The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes takes place at Ascot Saturday 15th October at 3.35 as part of the inaugural Champions’ Day. A group 1 run over a mile, it has been won by some top class animals in the past 10 years and Frankel is looking to join the illustrious list. The winner automatically qualifies for the Breeders Cup Mile, however with the proximity of the Breeders Cup to the new date for the race, it seems unlikely the winner will head Stateside.
just atke a look at this line-up and your mouth waters
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 5-10-37
4yo: 1-2-17
5yo: 4-0-10
6yo+: 0-2-8
3 year olds have won 5 of the last 10 and filled 15 of 24 places from just over half the runners.
5 year olds also appear to do well having landed 4 of the last 10 from less than 14% of the runners. All four 5yo winners had previously won a group 1.
Gender
Fillies and mares (0-1-6) have managed just one place from 6 runners in the period (9/2, 8/1, 3/1, 5/2, 11/4, 14/1). The last female to win this was Milligram in 1987.
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out
10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season
6 of 10 winners had won a group 1
9 of 10 winners (last 9) finished in first 4 in a group 1
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won a group race
10 of 10 winners had previously won over a mile
5 of 5 winners aged 3 won a group race & contested a group 1 as a 2yo
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Poet's Voice): 642 (0-1-3)
Sussex Stakes winner (Frankel): 263121 (2-2-5)
Celebration Mile winner (Dubawi Gold): 3121 (2-0-4)
2000 Guineas winner (Frankel): 125 (1-1-3)
Prix du Moulin winner (Excelebration): 1674 (1-0-4)
St James Palace winner (Frankel): 222 (0-3-3)
Coronation Stakes winner (Immortal Verse): 2 (0-1-1)
Prix Jacques Le Marois winner (Immortal Verse): 245 (0-1-3)
Summer Mile winner (Dick Turpin): 344 (0-1-3)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Celebration Mile last time, finishing 4311
4 of 10 winners ran in the Eclipse, finishing 1862
3 of 10 winners ran in the Sussex Stakes, finishing 121
3 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 144
3 of 5 winners aged 3 ran in the Dewhurst as a 2yo, finishing 437
6 of 10 winners ran at Royal Ascot (2 St James Palace, 2 Queen Anne, 2 Prince Of Wales)
Trainers
Saeed Bin Suroor (3-4-15) has won 3 of the last 10 runnings and almost half his runners have made the frame.
Aidan O’Brien (2-5-18) has won 2 of the last 5 runnings and his record with his first string is 2-5-9.
French-trained runners (0-0-8) have failed to fill a place from 8 runners in this, including last year’s favourite, Makfi.
Price
9 of 10 winners (last 9) came from the first 3 in the betting
The Godolphin pacemaker, Summoner, stole the race at 33/1 in 2001 but that has been the only winner not to come from first 3 in the betting in past 10 years.
Favourites (3-5-10) have won 3 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 3.26.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· 3yo that won a group race at 2 & finished in first 4 in 2000G
· Or a 5yo group 1 winner
· Finished in the first 3 last time out
· Won a group race
· Finished in first 4 in a group 1 (preferably won)
· Won over a mile
· First 4 in Celebration Mile, Eclipse and/or Sussex Stakes
· Ran at Royal Ascot in 2011
· From first 3 in the betting
· Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor or Aidan O’Brien
This is the race that should give most racing pundits the colly wobbles major punts come in during the morning with late money for animals is very significant for place horses - Beethoven finished 4th last year with some really late money compressing the price from 16/1 to 14/1 in a matter of minutes just before the off having drifted from 16/1 to 20/1 during the morning and back to 14/1 as they entered the stalls.
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