The Dubai Dewhurst Stakes is the most prestigious juvenile race run in Great Britain. It takes place at Newmarket on the Saturday 8th October at 3.10 on the supporting card to the Cesarewitch. Subsequent Derby winners, Sir Percy and New Approach, have won it recently and last year the race was won by the magnificent Frankel.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age
Race for 2yos
Breeding
10 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner that won as a 2yo
10 of 10 winners were by a sire with stamina index of 8.7F to 11.2F
5 of 10 winners were by Danehill, or by a son or out of a daughter of Danehill
3 of last 5 winners were by Galileo
2 of 10 winners were by Giant's Causeway
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had run at least twice
7 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions beaten in Jean Luc Lagardere)
8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out
8 of 10 winners ran in past 35 days (2 exceptions won Vintage Stakes)
8 of 10 winners had won over 7F (both exceptions won over 6F)
7 of 10 winners had won a group race (2 exceptions were 3rd in a group 1 and other had won a 90K sales race & was having first try in a group race)
5 of 10 winners finished in first 3 in a group 1 (5 exceptions had yet to run in a group 1, 3 were unbeaten)
5 of 5 Irish-trained winners had won at Leopardstown and/or Curragh
5 of 5 British-trained winners had won at Newmarket, Goodwood and/or Ascot
Other races
National Stakes winner (Power): 11 (2-0-2)
Frank Whittle Conditions Stakes winner (Ektihaam): 51 (1-0-2)
Royal Lodge Stakes winner (Daddy Longlegs): 0971 (1-0-4)
Barronstown Stud EBF Maiden winner (David Livingston): 272 (0-2-3)
Coventry Stakes winner (Power): 2245 (0-2-4)
Washington Singer Stakes winner (Fencing): 3 (0-1-1)
Superlative Stakes winner (Red Duke): 2067 (0-1-4)
Champagne Stakes winner (Trumpet Major): 8757 (0-0-4)
4 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in the National Stakes, finishing 1163
3 of 5 British-trained winners ran in K J Pike & Sons Ltd Auct Stakes, finishing 211
3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Jean Luc Lagardere, finishing 136
Trainers
Jim Bolger (3-0-5) has won 3 of the last 5 renewals of this race.
Aidan O’Brien (2-8-23) won the race in 2009 with outsider Beethoven and also saddled Rock Of Gibraltar to win it in 2001. Record of his first string is 1-5-10.
Mick Channon (0-0-4) trained the winner in 2000 but his 4 runners in past 10 years have all finished unplaced. John Gosden (0-1-8) and Brian Meehan (0-1-6) have both saddled just one placed finisher from their representatives.
Price
This race is either won by one of the first two in the betting or a big outsider. 6 of the last 10 winners came from the first 2 in the betting while the other 4 winners went off 20/1, 33/1, 25/1 and 33/1.
Favourites (4-3-10) have won 4 of the last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 1.79.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Sired by a group 1 winner with stamina index of 8.7F to 11.2F
- By Galileo and/or out of a daughter by Danehill
- Won last time out & posted highest RPR in past 35 days
- Won over 7F
- Won a group race
- First 3 in National Stakes or K J Pike & Sons Ltd Auction Stakes
- Trained by Jim Bolger or Aidan O’Brien
Power looks to be a worthy favourite holding all the stats but I could not have been more impressed with Bronterre, he could not have been more impressive when winning his Listed race at Goodwood by five lengths, and, though he is just starting to go in his coat, he moved beautifully for Hughesie in a spin up the all-weather at Herridge on Tuesday and seems at the top of his game.
Joker in the pack has to be Red Duke more will be needed but, further improvement is highly likely and his pedigree suggests he will stay 1m at the very least. it is dangerous to underestimate him.
woooo miles off the spot
check these runners and notes for next years races
result
As well as now clashing with the Middle Park, the Dewhurst (run a week earlier than usual) followed only six days after the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere. Since 2000 a total of 17 horses came here after contesting the French race, and Rock Of Gibraltar did thedouble, while six others who took in both either won here (four) or had won the Lagardere (two). This time no horses came here from Longchamp and the absence of Dabirsim was particularly noteworthy considering he started the day as the highest rated juvenile in Europe on RPRs. Harbour Watch was another big name missing.
All bar Bronterre, who was positioned up the middle for the first 3f, raced stands´ side throughout. The first five were covered by just over a length and the form looks ordinary at best by the race´s usual standard. That´s a view supported by the clock with the time 1.07sec off the Challenge Stakes and 0.06sec slower than the Rockfel.
Jim Bolger won this three times in a row from 2006 and it went his way again courtesy of PARISH HALL, who may have been at a slight advantage in having the stands´ rail to race against in the closing stages. He hardly had the profile of a Teofilo or New Approach (first-named his sire, and both previous Bolger Dewhurst winners) as he´d been held inGroup company since his maiden win. However, he´s a big, strong colt with plenty of scope and has clearly benefited from a 49-day break, while decent ground is also considered important to him. He should make further progress.
This isn´t Guineas-winning form and his trainer sees him more of a Derby horse, but while he probably won´t have the speed for the Newmarket Classic, it would be dangerous to rule him out with there being no standout candidate. He´s 25-1 with a couple of firms.
Ryan Moore wasn´t able to go for absolutely everything on Power until inside the final furlong, having had to switch his mount away from the rail, and the way the colt finished suggests he might have been the best horse on the day. That´s far from certain, though, as it was notable he didn´t pass Parish Hall after the line. This does not represent improvement on his National Stakes-winning form and he doesn´t strike as a Newmarket Guineas winner in the making. He´s out to 14-1 in a few places.
This was a creditable performance from Most Improved considering he lacked the experience of the front two. He only had two maiden starts to his name (wide-margin winner second time) and there should be more to come. It wouldn´t surprise if Godolphin were after him.
Bronterre came here 2-2, the latest a Goodwood Listed race by 5l, but he never looked totally happy and wandered a bit under pressure. He´s capable of better.
Trumpet Major was passed over by Richard Hughes, despite having won the Champagne Stakes last time. Having lost his place at around halfway he was left with an awful lot to do before finishing strongly out widest.
Factory Time didn´t look up to this class, but he ran better than might have been expected and the step up in trip evidently suited.
Spiritual Star was supplemented after impressing with a 6l maiden win over C&D, but he wasn´t up to it.
There have been excuses for Red Duke since his success in the Superlative Stakes. This time he wasn´t helped by racing wide without cover, so it wasn´t a surprise he faded.
Ektihaam came here after winning a conditions event at Doncaster (race won last year by Frankel), but the rise in class found him out. He was too keen and found a bit of trouble when not picking up, and at no stage did Richard Hills give him a hard time.[RW]
QUOTES: Kevin Manning, rider of Parish Hall: "They went a nice even gallop, not overly fast, and he picked up out of the dip. I think seven furlongs is the minimum for him - that´s why I rode him like that."
Trainer Jim Bolger: "He´s very good on top of the ground. He´s in their [Bolger´s Dewhurst winners] league and is a very solid horse so I´d look on him as an Epsom horse."
woooo miles off the spot
check these runners and notes for next years races
result
As well as now clashing with the Middle Park, the Dewhurst (run a week earlier than usual) followed only six days after the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere. Since 2000 a total of 17 horses came here after contesting the French race, and Rock Of Gibraltar did thedouble, while six others who took in both either won here (four) or had won the Lagardere (two). This time no horses came here from Longchamp and the absence of Dabirsim was particularly noteworthy considering he started the day as the highest rated juvenile in Europe on RPRs. Harbour Watch was another big name missing.
All bar Bronterre, who was positioned up the middle for the first 3f, raced stands´ side throughout. The first five were covered by just over a length and the form looks ordinary at best by the race´s usual standard. That´s a view supported by the clock with the time 1.07sec off the Challenge Stakes and 0.06sec slower than the Rockfel.
Jim Bolger won this three times in a row from 2006 and it went his way again courtesy of PARISH HALL, who may have been at a slight advantage in having the stands´ rail to race against in the closing stages. He hardly had the profile of a Teofilo or New Approach (first-named his sire, and both previous Bolger Dewhurst winners) as he´d been held inGroup company since his maiden win. However, he´s a big, strong colt with plenty of scope and has clearly benefited from a 49-day break, while decent ground is also considered important to him. He should make further progress.
This isn´t Guineas-winning form and his trainer sees him more of a Derby horse, but while he probably won´t have the speed for the Newmarket Classic, it would be dangerous to rule him out with there being no standout candidate. He´s 25-1 with a couple of firms.
Ryan Moore wasn´t able to go for absolutely everything on Power until inside the final furlong, having had to switch his mount away from the rail, and the way the colt finished suggests he might have been the best horse on the day. That´s far from certain, though, as it was notable he didn´t pass Parish Hall after the line. This does not represent improvement on his National Stakes-winning form and he doesn´t strike as a Newmarket Guineas winner in the making. He´s out to 14-1 in a few places.
This was a creditable performance from Most Improved considering he lacked the experience of the front two. He only had two maiden starts to his name (wide-margin winner second time) and there should be more to come. It wouldn´t surprise if Godolphin were after him.
Bronterre came here 2-2, the latest a Goodwood Listed race by 5l, but he never looked totally happy and wandered a bit under pressure. He´s capable of better.
Trumpet Major was passed over by Richard Hughes, despite having won the Champagne Stakes last time. Having lost his place at around halfway he was left with an awful lot to do before finishing strongly out widest.
Factory Time didn´t look up to this class, but he ran better than might have been expected and the step up in trip evidently suited.
Spiritual Star was supplemented after impressing with a 6l maiden win over C&D, but he wasn´t up to it.
There have been excuses for Red Duke since his success in the Superlative Stakes. This time he wasn´t helped by racing wide without cover, so it wasn´t a surprise he faded.
Ektihaam came here after winning a conditions event at Doncaster (race won last year by Frankel), but the rise in class found him out. He was too keen and found a bit of trouble when not picking up, and at no stage did Richard Hills give him a hard time.[RW]
QUOTES: Kevin Manning, rider of Parish Hall: "They went a nice even gallop, not overly fast, and he picked up out of the dip. I think seven furlongs is the minimum for him - that´s why I rode him like that."
Trainer Jim Bolger: "He´s very good on top of the ground. He´s in their [Bolger´s Dewhurst winners] league and is a very solid horse so I´d look on him as an Epsom horse."
1 comment:
Power looks to be a worthy favourite holding all the stats but I could not have been more impressed with Bronterre, he could not have been more impressive when winning his Listed race at Goodwood by five lengths, and, though he is just starting to go in his coat, he moved beautifully for Hughesie in a spin up the all-weather at Herridge on Tuesday and seems at the top of his game.
Joker in the pack has to be Red Duke more will be needed but, further improvement is highly likely and his pedigree suggests he will stay 1m at the very least. it is dangerous to underestimate him.
Post a Comment