he Ladbrokes.com Munster National Limerick 4.35 Sunday 9th October. Previously run at Cork, it has been run at Limerick since 2001. It’s a handicap chase run over 3 miles, prize money of €80,000 will be up for grabs and last year’s winner, Golden Kite, will be trying to land back to back renewals. the morning going is yielding to soft in places I suspect the irish going and have set analyser to soft
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-3-8
7yo: 2-9-33
8yo: 5-5-30
9yo: 0-6-32
10yo: 2-0-11
11yo+: 0-0-8
Horses aged 6 to 8 have a combined record of 8-17-71 compared to horses aged 9+: 2-6-51.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-4 or higher: 3-10-53
Horses carrying 10-3 or lower: 7-12-69
7 of the last 10 winners carried 10-3 or less and in the past 2 runnings all 8 placed finishers carried 10-6 or less.
Top Weight: 1355F70250 (1-1-10)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 130 or higher: 4-7-51
Horses rated 119 to 129: 5-14-54
Horses rated 118 or lower: 1-1-17
5 of last 6 winners were officially rated 119 to 129 and they also filled 7 of the 8 places in past 2 renewals.
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners finished in first 2 on one of last two chase starts
8 of 10 winners had not run in the past 60 days
5 of 10 winners had previously won at the track (4 exceptions having first course start & other was placed on only start here)
8 of 10 winners had run in a graded chase (1 exception had run in listed chase and other exception had run in a grade 2 hurdle)
10 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 4F+
10 of 10 winners had won 2 to 5 times over fences
6 of 10 winners (6 of last 7) had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicap chases
8 of 10 winners (last 7) were 2nd or 3rd season chasers
4 of 10 winners had their last chase start at the Punchestown Festival
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Golden Kite): 22 (0-2-2)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Grand National, finishing 689
3 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Troytown, finishing 406
2 of 10 winners ran in the Kerry National, finishing F2
2 of 10 winners ran in the Galway Plate, finishing 0B
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Cork National, finishing 62
Trainers
Mouse Morris (2-1-5) has won the race twice in the last 10 years (2001 & 2003) and also saddled the 3rd last year.
Noel Meade (1-4-12) trained the winner in 2005 and had the short head 2nd in the race last year, with the winner being trained by Adrian Maguire (1-0-1).
Eric McNamara (0-2-5) trained the winner back in 1999 and 2 of his 5 runners in the past 10 years made the frame.
Charles Byrnes (0-1-1) trained Super Franky to win it in 2000 and finish 2nd in 2001 whole Paul Nolan (0-1-1) has also seen his sole representative in past 10 years make the places.
Willie Mullins (0-0-3), Dessie Hughes (0-0-3) and Charlie Swan (0-0-6) have seen their combined 12 runners all finish unplaced.
Price
No strong trend on prices with 6 winners going off 8/1 or shorter and the other 4 being priced between 12/1 and 20/1.
Favourites (2-1-11) have won the race twice in the past 10 years but show a level stakes loss of 5.25.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 6 to 8
· Carrying 10-3 or less
· Officially rated 119 to 129
· Finished in the first 2 on one of last 2 chase starts
· Course winner (or having first start here)
· Won 2 to 5 times over fences
· Won a chase over 2M 4F+
· Second or third season chaser
· Previously run in a graded chase
· Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
· Trained by Mouse Morris, Noel Meade or Eric McNamara
last year
| Limerick 16:35 ground had changed to good | |||
| 1st | 11.Golden Kite (IRE) | 42.00 | 20/1 |
| 2nd | 10.Fisher Bridge (IRE) | 27.71 | 20/1 |
| 3rd | 15.Tinakellylad (IRE) | 16.72 | 12/1 |
| 4th | 9.Duers (IRE) | 22.00 | 12/1 |
| 16 ran NR 17, 1, 18 | |||
this year there are 4 runners who contested the Kerry national - Bideford Legend - Uncle Junior - Glenstal Abbey and Sarateano (watch race on ATR)
this is as always a BTL race andthe animals with breeding to get this are
Arklow Ger and For Bill ( Presenting) -- Glenstal Abbey (Montjue)
Muirhead (Flemensfirth) and Faltering Fullback ( DoubleTrigger)
this year Montjue has run away with the distance races on flat and jumps but Glenstal Abbey form has been horrendous
Am quite interested in the training route of Faltering Fullback who ran an absolute stormer over hdles after a long layoff has beaten Tinakelly Lad giving that one 3 lbs is unexposed at this distance but should get it well with this breeding closing all the time last time to just get beaten - his siblings proved they can stay and seems happy with any ground. having won here on g/sft and proved he can do well in heavy gets off the same mark today back over fences - will do for me
joker has to be Ahorsecalledmolly who has never run on anything softer than good and trainer says thats what he needs - any drying out will bring him into the reckoning
Good Luck all
result ---This looked an open renewal but the first and second pulled clear approaching the last. The second last-fence was dolled off owing to a fall on the first circuit. They went a good gallop and it paid to be held up.
That said, being settled in the rear has its pitfalls and MUIRHEAD might easily have been brought down at the first. However, he survived, jumped with confidence thereafter and arrived there tanking as they turned in. he looks good for the trends as well being an 8 yr old and bred from Flemensfirth trained by Top winning trainer this race --
A horse of his class was always likely to win at that stage and he stayed the 3m perfectly well on ground that is perhaps close to ideal for him. Paul Carberry barely had to move to nudge him home for an easy win.
Running here off 132, he can expect at least a stone rise in the weights, but he had plenty of class overhurdles and the hike may not inconvenience him. There are plenty of options for him but connections will be wary of risking him on really deep ground.
Bideford Legend gives the form a really solid look, as he was second in the Kerry National. Again expertly prepared for the big day, he travelled like a dream and would have won easily were it not for a handicap blot. No firm plans were mentioned post-race but he is versatile with regard to the ground and has never been in better form.
Uncle Junior, ridden with considerable patience, lacks a turn of foot but he plugged on well in the final half-mile. He looks a Troytown candidate, given that he stays so well, but he´s another who wouldn´t want conditions too deep.
Elysian Rock has slipped down the weights and ran a nice race. He travelled strongly but just could not quicken with the first two when it mattered. He has won at Cork and might be worth a try in the Cork National.
Faltering Fullback was left behind down the back straight and could give no more. He plugged on as well as he could but this was a little disappointing, even for a horse who has had his problems.
Casey Top made it a good test but had no more to offer when headed, while Paul Townend never looked entirely happy on For Bill and perhaps the rigours of lumping top weight against the males took its toll. There are plenty of more races with her and her owner mentioned a mares´ contest at Clonmel for her next start. [JW]
QUOTES:: Noel Meade, trainer of Muirhead: "The plan all along was the Kerry National but the ground was so heavy, we came here instead. He doesn´t want really heavy ground. He jumped great and we´ll look at the Troytown and English Hennessy."
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