 6/1 | |||||||||||
8 | 11-5 | 9/2 | |||||||||||
8 | 11-0 | 5/2F | |||||||||||
9 | 11-0 | 11/4 | |||||||||||
8 | 11-10 | 6/1 | |||||||||||
7 | 11-5 | 11/4F | |||||||||||
10 | 11-6 | 5/1 | |||||||||||
8 | 11-0 | 40/1 | |||||||||||
10 | 11-0 | 7/2 | |||||||||||
8 | 11-5 | 5/1 | |||||||||||
Trainers
Tom George (1-0-1) is the only trainer with an entrant to have saddled the winner in the past 10 years, doing so with Nacarat last year.
Paul Nicholls (0-3-8) saddled See More Business to win the race in 1999 & 2000 but he hasn’t won the race with any of his last 8 runners, 3 of which were sent off favourite.
Racing Tactics
8 of 10 winners (last 7) led or tracked leaders
Price
9 of 10 winners were priced 6/1 or below
Besides one shock in 2003 (40/1 shot) all other winners have come from the first 4 in the betting and have been sent off no bigger than 6/1.
Favourites (2-5-10) have won 2 of the last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 2.75.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 8 to 10
- Officially rated 151+
- Run in at least 8 chases (winning 3 or more)
- Finished in first 3 last time
- Having first run of the season
- Won a graded chase worth 25K+
- Won over 3M+
- Ran in a chase at Aintree in April
- Tends to race prominently
This years race has an uneasy look about it to my eyes from a punting angle - so many so close in the ratings - never the less this is gonna be a thriller - and you gonna be lucky to see some of the top animals for the rest of the season -
Diamond Harry holds most aces weight age and class (bred from Sir Harry Lewis) runs really well fresh is a confirmed front runner has a chink in that he hasn't won right handed tracks - but the same profile in this race as Nacarat last year NON runner withdrawn
Poquelin has the class to get Nichols into the winner enclosure again hold so many of the stats apart from the distance and this is as far as he will want to go in a fast run race with plenty taking him on.
Chicago Grey will be running with some of my pennies was taken by this animal when i was out last at cheltenham going off a sweet favvy under Carberry (Taken down early, held up in last, gradually closed from 16th, 3 lengths 3rd when mistake, stumbled and unseated rider 2 out (op 11-4 tchd 3-1 in places) today tom Scu has the ride and hes is really riding well of late He had shown some good form over fences, especially his effort chasing home favourite Time For Rupert
The idea of laying any of these animals is just too much for me at first view but maybe the short price of Poquelin (who has the class to get Nichols into the winner enclosure) again hold so many of the stats apart from the distance and this is as far as he will want to go in a fast run race with plenty taking him on. he will go very low in running.
more content to say its a cracking field that will be contested quite hard from the front giving Chicago Grey a chance to sneak home from the back - we know he can do 4 miles this quicker ground and a few of them would prefer a bit more cut
Result ---- Traditionally the first big race of the season ´proper´, and it looked a good one, with a few relatively unexposed stayers bidding to get their season off to a positive start.
It was a truly run race, as one would have expected, last year´s winner Nacarat and Time For Rupert disputing it for much of the way, and two very promising types pulled clear, with previous C&D winner WEIRD AL, making his debut for Donald McCain, staying on too strongly for the runner-up.
The lightly raced 8yo, having only the ninth start of his career, didn´t go on after winning on his reappearance last year, and was last seen bursting a blood vessel when pulling up in the Gold Cup. However, he´d reportedly been pleasing at home in the build up to this, and overcame thefact he was badly in at the weights with a few of these to deny the classy runner-up, finding plenty having travelled well throughout. No bigger than 20-1 for the Gold Cup now, it´s hoped he can go the right way from this, and being so lightly raced, there´s every chance he can improve quite a bit if staying sound. He´s entered in the Hennessy, but it remains to be seen if he takes his chance.
Last season´s RSA beaten favourite Time For Rupert, found to have bled post-race at Cheltenham, had looked the leading staying novice prior to that race (not that it was a strong bunch), and this was a good opportunity for him to prove himself. He did to an extent, appreciating a positive ride and jumping well, but he couldn´t shake the winner, and despite pulling right away from the remainder, appeared to be put in his place by Weird Al. Paul Webber expects him to come on appreciably for the run, but whilst he´s entitled to do so, he does need to, as he´s unlikely to be winning a Gold Cup on this evidence.
Last year´s 4m National Hunt Chase winner Chicago Grey, in the process of going close from a mark of 150 only to unseat on his reappearance at Cheltenham, ballooned some of his fences and became outpaced rounding the final bend, but predictably stayed on well and ended up in third. He isn´t going to be easy to place this season, but will always be worthy of respect at Cheltenham, his favourite course, and he´s the type to run well more often than not.
Last year´s winner Nacarat, conceding weight all round, likes genuine quick ground, which this wasn´t, and having been taken on, he steadily faded in the straight. The King George will be on his schedule once more.
Poquelin, very smart on his day, was up to this trip for the first time, but found himself beaten long before stamina became an issue. This isn´t the first time he´s disappointed at a relatively short price, and although clearly much better than this, he isn´t going to be easy to place this season. ( Thank goodness for the lay!)
Chief Dan George was readily dropped by the principals and will probably need a few runs before he reaches a peak. [MB]
QUOTES: Trainer Donald McCain: "Weird Al has had his problems and the idea was to get this race out of the way before making any plans. He´s in the Hennessy, but we´ll see how he comes out of this race."
It was a truly run race, as one would have expected, last year´s winner Nacarat and Time For Rupert disputing it for much of the way, and two very promising types pulled clear, with previous C&D winner WEIRD AL, making his debut for Donald McCain, staying on too strongly for the runner-up.
The lightly raced 8yo, having only the ninth start of his career, didn´t go on after winning on his reappearance last year, and was last seen bursting a blood vessel when pulling up in the Gold Cup. However, he´d reportedly been pleasing at home in the build up to this, and overcame thefact he was badly in at the weights with a few of these to deny the classy runner-up, finding plenty having travelled well throughout. No bigger than 20-1 for the Gold Cup now, it´s hoped he can go the right way from this, and being so lightly raced, there´s every chance he can improve quite a bit if staying sound. He´s entered in the Hennessy, but it remains to be seen if he takes his chance.
Last season´s RSA beaten favourite Time For Rupert, found to have bled post-race at Cheltenham, had looked the leading staying novice prior to that race (not that it was a strong bunch), and this was a good opportunity for him to prove himself. He did to an extent, appreciating a positive ride and jumping well, but he couldn´t shake the winner, and despite pulling right away from the remainder, appeared to be put in his place by Weird Al. Paul Webber expects him to come on appreciably for the run, but whilst he´s entitled to do so, he does need to, as he´s unlikely to be winning a Gold Cup on this evidence.
Last year´s 4m National Hunt Chase winner Chicago Grey, in the process of going close from a mark of 150 only to unseat on his reappearance at Cheltenham, ballooned some of his fences and became outpaced rounding the final bend, but predictably stayed on well and ended up in third. He isn´t going to be easy to place this season, but will always be worthy of respect at Cheltenham, his favourite course, and he´s the type to run well more often than not.
Last year´s winner Nacarat, conceding weight all round, likes genuine quick ground, which this wasn´t, and having been taken on, he steadily faded in the straight. The King George will be on his schedule once more.
Poquelin, very smart on his day, was up to this trip for the first time, but found himself beaten long before stamina became an issue. This isn´t the first time he´s disappointed at a relatively short price, and although clearly much better than this, he isn´t going to be easy to place this season. ( Thank goodness for the lay!)
Chief Dan George was readily dropped by the principals and will probably need a few runs before he reaches a peak. [MB]
QUOTES: Trainer Donald McCain: "Weird Al has had his problems and the idea was to get this race out of the way before making any plans. He´s in the Hennessy, but we´ll see how he comes out of this race."
Good luck all
Bob
Wednesday, 26 October 2011
Dosage and Handicapping - reply to John B posting
Lets just look at the factors as John suggests - Dosage alone will never help outside of flat stake races - and though they are major pointers to the classics we can use the sire and breeding when analysing any race as long as you don't simply focus on the stamina and sped index they are killer factors
Generally
When talking about class and horses we are mainly discussing the company they keep, or the races they have been running in. A horse who has been running in £2000 maiden claiming races at Doncaster that suddenly shows up in a Maiden at Newmarket £15000 is out-classed. I like to see horses rising steadily in class, doing well at each level and making improvements each time out. When you see a horse win by 10 lengths in £15,000 claiming race, with a decent speed figure, you still have to factor in draw / ground / course conformation. before you consider that horse worthy of being in an entry level allowance race or higher priced claiming race.
class-droppers -Dropping in class to a handicap
Figuring out how to deal with class-droppers is often more difficult than dealing with horses jumping up in class. Consider a horse coming out of a £40,000 claiming race, he ran consistent with his recent form, and finished 3rd beaten by 3 lengths. He shows up today in a £20,000 handicap. Why would the horse be entered at this low level? Is the trainer trying to win a race and build the horse's confidence? Has the horse developed a physical problem since the last race, and the trainer is trying to unload him? Does his price reflect this obvious drop in class? if it doesn't can we find the drop sufficient reason to take the odds?
For such the VFB analyser is the key making sure that dosage Sires are highlited Motivator Montjeu Alfora Flemensfirth etc should appear when your reviewing the race -- Maximum importance My analyser will highlight (Generous Sire needs 1m 4f)
As we are now in the jumps season will concentrate my answer there and take for example the 2.40 at Chepstow yesterday. There were four highlited horses from dosage sires Westerner - Generous Presenting and Oscar.
Westerner is the sire of Grandioso who went of favourite (mainly because it is now trained by Nichols -Bumper winner Grandioso was unsurprisingly popular after his new trainer won the first division with Prospect Wells, another former Howard Johnson inmate. He looked the one to be with around three out, but failed to quicken at the next flight and just looked to need the run. Ultimately this sizeable4yo´s future lies over fences, but he ought to take a deal of beating in this sphere on his next assignment.
The winner was bred from Generous - GOLDEN GAEL she had the mares allowance - was last seen breaking her duck at the fourth attempt in an Exeter bumper in April and she picked up where she left off with a taking success on her hurdling début. She travelled sweetly throughout and was cruising two out. She saw off the well-backed runner-up without much fuss and looks a useful mare in the making. In good hands, she ought to really defy a penalty against her own sex, and appeals as one to follow. in the Vfb she had the top aDH all and code and second top in Class+ with a second top rated figure for going she was ridden by O'Brien 20% strike rate at Chepstow and riding at the top of his game trained by Scot and these two have a 27% strike rate when they combine she was the biggest drop in class from an 8K race at Sandown
to me all of these factors from dosage down made her the pick of the animals with great breeding and was backed accordingly.
So My intention in writing this piece is to get you to make sure you use the analyser to include the dosage sire animals. To ensure you are looking at the very first view after running the race analyser to highlight the dosage animal before going on to look at the statistical columns.
Hope this is helpful really will appreciate your views on this brilliant topic started by John
cheers
Bob
Generally
When talking about class and horses we are mainly discussing the company they keep, or the races they have been running in. A horse who has been running in £2000 maiden claiming races at Doncaster that suddenly shows up in a Maiden at Newmarket £15000 is out-classed. I like to see horses rising steadily in class, doing well at each level and making improvements each time out. When you see a horse win by 10 lengths in £15,000 claiming race, with a decent speed figure, you still have to factor in draw / ground / course conformation. before you consider that horse worthy of being in an entry level allowance race or higher priced claiming race.
class-droppers -Dropping in class to a handicap
Figuring out how to deal with class-droppers is often more difficult than dealing with horses jumping up in class. Consider a horse coming out of a £40,000 claiming race, he ran consistent with his recent form, and finished 3rd beaten by 3 lengths. He shows up today in a £20,000 handicap. Why would the horse be entered at this low level? Is the trainer trying to win a race and build the horse's confidence? Has the horse developed a physical problem since the last race, and the trainer is trying to unload him? Does his price reflect this obvious drop in class? if it doesn't can we find the drop sufficient reason to take the odds?
For such the VFB analyser is the key making sure that dosage Sires are highlited Motivator Montjeu Alfora Flemensfirth etc should appear when your reviewing the race -- Maximum importance My analyser will highlight (Generous Sire needs 1m 4f)
As we are now in the jumps season will concentrate my answer there and take for example the 2.40 at Chepstow yesterday. There were four highlited horses from dosage sires Westerner - Generous Presenting and Oscar.
Westerner is the sire of Grandioso who went of favourite (mainly because it is now trained by Nichols -Bumper winner Grandioso was unsurprisingly popular after his new trainer won the first division with Prospect Wells, another former Howard Johnson inmate. He looked the one to be with around three out, but failed to quicken at the next flight and just looked to need the run. Ultimately this sizeable4yo´s future lies over fences, but he ought to take a deal of beating in this sphere on his next assignment.
The winner was bred from Generous - GOLDEN GAEL she had the mares allowance - was last seen breaking her duck at the fourth attempt in an Exeter bumper in April and she picked up where she left off with a taking success on her hurdling début. She travelled sweetly throughout and was cruising two out. She saw off the well-backed runner-up without much fuss and looks a useful mare in the making. In good hands, she ought to really defy a penalty against her own sex, and appeals as one to follow. in the Vfb she had the top aDH all and code and second top in Class+ with a second top rated figure for going she was ridden by O'Brien 20% strike rate at Chepstow and riding at the top of his game trained by Scot and these two have a 27% strike rate when they combine she was the biggest drop in class from an 8K race at Sandown
to me all of these factors from dosage down made her the pick of the animals with great breeding and was backed accordingly.
So My intention in writing this piece is to get you to make sure you use the analyser to include the dosage sire animals. To ensure you are looking at the very first view after running the race analyser to highlight the dosage animal before going on to look at the statistical columns.
Hope this is helpful really will appreciate your views on this brilliant topic started by John
cheers
Bob
Tuesday, 25 October 2011
Handicap
Hi Guys, does any one know of any work that I can look at to relate handicap ratings of sire bloodlines to horses running now.
I would like to see if such data could be used to predict the top handicap a horse is likely to achieve, then when a horse is improving there might be some indication of further improvement to come. It would be interesting to look at the distribution of offspring handicaps for a given sire. Combined with DFB this could be a very powerful tool in our efforts to deprive the bookies of their living.
Ive looked at dosage but its very US focused and for it to be really useful we would need access to data that could identify DI for any given horse......
and once all this is in place the horse will most likely awake on race day and refuse to run...eg Sariska!
Catterick - going!
It's absolutely pouring down at Catterick - the ground could easily be heavy today....
Catterick !! OMG ......
I loathe Catterick ..... I rarely find a winner there, but here are my thougts on the day:
2.50 Catt Gallacher - 2nd in the Mill Reef a couple of years back - usually slow away, has dropped some 35 lbs in the handicap and not won since winning a class 3 classified stakes in 2009 - this is a drop in grade and a good price
3.50 Catt Lucky Dan - won off a 2lb higher mark on the all weather recently, Paul Green does well here. This horse looks well weighted to me
4.10 Chep Express Leader - been off the track since winning its maiden - handicapper's not been harsh, fitness to be taken on trust but is a Nicholls horse
Monday, 24 October 2011
Made in the Sade
Made in the Shade 2.10 Red Was given an OR of 57 for it's nursery debut, trained by Midgeley, not a penny for it which suggests to me that although it looked well in, the wily yard are hoping it gets dropped a few pounds (wasn't put into the race) and is one to watch if dropped in the weights. -
It must be Monday!
After yeterday's abysmal day, there is some dire fayre today, but, I think I have found maybe a winner or two.
1.40 Redcar Takealookatmenow showed enough l.t.o at Redcar to suggest she is capable of winning a maiden at this level and has come in for some hefty support already (5/2 --> 15/8).
Drifted out to 11/4 but never looked like losing! Great start
2.00 Leicester Steady The Buffs could be on a good handicap mark judging by her Brighton win in a higher grade and is 3 lbs lower than when close up at Kempton l.t.o - a tasty 20/1
1.40 Redcar Takealookatmenow showed enough l.t.o at Redcar to suggest she is capable of winning a maiden at this level and has come in for some hefty support already (5/2 --> 15/8).
Drifted out to 11/4 but never looked like losing! Great start
2.00 Leicester Steady The Buffs could be on a good handicap mark judging by her Brighton win in a higher grade and is 3 lbs lower than when close up at Kempton l.t.o - a tasty 20/1
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