The Grade 2 Bet365 Charlie Hall Chase takes place at Wetherby on Saturday 29th October and will be the NH highlight of the weekend. Run over 3M 1F, it generally attracts some of the best staying chasers around. Winners since 2000 include Gold Cup hero See More Business, Paddy Power Gold Cup winner Our Vic and 2006 Hennessy Gold Cup winner State Of Play. Last year Nacarat won the race from the front.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age
5yo: 0-2-3
6yo: 0-0-3
7yo: 1-3-9
8yo: 5-3-22
9yo: 2-4-15
10yo: 2-2-13
11yo+: 0-1-8
Horses aged 8 to 10 have won 9 of the last 10 from approximately 68.5% of the total runners. The one exception was Ollie Magern winning it as a 7yo and he went on to win the race again as a 9yo, proving he was particularly effective over this CD.
Official Ratings
8 of 10 winners were officially rated 151+
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had run at least 8 times over fences
10 of 10 winners had previously won at least 3 chases
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out
8 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season (both exceptions had run once that season)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) were having first chase start in over 200 days
9 of 10 winners had won a graded chase worth 25K+
9 of 10 winners had won a chase over 3M+ (exception Deep Purple had won over 2M 4F & had never run over further)
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Nacarat): 2P23 (0-3-4)
Silver Trophy Chase winner (Poquelin): 1 (1-0-1)
Previous Hennessy Gold Cup winner (Diamond Harry): F2 (0-1-2)
Aintree Bowl winner (Nacarat): P (0-0-1)
Cotswold Chase winner (Neptune Collonges): P (0-0-1)
2 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 74
2 of 10 winners ran in Cotswold Chase, finishing U6
2 of 10 winners ran in the Scottish Grand National, finishing 71
2 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Chase, finishing 21
5 of 10 winners ran at a chase at that year's Aintree National Festival
Last 10 years winners
YEAR | WINNER | AGE | WGT | SP | TRAINER | JOCKEY | |||||||
9 | 11-0 | 6/1 | |||||||||||
8 | 11-5 | 9/2 | |||||||||||
8 | 11-0 | 5/2F | |||||||||||
9 | 11-0 | 11/4 | |||||||||||
8 | 11-10 | 6/1 | |||||||||||
7 | 11-5 | 11/4F | |||||||||||
10 | 11-6 | 5/1 | |||||||||||
8 | 11-0 | 40/1 | |||||||||||
10 | 11-0 | 7/2 | |||||||||||
8 | 11-5 | 5/1 | |||||||||||
Trainers
Tom George (1-0-1) is the only trainer with an entrant to have saddled the winner in the past 10 years, doing so with Nacarat last year.
Paul Nicholls (0-3-8) saddled See More Business to win the race in 1999 & 2000 but he hasn’t won the race with any of his last 8 runners, 3 of which were sent off favourite.
Racing Tactics
8 of 10 winners (last 7) led or tracked leaders
Price
9 of 10 winners were priced 6/1 or below
Besides one shock in 2003 (40/1 shot) all other winners have come from the first 4 in the betting and have been sent off no bigger than 6/1.
Favourites (2-5-10) have won 2 of the last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 2.75.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 8 to 10
- Officially rated 151+
- Run in at least 8 chases (winning 3 or more)
- Finished in first 3 last time
- Having first run of the season
- Won a graded chase worth 25K+
- Won over 3M+
- Ran in a chase at Aintree in April
- Tends to race prominently
This years race has an uneasy look about it to my eyes from a punting angle - so many so close in the ratings - never the less this is gonna be a thriller - and you gonna be lucky to see some of the top animals for the rest of the season -
Diamond Harry holds most aces weight age and class (bred from Sir Harry Lewis) runs really well fresh is a confirmed front runner has a chink in that he hasn't won right handed tracks - but the same profile in this race as Nacarat last year NON runner withdrawn
Poquelin has the class to get Nichols into the winner enclosure again hold so many of the stats apart from the distance and this is as far as he will want to go in a fast run race with plenty taking him on.
Chicago Grey will be running with some of my pennies was taken by this animal when i was out last at cheltenham going off a sweet favvy under Carberry (Taken down early, held up in last, gradually closed from 16th, 3 lengths 3rd when mistake, stumbled and unseated rider 2 out (op 11-4 tchd 3-1 in places) today tom Scu has the ride and hes is really riding well of late He had shown some good form over fences, especially his effort chasing home favourite Time For Rupert
The idea of laying any of these animals is just too much for me at first view but maybe the short price of Poquelin (who has the class to get Nichols into the winner enclosure) again hold so many of the stats apart from the distance and this is as far as he will want to go in a fast run race with plenty taking him on. he will go very low in running.
more content to say its a cracking field that will be contested quite hard from the front giving Chicago Grey a chance to sneak home from the back - we know he can do 4 miles this quicker ground and a few of them would prefer a bit more cut
Result ---- Traditionally the first big race of the season ´proper´, and it looked a good one, with a few relatively unexposed stayers bidding to get their season off to a positive start.
It was a truly run race, as one would have expected, last year´s winner Nacarat and Time For Rupert disputing it for much of the way, and two very promising types pulled clear, with previous C&D winner WEIRD AL, making his debut for Donald McCain, staying on too strongly for the runner-up.
The lightly raced 8yo, having only the ninth start of his career, didn´t go on after winning on his reappearance last year, and was last seen bursting a blood vessel when pulling up in the Gold Cup. However, he´d reportedly been pleasing at home in the build up to this, and overcame thefact he was badly in at the weights with a few of these to deny the classy runner-up, finding plenty having travelled well throughout. No bigger than 20-1 for the Gold Cup now, it´s hoped he can go the right way from this, and being so lightly raced, there´s every chance he can improve quite a bit if staying sound. He´s entered in the Hennessy, but it remains to be seen if he takes his chance.
Last season´s RSA beaten favourite Time For Rupert, found to have bled post-race at Cheltenham, had looked the leading staying novice prior to that race (not that it was a strong bunch), and this was a good opportunity for him to prove himself. He did to an extent, appreciating a positive ride and jumping well, but he couldn´t shake the winner, and despite pulling right away from the remainder, appeared to be put in his place by Weird Al. Paul Webber expects him to come on appreciably for the run, but whilst he´s entitled to do so, he does need to, as he´s unlikely to be winning a Gold Cup on this evidence.
Last year´s 4m National Hunt Chase winner Chicago Grey, in the process of going close from a mark of 150 only to unseat on his reappearance at Cheltenham, ballooned some of his fences and became outpaced rounding the final bend, but predictably stayed on well and ended up in third. He isn´t going to be easy to place this season, but will always be worthy of respect at Cheltenham, his favourite course, and he´s the type to run well more often than not.
Last year´s winner Nacarat, conceding weight all round, likes genuine quick ground, which this wasn´t, and having been taken on, he steadily faded in the straight. The King George will be on his schedule once more.
Poquelin, very smart on his day, was up to this trip for the first time, but found himself beaten long before stamina became an issue. This isn´t the first time he´s disappointed at a relatively short price, and although clearly much better than this, he isn´t going to be easy to place this season. ( Thank goodness for the lay!)
Chief Dan George was readily dropped by the principals and will probably need a few runs before he reaches a peak. [MB]
QUOTES: Trainer Donald McCain: "Weird Al has had his problems and the idea was to get this race out of the way before making any plans. He´s in the Hennessy, but we´ll see how he comes out of this race."
It was a truly run race, as one would have expected, last year´s winner Nacarat and Time For Rupert disputing it for much of the way, and two very promising types pulled clear, with previous C&D winner WEIRD AL, making his debut for Donald McCain, staying on too strongly for the runner-up.
The lightly raced 8yo, having only the ninth start of his career, didn´t go on after winning on his reappearance last year, and was last seen bursting a blood vessel when pulling up in the Gold Cup. However, he´d reportedly been pleasing at home in the build up to this, and overcame thefact he was badly in at the weights with a few of these to deny the classy runner-up, finding plenty having travelled well throughout. No bigger than 20-1 for the Gold Cup now, it´s hoped he can go the right way from this, and being so lightly raced, there´s every chance he can improve quite a bit if staying sound. He´s entered in the Hennessy, but it remains to be seen if he takes his chance.
Last season´s RSA beaten favourite Time For Rupert, found to have bled post-race at Cheltenham, had looked the leading staying novice prior to that race (not that it was a strong bunch), and this was a good opportunity for him to prove himself. He did to an extent, appreciating a positive ride and jumping well, but he couldn´t shake the winner, and despite pulling right away from the remainder, appeared to be put in his place by Weird Al. Paul Webber expects him to come on appreciably for the run, but whilst he´s entitled to do so, he does need to, as he´s unlikely to be winning a Gold Cup on this evidence.
Last year´s 4m National Hunt Chase winner Chicago Grey, in the process of going close from a mark of 150 only to unseat on his reappearance at Cheltenham, ballooned some of his fences and became outpaced rounding the final bend, but predictably stayed on well and ended up in third. He isn´t going to be easy to place this season, but will always be worthy of respect at Cheltenham, his favourite course, and he´s the type to run well more often than not.
Last year´s winner Nacarat, conceding weight all round, likes genuine quick ground, which this wasn´t, and having been taken on, he steadily faded in the straight. The King George will be on his schedule once more.
Poquelin, very smart on his day, was up to this trip for the first time, but found himself beaten long before stamina became an issue. This isn´t the first time he´s disappointed at a relatively short price, and although clearly much better than this, he isn´t going to be easy to place this season. ( Thank goodness for the lay!)
Chief Dan George was readily dropped by the principals and will probably need a few runs before he reaches a peak. [MB]
QUOTES: Trainer Donald McCain: "Weird Al has had his problems and the idea was to get this race out of the way before making any plans. He´s in the Hennessy, but we´ll see how he comes out of this race."
Good luck all
Bob
1 comment:
withdrawal of Diamond puts Nacarat into the frame now and will have Chicago Grey two in a reverse forecast. Nacrat holds the same profile as last year runs well fresh and should do the front running required. Still think this is one of the best renewals for a while and cannot wait for 3.20!
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